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Toughest semi state based on rankings ?


Jayruss

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Evansville.. without a doubt. Eville has several kids who won't make it to state but could win other semi states or be favored to place top four in other semi states. Maybe the IHSAA will redistrict  and break up the teams heading south for February. This year Evansville has the top two 1A teams, #19 2A team, five of the top 10 3A teams, three of the top nine 4A teams. Lets give West Lafayette the ECC semi state and send some Evansville teams up there! Looking at the state map, literally, the entire south of Indy goes to one semi state but the north has two and east side has one. I understand the population aspect but dang!

 

The loser of Hayhurst and Watson could WIN FW and ECC and place top 2 at NC. 

 

The loser of Conway and Rust could win ECC and FW and place top 4 at NC but one will be sent home.

 

The loser of Hunter May and Blaze Garcia could place at any other semi state but one will be sent home.

 

Cash Turner is a state placer and will run into Super Frosh Brady Ison in the ticket round. He would be top 2 at Fort Wayne. 

 

Diesel Duncan, Colin Knox, and Colton Roberts are top 15 kids who could place top 4 at any other semi state

 

 

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18 minutes ago, navy80 said:

Evansville.. without a doubt. Eville has several kids who won't make it to state but could win other semi states or be favored to place top four in other semi states. Maybe the IHSAA will redistrict  and break up the teams heading south for February. This year Evansville has the top two 1A teams, #19 2A team, five of the top 10 3A teams, three of the top nine 4A teams. Lets give West Lafayette the ECC semi state and send some Evansville teams up there! Looking at the state map, literally, the entire south of Indy goes to one semi state but the north has two and east side has one. I understand the population aspect but dang!

 

The loser of Hayhurst and Watson could WIN FW and ECC and place top 2 at NC. 

 

The loser of Conway and Rust could win ECC and FW and place top 4 at NC but one will be sent home.

 

The loser of Hunter May and Blaze Garcia could place at any other semi state but one will be sent home.

 

Cash Turner is a state placer and will run into Super Frosh Brady Ison in the ticket round. He would be top 2 at Fort Wayne. 

 

Diesel Duncan, Colin Knox, and Colton Roberts are top 15 kids who could place top 4 at any other semi state

 

 

 

If you can't tell, I am just a little bit bias. 

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40 minutes ago, navy80 said:

Evansville.. without a doubt. Eville has several kids who won't make it to state but could win other semi states or be favored to place top four in other semi states. Maybe the IHSAA will redistrict  and break up the teams heading south for February. This year Evansville has the top two 1A teams, #19 2A team, five of the top 10 3A teams, three of the top nine 4A teams. Lets give West Lafayette the ECC semi state and send some Evansville teams up there! Looking at the state map, literally, the entire south of Indy goes to one semi state but the north has two and east side has one. I understand the population aspect but dang!

 

The loser of Hayhurst and Watson could WIN FW and ECC and place top 2 at NC. 

 

The loser of Conway and Rust could win ECC and FW and place top 4 at NC but one will be sent home.

 

The loser of Hunter May and Blaze Garcia could place at any other semi state but one will be sent home.

 

Cash Turner is a state placer and will run into Super Frosh Brady Ison in the ticket round. He would be top 2 at Fort Wayne. 

 

Diesel Duncan, Colin Knox, and Colton Roberts are top 15 kids who could place top 4 at any other semi state

 

 

May vs Garcia 😳

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3 hours ago, navy80 said:

Evansville.. without a doubt. Eville has several kids who won't make it to state but could win other semi states or be favored to place top four in other semi states. Maybe the IHSAA will redistrict  and break up the teams heading south for February. This year Evansville has the top two 1A teams, #19 2A team, five of the top 10 3A teams, three of the top nine 4A teams. Lets give West Lafayette the ECC semi state and send some Evansville teams up there! Looking at the state map, literally, the entire south of Indy goes to one semi state but the north has two and east side has one. I understand the population aspect but dang!

 

The loser of Hayhurst and Watson could WIN FW and ECC and place top 2 at NC. 

 

The loser of Conway and Rust could win ECC and FW and place top 4 at NC but one will be sent home.

 

The loser of Hunter May and Blaze Garcia could place at any other semi state but one will be sent home.

 

Cash Turner is a state placer and will run into Super Frosh Brady Ison in the ticket round. He would be top 2 at Fort Wayne. 

 

Diesel Duncan, Colin Knox, and Colton Roberts are top 15 kids who could place top 4 at any other semi state

 

 

That Mooresville regional kills kids from other regionals feeding Evansville!

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My kids have wrestled in both the NC semi state and Evansville. I won’t speak for EC cause I’ve never been to it. I will say that top to bottom, Evansville is a dream crusher for so many kids that win their regional. Don’t get me wrong, there’s a lot of talent with Perry, Warren Central, Cathedral and others at NC. But having Avon, Brownsburg, Mater Dei, Franklin, Center Grove, etc feeding Evansville just crushes the hopes of kids from the smaller schools in the south. Evansville is so tough every year. Honestly, based on my kid’s weight, I am really glad he’s gonna be at NC. 

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East Chicago has 68 state ranked wrestlers.

Fort Wayne has 71 state ranked wrestlers.

New Castle has 88 state ranked wrestlers.

Jasper has 103 state ranked wrestlers.

 

--however--

 

East Chicago has 27 wrestlers ranked in the top 8.

Fort Wayne has 12 wrestlers ranked in the top 8.

New Castle has 29 wrestlers ranked in the top 8.

Jasper has 37 wrestlers ranked in the top 8.

 

--HOWEVER--

 

East Chicago has 5 #1 ranked wrestlers.

Fort Wayne has 1 #1 ranked wrestler.

New Castle has 5 #1 ranked wrestlers.

Jasper has 3 #1 ranked wrestlers.

 

These numbers probably aren't exact but I think it gives accurate enough to start forming an argument on which semi-state is the toughest, it really all depends on how you judge the toughness of a semi-state. If you go purely by ranked wrestlers, there could be a semi-state with a lot of lower ranked wrestlers, but more overall than a semi-state with less ranked wrestlers but more quality wrestlers. And of course, if you go strictly by the amount of champs that a semi-state produces, there's an argument to be made there too.

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1 minute ago, TysonNisley said:

East Chicago has 68 state ranked wrestlers.

Fort Wayne has 71 state ranked wrestlers.

New Castle has 88 state ranked wrestlers.

Jasper has 103 state ranked wrestlers.

 

--however--

 

East Chicago has 27 wrestlers ranked in the top 8.

Fort Wayne has 12 wrestlers ranked in the top 8.

New Castle has 29 wrestlers ranked in the top 8.

Jasper has 37 wrestlers ranked in the top 8.

 

--HOWEVER--

 

East Chicago has 5 #1 ranked wrestlers.

Fort Wayne has 1 #1 ranked wrestler.

New Castle has 5 #1 ranked wrestlers.

Jasper has 3 #1 ranked wrestlers.

 

These numbers probably aren't exact but I think it gives accurate enough to start forming an argument on which semi-state is the toughest, it really all depends on how you judge the toughness of a semi-state. If you go purely by ranked wrestlers, there could be a semi-state with a lot of lower ranked wrestlers, but more overall than a semi-state with less ranked wrestlers but more quality wrestlers. And of course, if you go strictly by the amount of champs that a semi-state produces, there's an argument to be made there too.

@Jayrusshere's your numbers

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103...out of a possible 224....

So almost 50% of the time you are getting a ranked wrestler.

 

I think this by far makes it the harder tournament. Yes kids ranked #1 will have an easy road (or should) and they make it hard on everyone around them... but if every kid you wrestle is ranked... thats like being at state already.

 

Mooresville regional is what kills it. Having so many studs forces people that would normally win regionals to take 2nd or 3rd and set up death draws

Edited by formercollegekid
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2 hours ago, KoontzDaddy said:

My kids have wrestled in both the NC semi state and Evansville. I won’t speak for EC cause I’ve never been to it. I will say that top to bottom, Evansville is a dream crusher for so many kids that win their regional. Don’t get me wrong, there’s a lot of talent with Perry, Warren Central, Cathedral and others at NC. But having Avon, Brownsburg, Mater Dei, Franklin, Center Grove, etc feeding Evansville just crushes the hopes of kids from the smaller schools in the south. Evansville is so tough every year. Honestly, based on my kid’s weight, I am really glad he’s gonna be at NC. 

It really does cycle, though. There are a bunch of Marion county schools that are way down right now and some of the southern schools on an upswing. There have been years when NC was clearly both the deepest and had the most champs. Merrillville/ECC had a good long run as both the deepest and most champ-filled semi-state too. Their depth has fallen way, way down despite some of the high-end talent keeping it very relevant in the later rounds at state. Even FW had long stretches historically of being strong--although it's current spot at #4 seems it's become systemic at this point since it's endured for nearly 20 years.

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1 hour ago, maligned said:

It really does cycle, though. There are a bunch of Marion county schools that are way down right now and some of the southern schools on an upswing. There have been years when NC was clearly both the deepest and had the most champs. Merrillville/ECC had a good long run as both the deepest and most champ-filled semi-state too. Their depth has fallen way, way down despite some of the high-end talent keeping it very relevant in the later rounds at state. Even FW had long stretches historically of being strong--although it's current spot at #4 seems it's become systemic at this point since it's endured for nearly 20 years.

I see your cycle, I just don’t think Indianapolis area is going to fall off anytime soon . Indianapolis Area has to many resources for these kids to train year round now . 4-5 Academies, not to mention the year club stuff schools are doing now days to keep kids active and wanting to do more during the Summer. The schools will rake the benefits of this in this area . These Academies have 4-6 year olds 50+ in their classes . That’s just 1 Academy near me . Who knows in the other Academies what their # are. Hendricks County is a Hot Bed for wrestling. This is just the beginnings of what’s to come to me . It’s pretty awesome watching it evolve. 

We’ll see I guess, time will tell .
 

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Yes, with the population and money involved, EV and NC semi-states aren't going anywhere. They are the two semi-states that have never seen a downturn. I've looked at all the state finals data by semi-state closely for placers (depth) and finalists/champs (high-end talent) since 1990. M-ville was the weakest in the early to mid-90s, FW since then. The 2 others have never spent any time at the bottom and are always within shouting distance of whichever site happens to be at the top. For that 30-year period, one of them has worn the crown of top SS for all but 6 or 7 years and that consistency isn't changing anytime soon.

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4 hours ago, TysonNisley said:

These numbers probably aren't exact but I think it gives accurate enough to start forming an argument on which semi-state is the toughest, it really all depends on how you judge the toughness of a semi-state.

I always felt the best way to judge toughest was the depth of talent that ended up being eliminated in the ticket round.  When a number of wrestlers who have a legit shot at placing in state can’t even get there I’d say that would make for a toughest Semi-State.  Now how you gage that, just like rankings, is going to be subjective at best. 
 

The other option I’d consider would be the number of state placers.  Each semi-state starts with the same number of wrestlers per weight class at state.  So, whichever SS pulls the most places from that group could be looked at as the toughest in top end talent via the results rather subjective rankings  (though always very good Mike). 

Edited by MattM
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20 minutes ago, MattM said:

I always felt the best way to judge toughest was the depth of talent that ended up being eliminated in the ticket round.  When a number of wrestlers who have a legit shot at placing in state can’t even get there I’d say that would make for a toughest Semi-State.  Now how you gage that, just like rankings, is going to be subjective at best. 
 

The other option I’d consider would be the number of state placers.  Each semi-state starts with the same number of wrestlers per weight class at state.  So, whichever SS pulls the most places from that group could be looked at as the toughest in top end talent via the results rather subjective rankings  (though always very good Mike). 

I used to compile the team points scored by all 64 individuals at each semi-state so that both number of places and quality at the top both got represented. Usually simply the number of placers gives the same ranking of the 4 sites. 

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13 hours ago, navy80 said:

Evansville.. without a doubt. Eville has several kids who won't make it to state but could win other semi states or be favored to place top four in other semi states. Maybe the IHSAA will redistrict  and break up the teams heading south for February. This year Evansville has the top two 1A teams, #19 2A team, five of the top 10 3A teams, three of the top nine 4A teams. Lets give West Lafayette the ECC semi state and send some Evansville teams up there! Looking at the state map, literally, the entire south of Indy goes to one semi state but the north has two and east side has one. I understand the population aspect but dang!

 

The loser of Hayhurst and Watson could WIN FW and ECC and place top 2 at NC. 

 

The loser of Conway and Rust could win ECC and FW and place top 4 at NC but one will be sent home.

 

The loser of Hunter May and Blaze Garcia could place at any other semi state but one will be sent home.

 

Cash Turner is a state placer and will run into Super Frosh Brady Ison in the ticket round. He would be top 2 at Fort Wayne. 

 

Diesel Duncan, Colin Knox, and Colton Roberts are top 15 kids who could place top 4 at any other semi state

 

 

I’ll take chacon over hayhurst all day. 

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3 minutes ago, Lions103 said:

I agree that the FW SS has historically been the weakest SS in the state. Does anyone have any reasoning as to why FW doesn’t have the same quality of wrestlers as other SS’s? 

HISTORICALLY is has not been the weakest, you are only thinking of the last 10 years.

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57 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

HISTORICALLY is has not been the weakest, you are only thinking of the last 10 years.

Good point Y2.  But the reason IMO FW isnt as strong as other SS like NC and Evansville (in the last 10 Years)  is  the NE quadrant of Indiana has a make up of schools with more smaller schools and less bigger schools than NC and EV.   The net result of this is there are just less kids that participate in wrestling  due to lower enrollments. Its just as statistical fact, the more enrolled kids you have in your universe,  the  higher chance you have of developing kids that can place at the higher level.  Thats the main reason.  I also think some people in ECC are in denial that they're much closer to FW and much further from EV and NC based on depth of wrestling.

Edited by Wrestling Scholar
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1 hour ago, Lions103 said:

I agree that the FW SS has historically been the weakest SS in the state. Does anyone have any reasoning as to why FW doesn’t have the same quality of wrestlers as other SS’s? 

Cause Fort Wayne has more small schools. There’s no Warren Centrals or Merrillville up here. And there’s no big wrestling private/parochial schools like a Cathedral or Mater Dei. The Fort Wayne semi state has been held up by mostly smaller schools, outside of Carroll. Doesn’t help that Yorktown has fallen off, and even they are 2A. And while RTCs like the one at Indiana Tech are trying to get a foothold, there’s nothing in the area like a Red Cobra, CIA, Mauer Coughlin, or RWA. 

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3 hours ago, WrestleMan said:

Of course you would. I'm sure you've seen a lot of Hayhurst to have an educated opinion.  

I’ve been around and seen hayhurst wrestle since middle school. I don’t think it’s fair for someone to say a Friday nighter would 100% beat an undefeated senior who was a semi finalist last year. 

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