Way Too Early State Predictions

[TysonNisley]

As a freshman in college, this will be my first year looking at the state tournament as a fan rather than a competitor, and I thought that maybe I'd make some predictions way early on to see how well I can do. I am going to state my top 3 picks in each weight class, as well as my reasoning for each of those picks, as well as a dark horse in each weight class (these aren't necessarily guys that I believe are top 3 candidates, but rather guys that I believe will place well above their ranking when we get to the state finals). Feel free to argue my picks, and maybe throw some other potential dark horses out there.

 

106: Jeffrey Bailey, Evan Dickey, Evan Seng

This became a very interesting weight class after Evan Dickey saw his #1 ranking go away at Team State after a loss to Toby Billerman. Since then, Billerman has taken two losses of his own, one to Preston haines, and a convincing revenge match from Dickey. While Jeffrey Bailey has not wrestled many of the top competitors at this weight class this year, I believe he has what it takes to win it all, and with an impressive second period tech fall over #23 E'Shawn Tolbert, my thoughts were definitely reinforced. I like Evan Seng over Toby Billerman for the third place spot, however, I think that both these guys could very easily find themselves in the first place match.

 

Dark Horse: Ashton Jackson

I'm going to try my best to keep my LaPorte bias out of these predictions, but I truly believe that Jackson could be a top 4 guy when the time comes. He has had very impressive wins during the season, such as a dominating fall over #8 Tanner Tishner and a 18-6 major decision over #12 Johnny Cortez, and has only lost to #9 at 113 Anthony Bahl, and a hiccup against #18 Jalen May. Don't count Jackson out against anybody in the state.

 

113: Alex Cottey, Isaac Ruble, Kyrel Leavell

With Logan Miller out, we won't get to see the clash of returning state champs in Miller and Cottey, but don't count Ruble out either. You would definitely think that after a year of training, and the sting of losing under the lights, that he isn't going to give up so easy. Freshman Kyrel Leavell is also somebody I wouldn't count out to make it under the lights, as he has been impressive all year. #5 Hayden Brady is another high level competitor I could see making the top 3 this year.

 

Dark Horse: Hayden DeMarco

#10 Hayden DeMarco has proven himself to be very dangerous, taking out former #1 at 106 Evan Dickey at Team State. He also has many other quality wins, and I believe he could place quite high this year. That might come down to who wins the East Chicago Semi-State between him and #9 Anthony Bahl.

 

120: Sergio Lemley, Logan Frazier, Cole Ross

Sergio Lemley seems to be the big dog in this weight class, as he is the only one with a national ranking, but I wouldn't call it a lock either. I believe that Logan Frazier has what it takes to push Sergio in the first place match, and possibly dethrone him under the lights. #3 Lane Gilbert is ranked above Cole Ross, claiming a 4-2 decision over him this season, but Ross is a senior, while Gilbert is a sophomore, and I believe that factor could give Ross a little extra juice to win that match. #5 Preston Teusch, #6 Aiden Sprague, and #7 Braxton Vest are also very capable wrestlers, and could very easily claim that 3rd place spot, or even more than that.

 

Dark Horse: Zar Walker

#17 Zar Walker sure has some footsteps to follow, and I think he's done a very good job thus far during his freshman year season. His only two losses are to #14 Justin Puckett, and #7 Braxton Vest, both by three points, and I think that Walker could most definitely reverse those outcomes when the time comes.

 

126: Zeke Seltzer, Brady Ison, Cheaney Schoeff

Zeke Seltzer is one of the few wrestlers in the state that many might consider a lock, and for good reason, as he is ranked #5 in the country right now. The big story of this weight class, however, is the rivalry between #2 Brady Ison and #3 Cheaney Schoeff. Ison leads the series 2-0, but their last encounter at sectionals a few days ago ended in an overtime bout, and it should show that Schoeff could very easily take down Ison on any given day. Wrestlers like #4 Bryce Lowery and #5 Sam Goin could also very well claim one of these top 3 spots and break up this exciting rivalry.

 

Dark Horse: Landon Bertsch

Undefeated on the year, I would imagine that #9 Landon Bertsch is hungry this year, and is looking to finally break through to the second day of the state tournament, and even make a good run on that second day as well, after two years of taking losses Friday night. Throw Bertsch right into the mix with Ison, Schoeff, Lowery, and Goin, as guys that could make a deep run this year.

 

132: Ian Heath, Alec Freeman, Aiden Torres

This weight class is WILD. Making predictions for this weight class is a very tough thing to do, as there are so many quality guys that could make a deep run in this weight class, with no clear #1 in my opinion. I like Ian Heath winning it all this year, as he has made it to the show every year in his high school career such far, and is able to compete with anybody. However, let's not forget Alec Freeman's stellar season, in which he has taken out plenty of high level guys, such as #4 Kysen Montgomery, #6 Jack Coyle (16-3!), #3 at 126 Cheaney Schoeff, and #9 David Pierson. I think that sophomore Aiden Torres is very capable of winning it all as well, but not including himself, the top NINE guys in this weight class are seniors, and I think everybody in the top nine can win this weight class.

 

Dark Horse: Cole Solomey

#10 Cole Solomey is just outside of the top nine guys I mentioned earlier, but I think that Solomey could also make a run to the top of the podium, as he lost to #3 Aiden Torres only 3-1, and is a returning placer himself.

 

138: Jesse Mendez, Blake Boarman, Delaney Ruhlman

Jesse Mendez is good. Very good. Most people would consider him to be a lock, and I would probably agree. But you have #3 Blake Boarman, who won a state title last year, and you'd think that he would be looking for another. He could've dropped to 132, or bumped to 145, and possibly won his second state title there. But here he is, at 138, and I think it was on purpose. But then you have #2 Delaney Ruhlman, only a sophomore, and was only a qualifier last year, three weight classes below. And this season, he goes and claims a MAJOR decision against Boarman, the returning state champion at this weight class. I think there is a chance, a good chance at that, that Mendez will roll through this weight class. But I also think there's a chance that it's not gonna be that easy. I am excited to see who wrestles Jesse under the lights, and if they could threaten Jesse's third consecutive title.

 

Dark Horse: Colton Roberts

#18 Colton Roberts has a decent number of losses on this season. However, when you look at these losses, you can see that he has been challenged many times this season against some of the best in the state, and he has put up a fight in all of those challenges, losing by only one point to #6 Diesel Duncan, and decision losses to both Delaney Ruhlman and Blake Boarman. Don't be surprised if you see Roberts competing for a medal this  year.

 

145: Logan Wagner, Hayden Watson, Jaden Reynolds

This is another weight class where there is definitely not a clear winner. Both Jaden Reynolds and Logan Wagner have had awesome seasons, and their only losses on the season are to each other. Hayden Watson is a guy that I think could definitely beat both of them, however, and I'm predicting that he does end up getting that win. Don't forget about #4 Cody Goodwin, who is also a state title contender, and could beat any of these three, as shown with a mere 3-1 loss to Watson.

 

Dark Horse: Brady McKivitz

It surprises me to see #25 Brady McKivitz down so low, because I feel like he most certainly has the tools to make it to the show, and even place. He has 3-0 and 4-0 losses to Goodwin and Watson, respectively, and has wins over #9 Blaze Garcia and #7 at 138 Luke Goodwin, so I think he has the tools to make it far. He did take a loss at sectionals to UR Zach Wilson, but he has beaten him earlier in the season, and I expect him to avenge that loss down the road.

 

152: Javen Estrada, Matt Koontz, Riley Rust

Matt Koontz has wrestled 132, 138, 145, and 152 this season, and it's surprising to see him settle at the heaviest of these weights. However, he has stuck both Riley Rust, and Javen Estrada, so he is no joke despite going up so much weight. However, aside from the loss to Koontz, Estrada has been extremely dominant this year, pinning #6 Brock Ellis early in the season, and claiming many more state ranked wins. #1 JaJuan Anderson is also a serious threat at this weight class, but he has not seen either Estrada or Koontz this season so far, and had one encounter with #4 Riley Rust, who he beat in overtime. Riley Rust has beaten Anderson in the past though, and both of these wrestlers last year were probably not on many people's radar, when they blew through the state tournament, and met in the semis, in which JaJuan lost an overtime match to Alec Viduya to claim second, while Rust was stuck by Reynolds to place 4th. In other words, these guys are historically ready to go when the big show comes. Other possible contenders for a top 3 spot are #5 J Conway, who is undefeated on the year, #6 Brock Ellis, who has taken a few lumps this year, but is nonetheless a great wrestler that should not be overlooked, and #7 Tyler Conley, who can compete with anybody in the state.

 

Dark Horse: Scott Fitts

#22 Scott Fitts was a state qualifier his freshman year, and has not been able to make it back to the show for another shot. However, despite being ranked so low, he wrestled a 3-1 match against the #1 guy in the weight class, showing that he has the capability to hang with anybody in the state.

 

160: Brody Baumann, Robert Major, Orlando Cruz

This is probably my favorite weight class, simply because there are so many dominant wrestlers here that have what it takes to break into the top three. Robert Major has dominated everybody he has wrestled this year, with the exception of #4 Kade Law, who he beat 7-4. However, I personally have been very impressed with Brody Baumann, who has also dominated everybody he has wrestled, including a 20-5 technical fall over #6 Tyler Jones. #3 Andrew Wilson started the season looking practically untouchable, earning wins over Kade Law, Orlando Cruz, and Tyler Jones, but eventually Kade Law avenged his loss, and Robert Major beat him 6-0. It might be a bold prediction, but I like Orlando Cruz outplacing both Kade Law and Andrew Wilson this year, but of course, this weight could go drastically different, with guys like the previously mentioned Tyler Jones, #7 Tyler Turley, #8 AJ Steenbeke, and #9 Jordan Fulks. It should be worth mentioning that both Turley and Fulks spent time this year as the #1 wrestler in the weight class, so that should show you how stacked this weight class is.

 

Dark Horse: Landon Buchanan

#10 Landon Buchanan has never made it to the Bank, but that doesn't mean that he can't hang with the best. In fact, his lone loss this season is to #2 at 170 Pate Eastin, and that match went into double overtime. Buchanan can most certainly be a top 3 wrestler if he wrestles well.

 

170: Bryer Hall, Tyler Fuqua, Pate Eastin

Bryer Hall has been a high level wrestler for a long time now, placing his freshman year, getting upset in the ticket round his sophomore year, and earning a runner up placement last year. It most definitely seems like this year is the year for Hall to win. However, there is plenty of depth in this weight class, and with that, plenty of wrestlers that can challenge Hall for the top spot. Tyler Fuqua is an exciting wrestler that can put anybody on his back, and I think that Fuqua will be the guy to wrestle Hall under the lights, although I'm not ready to say that he will be able to beat Hall, although anything can happen. Pate Eastin can also challenge both these wrestlers, and is most certainly a title contender at this weight class. But talk about the amount of talented wrestlers in this weight! #4 Brodie Porter, #5 John Purdy, #6 Sam Morrill, and many more wrestlers that could challenge for a top 3 spot. I am very excited for this weight class to go down in three weeks.

 

Dark Horse: Codei Khawaja

I'm gonna be honest, I have never heard of #11 Codei Khawaja before this season. But Khawaja had shown that he can put points on the board against high level wrestlers, as shown with a pair of major decisions against #14 Blake Wiedner and #22 Van Skinner. I think Khawaja can get on the podium this year.

 

182: Drake Buchanan, Gavin Layman, Aiden Warren

I remember earlier this season when people were curious about the matchup between #1 Aiden Warren and #2 Drake Buchanan. Then, the matchup finally happened and, well, Buchanan PINNED him. And he hasn't looked back, with falls over #25 Jaden Durnil, #12 Keon Sullivan, and a 25-8 tech fall over #6 Jalen Ward. I'm not sure if anybody can compete with Drake Buchanan, but I wouldn't count anyone out yet. #4 Gavin Layman is undefeated on the year, and has not really had any close matches himself, beating #4 at 195 Johnny Parker 5-0, and pinning #8 Colin Kwiatkowski at sectionals. I think Gavin Layman gets the better of Aiden Warren, but I think Aiden Warren will secure the 3rd place spot, although #3 Gabe Sollars and #5 Cody Timmerman are talented wrestlers too that could contend for that spot, and maybe even see themselves under the lights. Gabe Sollars eliminated Layman last year Friday night, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Sollars take that match this year.

 

Dark Horse: Keon Sullivan

#12 Keon Sullivan has taken a few losses this season, but he also had a 3-2 match with Aiden Warren, showing that he can compete with the best. From a school like Warren Central, I wouldn't put it past Sullivan to wrestle deep into the medal rounds.

 

195: Hayden Filipovich, Juan Grange, Eli Pack

This might be one of my bolder predictions, but I'm not really sure about this weight class to be honest. Eli Pack has stood as the #1 ranked wrestler at 195 all year, but has not wrestled a single ranked opponent all year, and I can't imagine that the best time to get your first test of the year is the state tournament. We will get to see Pack wrestle #3 Conner Barket at semi-state, so we will see if he is worthy of that #1 ranking. However, this is a way too early prediction, so unfortunately I will have to go with my gut here. Juan Grange is somebody that I think has been proving himself to be better and better all year, with pins against #8 Matt Lepper and #10 Gage DeMarco. I am making a bold prediction that Grange will take out Pack, and Barket too, since all three are at the same semi-state. That'll be a semi-state bracket to watch. Hayden Filipovich doesn't have many ranked wins either, but both of his ranked wins were quick falls, so you could assume that he has a good shot to win it all. But who knows, Connor Barket, or #4 Johnny Parker could claim any of these spots as well, to be honest, and #6 Harris Eason and #7 Brach Carrington should not be overlooked either.

 

Dark Horse: Ibrahim Khaoucha

#16 Ibrahim Khaoucha is better than this ranking implies. He is a former state qualifier, and was a runner-up at the always tough Al Smith classic. It looks like earlier in the year he look a weird loss, but I don't think that reflects the level that this wrestler is at. Expect to see this guy on the podium.

 

220: Evan Bates, Tristan Ruhlman, Jason Streck

Evan Bates and Tristan Ruhlman is a match that I am very excited to see. Both of these wrestlers have seen themselves in the FloWrestling national rankings, with Evan Bates being ranked as high as #5 in the country after his runner-up finish at Fargo Nationals, but is now at #13, and Tristan Ruhlman seeing himself at #19 in the country, after beating a nationally ranked opponent during an excellent run at IHPO. While Evan Bates is the clear favorite, Tristan Ruhlman is known for exceeding his expectations, as seen last year at Al Smith, when he stuck Garrett's Clayton Fielden, who was #1 in the state at the time, and was also in and out of the FloWrestling national rankings. Jason Streck looks to be the clear #3, and most certainly has the tools to place even higher. #4 David Guhl also had a 6-2 match with Evan Bates earlier this year, so he is definitely a wrestler that you cannot count out. As much as I would like to see Bates and Ruhlman, it would be awesome to see an upset happen.

 

Dark Horse: Jeff McClure

#10 Jeff McClure should make a deep run Saturday night. He has 4 losses on the season, which includes a 6-3 loss against David Guhl, a 13-3 loss against #8 Aataeveon Jordan, and two losses against Isaiah Street, who is not competing in the state tournament. Although his loss against Jordan was not close, his loss against Guhl was, and I think that his state run will depend on which version of himself shows up when the time comes.

 

285: Braydon Erb, Reeve Muncie, Leighton Jones

Braydon Erb and Reeve Muncie wrestled mid season, and Erb got the better of him, in a 3-1 win. To be honest, I think this match can go either way, but I think that I'm gonna go chalk with this matchup. Leighton Jones has not wrestled Erb or Muncie, and he is a very talented underclassman, so it would not be out of the ordinary to see him push Muncie or Erb in the semis of the state tournament to earn his spot under the lights. The reason I am not predicting that upset is because Erb and Muncie are seniors, and I think that you wrestle a little different when it's your last go. Otherwise, I might have tried to call the upset. #4 Antone Alexander is a previous qualifier, and his lone loss is a 3-1 loss against Jones, so don't count him out. #5 Jacob Johnson is another previous qualifier that could make some noise. Lastly, I'd like to note that #6 Hunter Whitenack has pinned every single opponent thus far in his junior year campaign, and this kid is a force to be reckoned with. He is a full 285 pound wrestler, and I'm pretty sure he cuts weight to make heavyweight, so watch out for this giant.

 

Dark Horse: Brock Donati

UR Brock Donati has taken some losses this season for sure, but it should be noted that he has been on the state rankings multiple times this season, and more importantly, he had a 5-2 match earlier in the year with Muncie. To be honest, I think that heavyweight is one of the most unpredictable weight classes there are, but I think that Donati has the tools to find himself at the Bank, and maybe even on the podium.

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by TysonNisley

[IU89]

Sleep on Gabe Sollars at 182 at your peril. He destroys whomever is in front of him. We’ll see him under the lights on Saturday night in a couple weeks in Indy.  

[TeamGarcia]

Going to agree with IU89 here, I Coached Gabe at Tulsa Nationals to a All-American back in the day . Kid is a and on a mission. I’m not Mater Dei fan but a HUGE Gabe Sollars Fan . I think you missed one here bud . 
You’ll become a witness soon enough .

I’ll respect your write up. Nice job by the way . 

Edited February 2, 2021 by TeamGarcia
Spelled Mater Dei wrong ... Sue Me !

[1gold]

Sollars will be hard to beat .. Could be the best show at  State !!! 

Edited February 2, 2021 by 1gold

[beaner2]

Nice Take! Solid reasoning. Thanks for your picks and post.  

[FCFIGHTER170]

10 hours ago, IU89 said:

Sleep on Gabe Sollars at 182 at your peril. He destroys whomever is in front of him. We’ll see him under the lights on Saturday night in a couple weeks in Indy.  

It'll be a bad nights rest they try sleeping on that stud, I wanna see him vs Buchanan in the finals

[JMILL]

11 hours ago, TeamGarcia said:

Going to agree with IU89 here, I Coached Gabe at Tulsa Nationals to a All-American back in the day . Kid is a and on a mission. I’m not Mater Dei fan but a HUGE Gabe Sollars Fan . I think you missed one here bud . 
You’ll become a witness soon enough .

I’ll respect your write up. Nice job by the way . 

I def agree about Gabe, great kid from a great family.  Only issue here @IU89 & @TeamGarcia is that he did not actually sleep on Gabe, he put him in the write up and covered his bases by saying:

"#3 Gabe Sollars and #5 Cody Timmerman are talented wrestlers too that could contend for that spot, and maybe even see themselves under the lights"

 

So with that said, I would say great write up overall @TysonNisley ; best of luck to you in college and the remainder of your journey.

 

Good luck to all the kids competing and I hope for safe competition for all.

[hook and half]

Great write up!

[slingerbailey]

Very well put together. Looks great and you got some good picks in there!!! Can’t wait to see how post season unfolds.

[busstogate]

Well-thought out analyses!  Thank for your hard work.

[TeamGarcia]

2 hours ago, JMILL said:

I def agree about Gabe, great kid from a great family.  Only issue here @IU89 & @TeamGarcia is that he did not actually sleep on Gabe, he put him in the write up and covered his bases by saying:

"#3 Gabe Sollars and #5 Cody Timmerman are talented wrestlers too that could contend for that spot, and maybe even see themselves under the lights"

 

So with that said, I would say great write up overall @TysonNisley ; best of luck to you in college and the remainder of your journey.

 

Good luck to all the kids competing and I hope for safe competition for all.

Going to break it down on why Tyson is sleeping on my Gabe Sollars .
 

1. He obviously used the word “maybe” that you helped him out to underlined it . 
So..... he took some NyQuil right before he wrote that last paragraph #amirite . Tyson was so sleepy while he wrote this he forgot to put Gabe in his Top 3 at the top of his Breakdown of 182 weight class . 

 

Therefore...... he was real tired and falling asleep as a College students usually are. I know I have a few kids in College now they do this . 

 

That’s it ! 
 

Notorious
 

 

[TysonNisley]

This write up was done during my ECON class so maybe I didn't pay enough attention on the heavier weights lol. I think Gabe Sollars obviously has the potential to wrestle under the lights, but I also think the other three I mentioned do as well, and well, what fun is making predictions if I go chalk for every weight?

[base]

That was a great writeup and analysis thanks Tyson and good luck in school!

[TeamGarcia]

21 minutes ago, TysonNisley said:

This write up was done during my ECON class so maybe I didn't pay enough attention on the heavier weights lol. I think Gabe Sollars obviously has the potential to wrestle under the lights, but I also think the other three I mentioned do as well, and well, what fun is making predictions if I go chalk for every weight?

Totally agree with ya ! No need to explain. You just keep writing these excellent reviews to read . Can’t wait to read your real State Finals breakdown Champ. 

I’m Just trying to make my Brother laugh @JMILL. Love ya bro

[Y2CJ41]

1 hour ago, TeamGarcia said:

Totally agree with ya ! No need to explain. You just keep writing these excellent reviews to read . Can’t wait to read your real State Finals breakdown Champ. 

I’m Just trying to make my Brother laugh @JMILL. Love ya bro

You and @JMILLare brothers? Goodness what is going on in this world.

[TeamGarcia]

Born on the same day December 4th . He’s my older Brother from another Mother 

[BrennanFan]

Nice post Tyson, me and my Father really enjoyed. 

 

I'm looking forward to Ruhlman vs. Mendez under the lights. 

[1gold]

It was a great read Tyson .. Keep'em coming !  

[TysonNisley]

On 2/1/2021 at 8:36 PM, IU89 said:

Sleep on Gabe Sollars at 182 at your peril. He destroys whomever is in front of him. We’ll see him under the lights on Saturday night in a couple weeks in Indy.  

Welp, this aged well for you, Sollars pinned Buchanan today after Buchanan has looked untouchable all year. I can't wait to see the results of next weekend.

[FCFIGHTER170]

31 minutes ago, TysonNisley said:

Welp, this aged well for you, Sollars pinned Buchanan today after Buchanan has looked untouchable all year. I can't wait to see the results of next weekend.

You picking McClure at 220 aged well! Pinned Viel then came back to beat Dark Horse himself Jack Taylor in the finals! Jack beating Arvin, Guhl and Jordan also was one hell of a run at well!

[TysonNisley]

56 minutes ago, FCFIGHTER170 said:

You picking McClure at 220 aged well! Pinned Viel then came back to beat Dark Horse himself Jack Taylor in the finals! Jack beating Arvin, Guhl and Jordan also was one hell of a run at well!

I think that my dark horse picks were pretty solid, if I do say so myself. Jackson just upset the #1 in the state, DeMarco won his semistate, Solomey beat #6 Jack Coyle in the ticket round, Roberts didn't make it to the show but had a 6-3 match with Boarman in the ticket round (Boarman beat both Ruhlman and Alstott after that)

Buchanan won his semistate, Khaoucha won his semistate I believe, McClure calmed down the red hot Taylor in the finals, and Donati punched his ticket after being unranked (yeah, yeah, I know the #11 guy got DQ'ed first round but nevertheless it looks better on my ability to make predictions)

[GenHeavyHandz]

9 hours ago, TysonNisley said:

I think that my dark horse picks were pretty solid, if I do say so myself. Jackson just upset the #1 in the state, DeMarco won his semistate, Solomey beat #6 Jack Coyle in the ticket round, Roberts didn't make it to the show but had a 6-3 match with Boarman in the ticket round (Boarman beat both Ruhlman and Alstott after that)

Buchanan won his semistate, Khaoucha won his semistate I believe, McClure calmed down the red hot Taylor in the finals, and Donati punched his ticket after being unranked (yeah, yeah, I know the #11 guy got DQ'ed first round but nevertheless it looks better on my ability to make predictions)

Everything is “Nisley” done and thought out based on what you’ve seen:  Don’t sleep on Kreager at 170.

[Wrestlingfan937]

I have a feeling that nc semi state champ at 285 will be under the lights.