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TrackWrestling Quant Simulated NCAA finals...interesting results


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TrackWrestling is running a simulated NCAA finals based on strength values of each wrestler from all past individual match score results. It then essentially rolls dice with predetermined probabilities of all possible results and spits out a randomly selected result based on those probabilities. Some of the match scores in their simulation are inflated but the number of upsets that get randomly chosen seems about right, so it's fun looking through the brackets they've posted in the same way as all Track tournaments. Some interesting results for Indiana guys so far heading into the final day:

 

For IU: 

Liam Cronin makes a surprise run to the blood round before falling and finishing 3-2. 

Rooks goes 2-2 in his fictional first foray into the tournament.

 

For Purdue:

Currently in 10th place heading into the final day

Christian Brunner on a great run into the championship final against Kollin Moore of Ohio St.

Devin Schroeder is the unfortunate unlucky blood round loser to #2 Pat Glory, who got shocked in the second round.

Kendall Coleman is an All-American and will wrestle for 7th.

Dylan Lydy is an All-American and is in the consolation semi's.

Thomas Penola caps off a great year with two upset wins before falling.

Lyon, Parriott, Filius go a combined 2-6.

 

Others:

Drew Hildebrandt in the consolation semi's and an AA.

Chad Red in the consolation semi's and an AA--again.

Brayton Lee loses in the blood round.

Jake Tucker 2-2.

Drew Hughes 0-2.

Cael McCormick falls 11-10 in the blood round.

Ben Harvey 1-2.

Lucas Davison 2-2.

 

and...

 

Nick Lee and Mason Parris hold serve and reach the championship finals against their nemeses Pletcher and Steveson.

 

The wrestle back semi's, placement matches, and finals will be simulated today.

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Posted (edited)

In imaginary land, Nick Lee falls by one point again, 6-5, to Pletcher; and Mason Parris emphatically avenges his only loss by winning a national championship, 5-0, over Gable Steveson. 

 

Purdue ends up 10th as a team.

Edited by maligned
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IAWRESTLE.com also has a simulation going. Nick Lee beats Pletcher 7-6. Mason Paris loses 8-7 to Stevenson. I can't figure out how to see the wrestle backs so I am not sure what everyone else placed. 

 

 

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