maligned Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 TrackWrestling is running a simulated NCAA finals based on strength values of each wrestler from all past individual match score results. It then essentially rolls dice with predetermined probabilities of all possible results and spits out a randomly selected result based on those probabilities. Some of the match scores in their simulation are inflated but the number of upsets that get randomly chosen seems about right, so it's fun looking through the brackets they've posted in the same way as all Track tournaments. Some interesting results for Indiana guys so far heading into the final day: For IU: Liam Cronin makes a surprise run to the blood round before falling and finishing 3-2. Rooks goes 2-2 in his fictional first foray into the tournament. For Purdue: Currently in 10th place heading into the final day Christian Brunner on a great run into the championship final against Kollin Moore of Ohio St. Devin Schroeder is the unfortunate unlucky blood round loser to #2 Pat Glory, who got shocked in the second round. Kendall Coleman is an All-American and will wrestle for 7th. Dylan Lydy is an All-American and is in the consolation semi's. Thomas Penola caps off a great year with two upset wins before falling. Lyon, Parriott, Filius go a combined 2-6. Others: Drew Hildebrandt in the consolation semi's and an AA. Chad Red in the consolation semi's and an AA--again. Brayton Lee loses in the blood round. Jake Tucker 2-2. Drew Hughes 0-2. Cael McCormick falls 11-10 in the blood round. Ben Harvey 1-2. Lucas Davison 2-2. and... Nick Lee and Mason Parris hold serve and reach the championship finals against their nemeses Pletcher and Steveson. The wrestle back semi's, placement matches, and finals will be simulated today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maligned Posted March 21, 2020 Author Share Posted March 21, 2020 Red 3rd Lydy 4th Hildebrandt 6th Coleman 7th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maligned Posted March 22, 2020 Author Share Posted March 22, 2020 (edited) In imaginary land, Nick Lee falls by one point again, 6-5, to Pletcher; and Mason Parris emphatically avenges his only loss by winning a national championship, 5-0, over Gable Steveson. Purdue ends up 10th as a team. Edited March 22, 2020 by maligned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattM Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 (edited) As much as I’d like to believe it could happen I don’t believe Steveson goes a whole match vs. Parris without scoring a single point. Only possibility of this would be that he’s put straight on his back and pinned in the opening period, but that’s not how the “fantasy match” went. Edited March 22, 2020 by MattM Disco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 Agreed, Fantasy is the key word here. but what else is there to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maligned Posted March 22, 2020 Author Share Posted March 22, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, MattM said: As much as I’d like to believe it could happen I don’t believe Steveson goes a whole match vs. Parris without scoring a single point. Only possibility of this would be that he’s put straight on his back and pinned in the opening period, but that’s not how the “fantasy match” went. The truth is, the Quant simulation seemed to spit out very realistic results in terms of percentage and likelihood of upsets--but their final score outputs were not calibrated very well. The WrestleStat simulation had 95% favorites winning and virtually all matches between close seeds as 1-point matches. Not realistic in either respect. Edited March 22, 2020 by maligned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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