base Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 **ASSUMING** that they score the tournament the same as last year (no advancement or bonus points for Friday night) the team race should be very close although I have it as a 3-horse race between Mater Dei, Cathedral and Crown Point. I think between those 3 it's anyone's tourney - bonus points, key matchups and some unexpected scorers could tilt the victory one way or another. Here is how the scoring works (again, using last year's formula). Wrestlers score for Advancement points and Placement points. Those are predetermined: Additionally, wrestlers can add team points versus Activity scoring: Obviously it makes a HUGE difference whether the wrestler can make it to the finals versus the 3rd/4th place match, and so on. Here are my predictions: 1. Evansville Mater Dei - 9 wrestlers with several chances to make the finals. Some huge landmines though that could really effect the outcome! 2. Indianapolis Cathedral - Some good early matchups means that they have a good chance to have a large number of wrestlers making it deep 3. Crown Point - With Mendez leading the way, the Bulldogs have some hammers that could make a deep run. They have some huge matchups with Mater Dei Evansville Mater Dei Nine wrestlers starting out Friday night for EMD. Close matchups for Egli, Baumann, Sollars and Parkinson - if they get all 9 through, look out! 113 Cole Ross likely to face Logan Frazier in his 2nd match. If we wins that, a tough one against the Schoeff/Anthony winner. I have Ross making the finals 120 Alec Freeman has a brutal route - Head to Head with Crown Point's Riley Bettich in the 2nd round, then has to beat Cathedral's Seltzer if he wants to reach the finals 126 Ashton Hayhurst - Has undefeated Dylan Stroud in the opening round. Can he get by him? If so, then battle-tested David Pierson in the 2nd round and Rioux in the 3rd. That's a lot to ask of a sophomore 132 Kane Egli - He's got a tough road, but guys like this senior can decide the team title. He faces Slivka from Roncalli in the 1st match. If he gets to Saturday he will likely have Ian Heath before hitting Mendez. Making the final 4 would be big 138 Blake Boarman is the big dog in a difficult half-bracket. For his 3rd match will probably face either Logan Wagner or Floyd Central's Conway 145 Brody Baumann has winnable first 2 matches but they won't be easy. Jajuan Anderson from Warren Central will push the pace - and then AJ Poindexter will stand in the way of a top 4 finish 160 Eli Dickens - Based on this year's results he is the favorite - but the final 4 at 160 will be extremely entertaining and could go any combination. He would have a match versus Cathedral's Eliot Rodgers in his 3rd match to reach the finals. That's a HUGE swing match for team points 170 Gabe Sollars - Someone like Sollars could make a huge difference. His first match is against Chesterton junior Gavin Layman. Then he would face a likely head-to-head matchup against Cathedral's Tyler Wagner 182 Macartney Parkinson - has the toughest quarter bracket in the tournament. Opens up against #1 Joseph Walker then has Mason Winner in the 2nd round. It's feast or famine for Mater Dei here Indianapolis Cathedral Cathedral enters 8 wrestlers to the field Friday night. All of them have a shot to make it to Saturday, with some high scoring potential 106 Evan Dickey comes in as a 4th place finisher, but he does avoid the loaded other half-bracket. His Friday night match is against Isaac Ruble - if he can get by that, then his points will really be a help 120 Zeke Seltzer is the prohibitive favorite but it isn't a cake walk. He may see Bettich or Freeman in the 3rd round. Still, it's likely big points here 138 Logan Bailey is a big swing in points, I think. He has potential to reach the finals, but he has a match against Drake Campbell in the 2nd round that could be a scare 160 Elliot Rodgers has a good path until that final 4 where he faces Dickens who has beat him this season. Will experience win over latest results? 170 Tyler Wagner may face EMD's Gabe Sollars in his 2nd match - that's a big showdown. Wagner could make a run to the finals 182 Johnny Parker - Unfortunately for Parker, he drew in to the death quarter bracket of Mason Winner then Parkinson/Walker. Tough to see him winning the first round, let alone getting to the final 4 195 Jacob Huffman - he is an interesting one. His first match is against Friedt, who is ranked higher but also lost to his Cathedral teammate Parker this season. I don't have Huffman making it to Saturday, but he could surprise and get into that 5th-8th range. In that case, bonus points would be key 285 Holden Parsons - the senior Yorktown transfer has wrestled well this season and the 285 weight class is always unpredictable. I have him winning 2 matches before facing Dancy from Portage. Parsons is very experienced and opposite the Key/Irick combo. If he can slow down the match and wrestle strategically against Dancy, he could be under the lights with some HUGE points Crown Point Crown Point brings 8 wrestlers to the first round. I think their first round looks great, which means they will get 6 or possibly 7 into the scoring rounds. They are very young, but still could surprise some of the older wrestlers and make deep runs to make this a close race 106 Sammy Goin has only lost once all season. I would love his chances - but he got a tough, tough draw. He has Chundi in the 2nd round. That match may be a tossup. Can Goin get past Chundi and make it into the final 4 and possibly win it all? Since there are so many young wrestlers here and the action is lightning-quick, 106 can be very unpredictable and the matches can turn quickly 113 Logan Frazier is another freshman. He has a stiff task, facing the experienced Cole Ross from EMD in the 2nd round. I would give the edge to Ross, but I am not counting out these young bulldogs either 120 Riley Bettich has a ton of talent and the chance to take out a couple of head to head competitors. He should have Alec Freeman in the 2nd round, then Zeke Seltzer in the 3rd 126 Stephen Roberson - we all know the 126 weight class is bonkers this year. There are no easy paths to the finals and Roberson will have to face Kysen Montgomery in the 2nd round, then the winner of Dalton/Lowery showdown in the 3rd round if he wants to see the finals. Possiblity of huge points, or very few points here. 132 Jesse Mendez - He'll have the target on his back this year. Hard to see anyone stopping him from winning it all and getting the 20 team points. So the question may be how many bonus points can he rack up to help out the team? 138 Nick Tattini - Don't have Tattini getting to Saturday. If he can manage to get there, that's a huge boost for CP 145 Orlando Cruz - he also faces a murderer's row of wrestlers but he is capable of getting some points. He has Feichter in the 1st round, then likely Avon's Jaden Reynolds in the 2nd round before seeing undefeated Alec Viduya in the semis. Any points here would be a big win 160 Noah Hollendonner is the #1 seed. He should win his first, but then will have to try to break up the favored final 4 at this weight. He will see the winner of Noehre/Asbury. Look for Noah to be shooting for 5th-8th range and getting bonus points where he can Honorable Mentions Brownsburg - Some great wrestlers with some brutal matchups. Logan Miller at 106 should reach the semis. Kysen Montgomery will have Roberson in 2nd round. DRake Campbell has only lost once this season - can he knock off Logan Bailey in the 2nd round? Peyton Asbury got a Friday night death draw versus Noehre, but he will not make it an easy out. 285 Dorian Keys is the returning champion - can he repeat against Irick in a likely rematch with Irick in the semifinals and bring home another title? Chesterton - Look for Ellis and Bates to score big points here. Torres is great but has Rioux in the 2nd round. Kaiser would have to beat Boarman in the 2nd round. Tough roads to reach those big-point finals Perry Meridian - Only 3 wrestlers, but all of them have a legit shot to get to the finals. Cottey (113), Koontz (132) and Warren (182) can rack up mega points, but they are just hurt by lack of sheer numbers Roncalli - Similar to Perry. The Lowery brothers only have 2 losses between them on the season. Both could make a nice run to the finals. Viduya is on fire and he could be the 3rd Roncalli wrestler to reach the finals. Slivka is talented but has a really tough first round matchup with Kane Egli. If the other 3 can get to the finals and Slivka reaches the final 4 then we may see Roncalli creeping up the board Warren Central - 5 wrestlers here. Brice Coleman is undefeated and favored - he should score lots of points. David Pierson at 126 would be challenged at every step, but he has the potential and experience to make a deep run. Jajuan Anderson, Damon McClain and Dennis Hubbard could score some points, but not enough As always these are only my opinions. Good luck to all teams and wrestlers this weekend - hope that everyone wrestles their best match(es) ever and stays injury-free, in victory or defeat. slice60, backtothemat, UncleJimmy and 13 others 13 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sig40 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Great write up. I am most excited to see how this team race turns out. Saturday morning will decide the champ. indianmorg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
base Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 On another thread, Trackgopher confirmed that there will be scoring for the first round! Not 100% sure it will include both advancement points AND activity points - but this will be a MAJOR wrinkle in the overall team scores. For those schools with difficult 2nd round matches where you may lose a wrestler - now they have an opportunity to score points in the Friday night matchup. I see this being a big boost for Crown Point - they have 5 #1 wrestlers coming in. Although their 2nd round is very tough - their first round could net them a LOT of points especially if the activity points are counted. Each of the top teams now has 8 or 9 opportunities for another 4 points added to their team score. This also will distance the teams bringing a lot of wrestlers from those with only a few good ones like Perry Meridian D Summar and slice60 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slice60 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 hours ago, base said: On another thread, Trackgopher confirmed that there will be scoring for the first round! Not 100% sure it will include both advancement points AND activity points - but this will be a MAJOR wrinkle in the overall team scores. For those schools with difficult 2nd round matches where you may lose a wrestler - now they have an opportunity to score points in the Friday night matchup. I see this being a big boost for Crown Point - they have 5 #1 wrestlers coming in. Although their 2nd round is very tough - their first round could net them a LOT of points especially if the activity points are counted. Each of the top teams now has 8 or 9 opportunities for another 4 points added to their team score. This also will distance the teams bringing a lot of wrestlers from those with only a few good ones like Perry Meridian I hope you are right because that's the way IT SHOULD BE. The State Finals tournament starts Friday night & ALL Team Scoring should start then too. base and D Summar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWINfan Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 How do Advancement points work? A 5th Place wrestler would win 3 matches. On a different note, it seems a 5th Place finish is about as good as a 4th Place finish if they score bonus in the extra win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
base Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 (edited) 43 minutes ago, SWINfan said: How do Advancement points work? A 5th Place wrestler would win 3 matches. On a different note, it seems a 5th Place finish is about as good as a 4th Place finish if they score bonus in the extra win. Typically the wrestler receives 2 advancement points for each victory on the championship bracket (not including their final match), 1 point for a victory on the consolation bracket. The scoring for advancement when they started in the 2nd round is below. If they use the Friday night matches then Advancement scores listed below would be the same but +2 (for the Friday night win). So 5th place = Win (+2), Loss, Win (+1), Win for 5th Edited February 21, 2020 by base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navy80 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Crown point wins it. Mater Dei second. great analysis and information!! D Summar and TeamGarcia 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeamGarcia Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, navy80 said: Crown point wins it. Mater Dei second. great analysis and information!! Going with Navy80, CP wins it. D Summar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midstate0413 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 no chance CP 2nd place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
base Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 Some huge potential swing matches tonight for the front runners: 106 #9 Evan Dickey (Cath) vs #4 Isaac Ruble 126 #9 Ashton Hayhurst (EMD) vs #18 undefeated Dylan Stroud 145 #5 Orlando Cruz (Crown Point) vs #4 William Fiechter 145 #10 Brody Baumann (EMD) vs #7 Jajuan Anderson 170 #6 Gabe Sollars (EMD) vs #13 Gavin Layman 182 #3 Mccartney Parkinson (EMD) vs #1 Joseph Walker 182 #6 Johnny Parker (Cath) vs #2 Mason Winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeamGarcia Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 (If) CP gets 106-126 in the Semis or Place they are going to be hard to beat. Then you got Jesse which in my eyes is a Lock with almost max points for his team himself . Cruz placing Top 8, Noah placing Top 8. Other than Tattini, all got some favorable draws . #facts Just what @navy80 & I see #amiright navy80 and D Summar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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