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bulldog145

Dominating Sectionals

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After compiling some data over the last 11yrs,  the Frankfort/Zionsville Sectional has completely dominated the Crawfordsville Sectional.  With the constant talk of growing our sport in our state, wouldn't it make sense to try and balance out the competition among Sectionals?  I know that talent and depth will fluctuate from time to time and the results can tip back and forth but a continuous domination should call for a change.  (More than just moving Zionsville over to Crawfordsville, as that didn't change results much)  

Are there any other cases throughout the state similar to this?  Any way, here is the data...

 

 

    TOTAL WRESTLERS ADVANCING TO SEMI-STATE FROM 2010-2020
FRANKFORT/ZIONSVILLE SECTIONAL 434 70.50%
CRAWFORDSVILLE SECTIONAL 182 29.50%

 

If you would like to see the year by year data I can post that as well.  

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That is crazy . Would be nice to balance those numbers out somehow.

 

Zionsville switching did help a little though. Since the switch in 2018 they have accounted for 23 of the 182 . Not a huge number but if that were to span the entire 11 years you went back, that would have helped even more .

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Since Zionsville moved to Crawfordsville the balance for 1st place is a more respectable 18-24. That’s a 43% win rate for 1st place for the Crawfordsville sectional.

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2018 2019 2020
Total Participants Advancing to Semi-State Total Participants Advancing to Semi-State Total Participants Advancing to Semi-State
Frankfort/Zionsville Sectional Crawfordsville Sectional Frankfort/Zionsville Sectional Crawfordsville Sectional Frankfort/Zionsville Sectional Crawfordsville Sectional
2 2 4 0 3 1
2 2 4 0 4 0
2 2 3 1 4 0
3 1 4 0 3 1
2 2 1 3 3 1
3 1 2 2 3 1
3 1 2 2 3 1
2 2 3 1 3 1
2 2 3 1 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2
2 2 3 1 2 2
2 2 3 1 3 1
3 1 3 1 3 1
2 2 4 0 3 1
32 24 41 15 41 15
57.10%   73.20%   73.20%  

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LOL. Well there goes that theory. Actually the last 2 years have been more lopsided than your 70.5% average over 10 years. I figured the 2019 - 20 percentages would be a little more balanced like 2018 .


I was texting with my son's coach about this last weekend. Frankfort / Zionsville is/was such a tough sectional .

 

Good stuff. I love seeing stats like this.Thank you for putting in the time to put this together.

 

I would be interested to see if there are any other regionals this lopsided .

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3 minutes ago, DaHuCo said:

LOL. Well there goes that theory. Actually the last 2 years have been more lopsided than your 70.5% average over 10 years. I figured the 2019 - 20 percentages would be a little more balanced like 2018 .


I was texting with my son's coach about this last weekend. Frankfort / Zionsville is/was such a tough sectional .

 

Good stuff. I love seeing stats like this.Thank you for putting in the time to put this together.

 

I would be interested to see if there are any other regionals this lopsided .

The Pendleton Heights regional was pretty close to that this year, although maybe not quite as much so.  I think it was 39-17 (69.6% vs 30.4%).  But part of that was Cathedral getting 14 through themselves.  And multiple teams had down years in the Elwood sectional.  I don’t think it was quite that lopsided the last couple years at least.

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Does it really matter?  If only four advance to SS from Regional and there is a very lopsided Sectional, you are still

giving the top four from the stronger sectional opportunity to finish top four at Regional.  Or is the argument that the fifth place finishers at the stronger sectional could make Regional if in the other sectional?  That’s a weaker argument IMHO to shaking up sectionals. 

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Couple year's ago I brought up the idea of combining the Sectional and Regional Tourney into one tournament.

 

I don't have the numbers in front of me, so don't nail me to exact details.....

 

We have one of the largest regionals (most number of teams) and I'm thinking it's like 24ish teams.

 

You'd have to have a round of 32 in theory....most weights have more than 8 ffts if you combine sectionals.  That would be a quick round.

 

Seed top 12

 

Friday night: Rat tail matches (I believe the number was around 10 matches total).  Then have the round of 16 right after.  If you lose any of those, you're done.  

 

Saturday morning run an 8 man tourney with wrestlebacks.

 

When I looked at it I thought it would help with the ref shortage and make the state more money with less work.  It would also shorten the season a week, which might get us in the conversation of semi state wrestle backs down the road.

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It probably doesn't matter , but is an interesting conversation too me . I don't see how balancing out some sectionals a little is a bad thing. It would give some kids a better chance to move on in the tournament and maybe light a fire in them. Which to me is a good thing for the kids and the sport over all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I have also done Oak Hill/Peru and Lafayette Jeff/Logansport.  They are much more balanced over the 10yr spread.  

The argument is that there is a success factor that helps build programs.  If a program can't have any success at the Sectional/Regional level that program will slowly die.  

 

If there is a balance at the Sectional level, more programs are able to have a chance at having success.  Success breeds success.  

I'm talking programs as a whole.  If you look at Lafayette Jeff Sectional:  Attica went from almost no program, sending nearly no one to North Montgomery Regional to a Class A State team once they were moved to Lafayette Jeff Sectional which is more balanced.  You could also look at the Western/Oak Hill programs for the same comparisons.  Those teams (Western/Oak Hill) continue to rebuild and have success.  Do you think if they had to go through a Sectional like Frankfort they would still have strong programs?  

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29 minutes ago, Ed Pendoski said:

Couple year's ago I brought up the idea of combining the Sectional and Regional Tourney into one tournament.

 

I don't have the numbers in front of me, so don't nail me to exact details.....

 

We have one of the largest regionals (most number of teams) and I'm thinking it's like 24ish teams.

 

You'd have to have a round of 32 in theory....most weights have more than 8 ffts if you combine sectionals.  That would be a quick round.

 

Seed top 12

 

Friday night: Rat tail matches (I believe the number was around 10 matches total).  Then have the round of 16 right after.  If you lose any of those, you're done.  

 

Saturday morning run an 8 man tourney with wrestlebacks.

 

When I looked at it I thought it would help with the ref shortage and make the state more money with less work.  It would also shorten the season a week, which might get us in the conversation of semi state wrestle backs down the road.

Would Carmel still get credit for a sectional AND regional team title? haha

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1 hour ago, bulldog145 said:

I have also done Oak Hill/Peru and Lafayette Jeff/Logansport.  They are much more balanced over the 10yr spread.  

The argument is that there is a success factor that helps build programs.  If a program can't have any success at the Sectional/Regional level that program will slowly die.  

 

If there is a balance at the Sectional level, more programs are able to have a chance at having success.  Success breeds success.  

I'm talking programs as a whole.  If you look at Lafayette Jeff Sectional:  Attica went from almost no program, sending nearly no one to North Montgomery Regional to a Class A State team once they were moved to Lafayette Jeff Sectional which is more balanced.  You could also look at the Western/Oak Hill programs for the same comparisons.  Those teams (Western/Oak Hill) continue to rebuild and have success.  Do you think if they had to go through a Sectional like Frankfort they would still have strong programs?  

I don't know if the Attica example makes sense. Attica moved from Crawfordsville to Lafayette Jeff sectional in 2018.  Yes they did a little better once they got there.   But you say they had more success because the L Jeff is more balanced, but the L Jeff sectional is rated higher in the Genius team state qualifiers grid in 2019: Jeff=4 and Crawfordsville =3 so fair to say a stronger sectional.  In your theory, wouldn't that have had the opposite affect?   What do you mean by balanced?  Yes,  Attica did improve results  once they got into the L Jeff sectional,  but that's because there team got better before they got to the sectional  and were on an up peak cycle. Just my opinion,  but Attica's success was more due the strong group of kids developed around the coaches son.  It didn't have anything to do with the sectional they were in. They would have had similar and probably better results if they stayed at Crawfordsville. 

 

Not to be contrarian,  but take North Posey which is the hottest small school going right now. Didn't they win the 1A team.   Due to there geographical location,  they have the misfortune of being in the same sectional as Evansville Mater Dei.   To be statistically real,  they have very little chance of ever winning  that sectional.   But what ever they're doing,  and its not winning local sectionals, its really working as they're a bright spot.  

 

Just curious what was the breakout of percentages in the Logansport two sectionals over 10 years.

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Lafayette Jeff Sectional        340    55.20%
Twin Lakes Sectional        276    44.80%

 

 

I disagree.  Had Attica stayed in  the Crawfordsville sectional, the Northmont Regional was a dead end (with the exception of a very few outliers).  

Since the move to Lafayette Jeff (which is relatively balanced with the Twin Lakes Sectional) they have been able to send a hand full of kids to SS for the last few years.  One has to believe the success of those kids has fueled the development of a solid program.  

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There were 5 instances of Category 5 sectionals (according to Team State qualifying procedures) facing Category 3's. All ended between 63 and 73% in favor of the Cat 5.:

 

Bloomington South: 37-19

Frankfort: 41-15

Evansville North: 35-21

Goshen: 35-21

Jay County: 39-17

 

 

Edited by maligned

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I would like to see the opinions of the bottom half of the better sectionals of their programs continued success based off those results.  I would be willing to bet they are struggling.

Edited by bulldog145

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4 hours ago, Ed Pendoski said:

Couple year's ago I brought up the idea of combining the Sectional and Regional Tourney into one tournament.

 

I don't have the numbers in front of me, so don't nail me to exact details.....

 

We have one of the largest regionals (most number of teams) and I'm thinking it's like 24ish teams.

 

You'd have to have a round of 32 in theory....most weights have more than 8 ffts if you combine sectionals.  That would be a quick round.

 

Seed top 12

 

Friday night: Rat tail matches (I believe the number was around 10 matches total).  Then have the round of 16 right after.  If you lose any of those, you're done.  

 

Saturday morning run an 8 man tourney with wrestlebacks.

 

When I looked at it I thought it would help with the ref shortage and make the state more money with less work.  It would also shorten the season a week, which might get us in the conversation of semi state wrestle backs down the road.

This is well thought out and I think is simple, reasonable and efficient way to shorten a grueling 4 weeks.  I like it, thanks for sharing. 

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6 hours ago, Ed Pendoski said:

Couple year's ago I brought up the idea of combining the Sectional and Regional Tourney into one tournament.

 

I don't have the numbers in front of me, so don't nail me to exact details.....

 

We have one of the largest regionals (most number of teams) and I'm thinking it's like 24ish teams.

 

You'd have to have a round of 32 in theory....most weights have more than 8 ffts if you combine sectionals.  That would be a quick round.

 

Seed top 12

 

Friday night: Rat tail matches (I believe the number was around 10 matches total).  Then have the round of 16 right after.  If you lose any of those, you're done.  

 

Saturday morning run an 8 man tourney with wrestlebacks.

 

When I looked at it I thought it would help with the ref shortage and make the state more money with less work.  It would also shorten the season a week, which might get us in the conversation of semi state wrestle backs down the road.


This is a very good idea. This has to come from Doug Welch 

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11 hours ago, bulldog145 said:

After compiling some data over the last 11yrs,  the Frankfort/Zionsville Sectional has completely dominated the Crawfordsville Sectional.  With the constant talk of growing our sport in our state, wouldn't it make sense to try and balance out the competition among Sectionals?  I know that talent and depth will fluctuate from time to time and the results can tip back and forth but a continuous domination should call for a change.  (More than just moving Zionsville over to Crawfordsville, as that didn't change results much)  

Are there any other cases throughout the state similar to this?  Any way, here is the data...

 

 

 

    TOTAL WRESTLERS ADVANCING TO SEMI-STATE FROM 2010-2020
FRANKFORT/ZIONSVILLE SECTIONAL 434 70.50%
CRAWFORDSVILLE SECTIONAL 182 29.50%

 

If you would like to see the year by year data I can post that as well.  

 

Sectionals realign every so often

 

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4 hours ago, bulldog145 said:

Lafayette Jeff Sectional        340    55.20%
Twin Lakes Sectional        276    44.80%

 

 

I disagree.  Had Attica stayed in  the Crawfordsville sectional, the Northmont Regional was a dead end (with the exception of a very few outliers).  

Since the move to Lafayette Jeff (which is relatively balanced with the Twin Lakes Sectional) they have been able to send a hand full of kids to SS for the last few years.  One has to believe the success of those kids has fueled the development of a solid program.  

In your original post you were only talking about sectional success.   As you mentioned , they barely sent anybody to the Northmont Regional.  I agree they wouldn't have done as well as they did at Logansport.  But their team was significantly improved.  And as a result of coach Douglass working hard with a good core of kids with his son at the nucleus, they still would have sent 3 to 4 kids to New Castle semi state.  But they would have had more success at sectional in Crawfordsville.   Just because a few more kids made SemiState due to a weak regional is not why they had improved success.

Edited by Wrestling Scholar

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On ‎2‎/‎12‎/‎2020 at 5:12 PM, bulldog145 said:

Lafayette Jeff Sectional        340    55.20%
Twin Lakes Sectional        276    44.80%

 

 

I disagree.  Had Attica stayed in  the Crawfordsville sectional, the Northmont Regional was a dead end (with the exception of a very few outliers).  

Since the move to Lafayette Jeff (which is relatively balanced with the Twin Lakes Sectional) they have been able to send a hand full of kids to SS for the last few years.  One has to believe the success of those kids has fueled the development of a solid program.  

 

Bulldog, 

 

The percentages didn't look right to me in the L Jeff and Twin Lakes.  I had to over analyze being the scholar an actually counted for myself.   I had a little different results.  I came up with a 63% for Lafayette Jeff to 37% for Twin Lakes sectional qualifying to SS.  Its not as balanced as you said.  See results below by year.

 

            LJ                  TL
2010 35 21
2011 35 21
2012 25 31
2013 32 24
2014 37 19
2015 35 21
2016 37 19
2017 36 20
2018 38 18
2019 38 18
2020 37 19
  385 231

 

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I stand corrected.  I missed that Benton Central flipped over to Twin Lakes.  (Probably as an attempt to balance Sectionals)  The point of this was to point out that an overloaded sectional really snuffs a school trying to build a solid program when their is no post season success.  It is very frustrating for kids to see competition that they have beaten have post season success and the only reason for it is because of a more balanced Sectional.  

You can't tell me that having kids with a successful post season does not help build a program.  

This issue needs to be addressed or we will lose programs.

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23 minutes ago, bulldog145 said:

..... It is very frustrating for kids to see competition that they have beaten have post season success and the only reason for it is because of a more balanced Sectional.  You can't tell me that having kids with a successful post season does not help build a program.

 

Naturally successful postseason runs (at any level) will help a program, but unfortunately it is NOT possible to allow every athlete/program to have success.  You do the best you can but you must realize that it will not be equal for all; that is impossible to achieve.  I am sure wrestlers who lose because of a tough draw (Sectional, Regional or SS) know they could have easily advanced at a weaker venue but I guarantee it will help them in the long run.  Experiencing failure is vital to achieve quality learning and growing into adulthood.

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3 minutes ago, Indysportsfan said:

 

Naturally successful postseason runs (at any level) will help a program, but unfortunately it is NOT possible to allow every athlete/program to have success.  You do the best you can but you must realize that it will not be equal for all; that is impossible to achieve.  I am sure wrestlers who lose because of a tough draw (Sectional, Regional or SS) know they could have easily advanced at a weaker venue but I guarantee it will help them in the long run.  Experiencing failure is vital to achieve quality learning and growing into adulthood.

 

I totally understand that and agree with you, but wouldn't we want to maximize the chance of an opportunity?  

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