Y2CJ41 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Here are Genius Ratings for the full season of 2019-20 in Indiana. Remember that they use the same baseline mathematical system that is used by mainstream sports websites' "computer ratings" and by Las Vegas in determining point spreads. These ratings consider every dual and tournament in the IndianaMat database for the whole year, with the exception of some specific early-season results for teams that played football late. The difference in rating between two teams represents roughly the expected point spread if those two teams wrestled a dual. Multiply that same point spread by 3 to estimate the favored team's expected gap in a tournament. Rank Team Rating SoS SoS Rank 1 Evansville Mater Dei 114.90 59.04 15 2 Indianapolis Cathedral 109.74 59.53 12 3 Brownsburg 104.74 61.47 4 4 Warren Central 99.62 56.94 18 5 Carmel 98.96 64.37 3 6 Crown Point 96.83 53.17 29 7 Chesterton 93.77 60.56 8 8 Perry Meridian 89.21 61.13 5 9 Mishawaka 86.07 60.12 9 10 East Central 85.79 29.73 176 11 Northridge 82.95 40.58 104 12 Franklin Community 79.75 53.90 25 13 Harrison (WL) 78.15 44.73 76 14 Roncalli 77.93 49.60 51 15 Avon 77.23 70.59 1 16 Hobart 75.64 49.57 52 17 Carroll(Fort Wayne) 73.08 52.12 33 18 Mount Vernon (Fortville) 73.01 41.29 97 19 Westfield 72.42 53.50 27 20 North Posey 71.99 36.92 125 21 Merrillville 71.96 51.20 39 22 Garrett 71.48 42.63 91 23 Columbus East 71.38 58.28 16 24 Bellmont 70.64 52.12 32 25 Penn 69.63 56.48 19 26 Terre Haute South 69.54 32.70 160 27 Hamilton Southeastern 67.50 50.10 47 28 Zionsville 67.32 59.09 14 29 Columbia City 66.90 48.57 56 30 Portage 66.42 50.05 48 31 Oak Hill 66.40 25.92 215 32 Center Grove 65.20 56.22 22 33 Franklin Central 63.75 52.09 34 34 Norwell 61.98 43.72 83 35 Western 61.91 37.26 121 36 Greenfield-Central 61.23 52.07 35 37 Jimtown 61.15 41.20 98 38 Lake Central 60.18 56.25 21 39 Bloomington South 58.92 65.54 2 40 Wawasee 58.53 47.98 61 41 Floyd Central 58.30 50.72 41 42 Mount Vernon (Posey) 58.27 32.28 163 43 Greencastle 57.82 23.68 243 44 Kokomo 57.80 26.68 207 45 Centerville 56.63 12.03 305 46 Fishers 56.35 38.97 111 47 South Bend Riley 54.42 48.84 55 48 Edgewood 54.38 42.64 90 49 Castle 54.11 46.82 66 50 Plymouth 53.83 50.19 45 51 New Prairie 53.47 16.20 285 52 Southport 52.71 27.42 201 53 LaPorte 52.60 60.58 7 54 New Palestine 52.46 48.14 59 55 Goshen 52.09 56.10 23 56 Peru 51.90 40.71 102 57 Evansville Memorial 51.69 52.03 36 58 Homestead 51.44 34.51 140 59 Mooresville 51.30 53.58 26 60 Fort Wayne Snider 51.26 48.31 58 61 Bluffton 51.15 22.13 255 62 NorthWood 50.71 41.63 96 63 Delta 50.62 40.96 101 64 Wabash 49.87 37.27 120 65 Jeffersonville 49.65 59.69 11 66 Southmont 49.62 23.44 246 67 Plainfield 49.46 48.48 57 68 Martinsville 49.01 43.44 86 69 Lowell 49.01 49.98 49 70 Southridge 48.95 37.64 116 71 Ben Davis 48.79 43.73 82 72 North Central 48.49 51.87 38 73 Pendleton Heights 48.39 43.89 79 74 Monrovia 48.00 26.94 204 75 Warsaw 47.46 47.59 63 76 Tell City 47.39 37.79 115 77 Charlestown 47.19 40.19 106 78 McCutcheon 47.07 42.81 88 79 Valparaiso 47.04 50.75 40 80 Hamilton Heights 46.58 32.40 162 81 Lawrence North 46.37 45.86 72 82 Evansville Reitz 46.29 43.83 80 83 Leo 44.19 40.07 107 84 Frankton 43.99 21.36 260 85 Fairhaven 43.74 33.20 153 86 Maconaquah 43.48 21.50 259 87 Fort Wayne Bishop Dwenger 43.34 33.99 144 88 Gibson Southern 43.32 54.91 24 89 Prairie Heights 43.32 41.06 100 90 Jasper 42.81 34.50 141 91 Boonville 42.55 22.07 257 92 Decatur Central 42.11 41.14 99 93 Terre Haute North 41.69 26.48 211 94 West Vigo 41.64 34.19 143 95 Huntington North 41.61 47.65 62 96 Alexandria 41.47 12.50 304 97 Churubusco 41.17 30.41 172 98 Adams Central 40.32 34.76 137 99 Tippecanoe Valley 39.72 16.86 282 100 Manchester 39.66 16.27 284 101 Cowan 39.35 14.01 298 102 Elkhart Central 38.69 46.78 67 103 Marion 38.56 17.76 273 104 Noblesville 38.53 49.61 50 105 Lawrenceburg 38.42 23.85 240 106 Anderson 38.04 29.22 182 107 Evansville Central 37.97 51.87 37 108 Eastside 37.72 28.13 190 109 Jennings County 37.70 43.50 85 110 Jay County 37.58 35.42 132 111 Rensselaer Central 37.13 14.05 296 112 Whiteland 37.11 34.71 138 113 Fremont 36.85 19.99 268 114 Winamac 36.00 10.13 306 115 Frankfort 35.64 22.30 254 116 DeKalb 35.07 31.68 167 117 Madison 34.88 6.23 309 118 Heritage Hills 34.62 47.05 65 119 Greenwood 34.57 48.10 60 120 Attica 33.35 19.38 269 121 Lebanon 33.29 50.42 44 122 Lafayette Jefferson 33.18 25.27 227 123 New Haven 32.94 37.16 122 124 Eastern (Greentown) 32.83 29.71 177 125 Milan 32.03 14.03 297 126 Sullivan 31.69 45.95 71 127 South Dearborn 31.54 39.98 108 128 East Noble 31.49 43.77 81 129 Rushville 31.39 27.70 194 130 Kankakee Valley 31.32 29.05 185 131 Northview 31.31 30.93 171 132 Elkhart Memorial 31.00 60.83 6 133 South Adams 30.96 24.14 237 134 Evansville North 30.72 59.72 10 135 South Bend Adams 30.56 57.48 17 136 Highland 30.36 26.14 213 137 Daleville 29.85 18.09 271 138 Hammond Gavit 29.80 46.21 69 139 West Noble 29.78 32.72 159 140 Bloomington North 29.44 42.20 93 141 Indianapolis Lutheran 29.09 36.17 130 142 Beech Grove 28.16 33.82 148 143 Concord 27.65 45.15 74 144 Indianapolis Scecina 27.48 25.81 218 145 Eastern (Pekin) 25.88 2.82 311 146 Lawrence Central 25.06 37.40 119 147 North Montgomery 24.72 43.62 84 148 Fort Wayne Concordia 24.71 23.39 247 149 Monroe Central 24.57 13.66 300 150 Richmond 23.93 33.00 155 151 Western Boone 23.70 17.66 274 152 South Vermillion 23.64 9.75 307 153 River Forest 23.62 25.31 226 154 Corydon Central 23.31 17.15 276 155 Southern Wells 23.19 21.25 261 156 Rochester 22.37 34.27 142 157 Indian Creek 22.37 49.43 53 158 Pike 21.97 27.22 202 159 North Newton 21.93 12.75 303 160 New Castle 21.71 39.58 109 161 Knightstown 21.63 13.83 299 162 Cascade 21.10 22.78 252 163 Madison-Grant 20.91 28.39 189 164 Seymour 20.60 50.14 46 165 John Glenn 20.22 17.09 277 166 Purdue Polytechnic 19.55 13.16 302 167 Brown County 19.42 38.41 114 168 Angola 19.31 42.82 87 169 Seeger 19.29 13.44 301 170 Lafayette Central Catholic 19.20 29.55 180 171 Northwestern 18.91 26.61 208 172 Sheridan 18.42 24.01 239 173 Owen Valley 18.22 36.79 126 174 Franklin County 18.11 45.08 75 175 Union City 18.07 26.52 210 176 Shenandoah 18.02 14.48 293 177 Cloverdale 17.87 17.52 275 178 Crawfordsville 17.48 32.75 158 179 Vincennes Lincoln 17.44 52.49 30 180 Twin Lakes 17.28 33.30 152 181 Triton Central 17.21 32.80 157 182 Lake Station Edison 17.18 37.14 123 183 Griffith 17.08 28.13 191 184 Calumet 16.66 31.09 169 185 LaVille 16.55 6.01 310 186 Hebron 15.73 20.24 265 187 West Lafayette 15.67 25.84 217 188 Guerin Catholic 15.47 31.71 166 189 Columbus North 15.21 53.34 28 190 Benton Central 15.04 15.42 287 191 Woodlan 14.90 28.98 186 192 Cass 14.32 16.91 280 193 Faith Christian 14.02 14.38 295 194 Pike Central 13.98 44.65 77 195 Culver Academies 13.94 56.31 20 196 Munster 13.36 31.90 165 197 Cambridge City Lincoln 12.68 29.61 178 198 Hanover Central 12.62 27.67 195 199 Danville 12.57 42.68 89 200 Connersville 12.48 24.68 233 201 Northfield 12.21 36.52 127 202 East Chicago Central 12.03 25.80 219 203 Evansville Harrison 11.91 23.10 251 204 Mississinewa 11.79 38.56 113 205 Fort Wayne South Side 11.54 20.35 264 206 Princeton 11.09 42.05 94 207 Wheeler 11.02 25.71 222 208 Lapel 11.01 22.74 253 209 Clinton Prairie 10.78 16.65 283 210 Carroll (Flora) 10.59 21.24 262 211 Illiana Christian 10.45 41.78 95 212 Tecumseh 9.65 50.45 43 213 New Albany 9.24 46.19 70 214 Shelbyville 9.16 40.30 105 215 Winchester 8.87 24.05 238 216 Batesville 8.65 33.83 147 217 South Bend Washington 8.64 27.56 200 218 Yorktown 8.43 35.47 131 219 Forest Park 8.15 49.15 54 220 Tri-Central 7.58 23.74 241 221 Bedford North Lawrence 7.40 33.31 151 222 Northeastern 7.12 26.11 214 223 South Spencer 6.79 45.29 73 224 Logansport 6.38 31.41 168 225 Fort Wayne Wayne 6.38 24.90 232 226 Indianapolis Cardinal Ritter 6.14 29.35 181 227 Lakeland 6.11 26.84 205 228 Indianapolis Arsenal Tech 4.98 23.20 250 229 Rossville 4.81 25.24 228 230 North Putnam 4.21 36.21 129 231 Southwestern (Hanover) 3.38 38.63 112 232 Speedway 3.09 37.60 118 233 Delphi 2.56 18.55 270 234 Tipton 1.98 32.81 156 235 Indiana Deaf 1.85 26.72 206 236 Brebeuf Jesuit 1.39 44.44 78 237 Fairfield 1.13 42.59 92 238 Muncie Central 1.05 26.29 212 239 Bremen 1.03 6.49 308 240 West Central 1.00 25.64 223 241 Covington 0.94 24.27 235 242 Fort Wayne Northrop 0.80 24.25 236 243 North Knox 0.75 59.25 13 244 Hammond Morton -0.51 29.85 174 245 Heritage -0.69 27.86 193 246 Fountain Central -0.69 23.60 245 247 South Bend Clay -0.81 35.24 133 248 Andrean -1.84 33.33 150 249 Union County -1.98 33.15 154 250 North Miami -2.02 26.57 209 251 Crawford County -2.12 28.68 188 252 Scottsburg -2.38 33.95 145 253 Greensburg -2.67 32.17 164 254 Gary West Side -3.55 25.39 224 255 Hagerstown -3.73 24.55 234 256 North White -3.79 25.33 225 257 Frontier -4.69 14.92 289 258 Boone Grove -4.76 28.84 187 259 South Newton -4.88 23.32 248 260 Paoli -4.96 25.13 230 261 Central Noble -5.23 40.66 103 262 Indianapolis Howe Academy -5.99 20.62 263 263 Blackford -6.27 29.58 179 264 Elwood -6.43 26.98 203 265 Wes-Del -7.11 27.61 197 266 Hammond Clark -7.60 17.06 278 267 Indianapolis Bishop Chatard -7.73 29.16 183 268 Clinton Central -7.92 36.96 124 269 Culver Community -8.26 15.86 286 270 Wapahani -8.90 25.74 221 271 Eastern Hancock -9.26 27.63 196 272 Hammond -9.53 29.98 173 273 West Washington -9.91 14.42 294 274 Fort Wayne North Side -10.04 32.70 161 275 Triton -10.06 20.20 266 276 Indianapolis Crispus Attucks -10.20 22.13 256 277 Southwood -11.33 33.95 146 278 North Judson -11.57 21.53 258 279 Borden -13.12 25.88 216 280 Michigan City -13.22 52.46 31 281 Providence Cristo Rey -13.22 34.98 134 282 Mitchell -13.53 29.07 184 283 Tri -13.74 27.59 199 284 Fort Wayne Bishop Luers -13.75 16.91 281 285 Salem -14.30 23.70 242 286 Tri-West -14.70 46.38 68 287 Washington -14.76 50.58 42 288 Westview -14.79 30.99 170 289 Eastbrook -15.06 37.62 117 290 Switzerland County -16.45 34.88 135 291 North Harrison -17.22 20.12 267 292 Whitko -17.69 25.23 229 293 South Putnam -18.79 33.58 149 294 Caston -19.26 14.53 292 295 Providence -19.49 28.11 192 296 Knox -19.54 25.79 220 297 Pioneer -21.72 15.23 288 298 South Bend St. Joseph -22.21 34.51 139 299 Taylor -22.70 36.45 128 300 Parke Heritage -22.72 17.85 272 301 Randolph Southern -23.39 17.00 279 302 New Washington -23.89 29.78 175 303 Indianapolis George Washington -26.12 14.68 291 304 Indianapolis Emmerich Manual -27.15 14.76 290 305 Whiting -28.32 24.93 231 306 Evansville Bosse -30.12 47.39 64 307 North Vermillion -33.36 23.64 244 308 Silver Creek -33.78 34.88 136 309 Mishawaka Marian -35.40 27.60 198 310 Victory College Prep -35.86 39.25 110 311 Tri County -42.03 23.22 249 View full article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maligned Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Nice..beat me to it. These Genius POTENTIAL ratings for 2020. All results in the IndianaMat database are included in these ratings. A few reminders if you haven't seen these ratings before: 1. POTENTIAL is a strictly score-based rating, collected and calculated within the context of your schedule. It doesn't take into account wins and losses, but overall performance across every single contest you had. This type of score-based rating is more predictive of future performance than wins/losses based ratings. Just as you might be expected to beat a certain team by 20 points because you averaged 20 more points per dual against two common opponents, we can input all scores in the state together and interconnect all results to spit out how you'd be expected to do against anyone using the same principle. 2. The algorithm used for these ratings is one of the main types used to set Vegas lines for games and matches. The rating difference between your team and another team is roughly the expected point differential between your teams in a dual meet. 3. Tournament results are also included because they are remarkably predictive of dual meet results. We do, however, weight those results much less than dual meets. In general, the difference between you and another team in a tournament is about 3 times as much as the difference expected between your two teams in a dual. 4. Because we consider ALL results, not just isolated duals, it is very common and normal to have Team A be rated lower than Team B even though Team A won the head-to-head. Even in the NFL, for example, a two-touchdown favorite loses 15-20% of the time. This doesn't mean that favorite won't still be expected to be the better team in the future based on all their performances put together. 5. If someone seems overrated or underrated, it can sometimes be a case of schedule difficulty--especially at the top and bottom of the ratings--where a team faced virtually all teams of very high quality or much less quality than their own that didn't allow their position against the entire state to be fully evaluated. However, this "overrated" or "underrated" phenomenon is not nearly as extreme as you think. Someone that feels "overrated" to you in ratings like these is almost always better than you think but didn't get the chance to prove it against a team you recognize. 6. Strength of Schedule rating is essentially an average of the quality of every team you wrestled--including JV and out-of-state opponents. Don't be insulted if you feel your SoS rating is too low when you faced 10 ranked teams. It just means you also faced a healthy amount of weak teams that pulled your SoS down. Everyone knows you still ran the gauntlet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darrick Snyder Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Does this factor in out of state competition? Just curious. Discussing it with my staff. We saw 4 nationally ranked teams in Michigan earlier this year. Didn’t go so well for us. Lol Anthony Snyder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maligned Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 (edited) We include every single result in the database; but unless at least one of those opponents at a particular event faced at least one other Indiana team sometime during the year, those results won't move your rating or your SoS numbers at all. (That's a good example of where there's a limit to what the SoS numbers are telling us by the way. We have plenty of data for each team to get slotted well in terms of rating, but the SoS numbers only apply to what genuinely impacted your rating.) Edited January 31, 2020 by maligned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darrick Snyder Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 That’s what I thought. Thanks for the response! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestling Scholar Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 (edited) SOS bragging rights is a big deal. With four nationally ranked teams not getting baked in, they probably should get Brownsburg a complimentary astersisk that says Browsburg had the toughest schedule. Edited January 31, 2020 by Wrestling Scholar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 Elkhart Memorial's SOS is a little inflated as they only had 7 duals plus the Al Smith reported into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greco165 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Jesus Yorktown at 218... how the mighty have fallen littlevito 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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