Article: 2019-2020 Genius Ratings

[Y2CJ41]

Here are Genius Ratings for the full season of 2019-20 in Indiana. Remember that they use the same baseline mathematical system that is used by mainstream sports websites' "computer ratings" and by Las Vegas in determining point spreads. These ratings consider every dual and tournament in the IndianaMat database for the whole year, with the exception of some specific early-season results for teams that played football late. The difference in rating between two teams represents roughly the expected point spread if those two teams wrestled a dual. Multiply that same point spread by 3 to estimate the favored team's expected gap in a tournament. 

 

 

Rank	Team	Rating	SoS	SoS Rank
1	Evansville Mater Dei	114.90	59.04	15
2	Indianapolis Cathedral	109.74	59.53	12
3	Brownsburg	104.74	61.47	4
4	Warren Central	99.62	56.94	18
5	Carmel	98.96	64.37	3
6	Crown Point	96.83	53.17	29
7	Chesterton	93.77	60.56	8
8	Perry Meridian	89.21	61.13	5
9	Mishawaka	86.07	60.12	9
10	East Central	85.79	29.73	176
11	Northridge	82.95	40.58	104
12	Franklin Community	79.75	53.90	25
13	Harrison (WL)	78.15	44.73	76
14	Roncalli	77.93	49.60	51
15	Avon	77.23	70.59	1
16	Hobart	75.64	49.57	52
17	Carroll(Fort Wayne)	73.08	52.12	33
18	Mount Vernon (Fortville)	73.01	41.29	97
19	Westfield	72.42	53.50	27
20	North Posey	71.99	36.92	125
21	Merrillville	71.96	51.20	39
22	Garrett	71.48	42.63	91
23	Columbus East	71.38	58.28	16
24	Bellmont	70.64	52.12	32
25	Penn	69.63	56.48	19
26	Terre Haute South	69.54	32.70	160
27	Hamilton Southeastern	67.50	50.10	47
28	Zionsville	67.32	59.09	14
29	Columbia City	66.90	48.57	56
30	Portage	66.42	50.05	48
31	Oak Hill	66.40	25.92	215
32	Center Grove	65.20	56.22	22
33	Franklin Central	63.75	52.09	34
34	Norwell	61.98	43.72	83
35	Western	61.91	37.26	121
36	Greenfield-Central	61.23	52.07	35
37	Jimtown	61.15	41.20	98
38	Lake Central	60.18	56.25	21
39	Bloomington South	58.92	65.54	2
40	Wawasee	58.53	47.98	61
41	Floyd Central	58.30	50.72	41
42	Mount Vernon (Posey)	58.27	32.28	163
43	Greencastle	57.82	23.68	243
44	Kokomo	57.80	26.68	207
45	Centerville	56.63	12.03	305
46	Fishers	56.35	38.97	111
47	South Bend Riley	54.42	48.84	55
48	Edgewood	54.38	42.64	90
49	Castle	54.11	46.82	66
50	Plymouth	53.83	50.19	45
51	New Prairie	53.47	16.20	285
52	Southport	52.71	27.42	201
53	LaPorte	52.60	60.58	7
54	New Palestine	52.46	48.14	59
55	Goshen	52.09	56.10	23
56	Peru	51.90	40.71	102
57	Evansville Memorial	51.69	52.03	36
58	Homestead	51.44	34.51	140
59	Mooresville	51.30	53.58	26
60	Fort Wayne Snider	51.26	48.31	58
61	Bluffton	51.15	22.13	255
62	NorthWood	50.71	41.63	96
63	Delta	50.62	40.96	101
64	Wabash	49.87	37.27	120
65	Jeffersonville	49.65	59.69	11
66	Southmont	49.62	23.44	246
67	Plainfield	49.46	48.48	57
68	Martinsville	49.01	43.44	86
69	Lowell	49.01	49.98	49
70	Southridge	48.95	37.64	116
71	Ben Davis	48.79	43.73	82
72	North Central	48.49	51.87	38
73	Pendleton Heights	48.39	43.89	79
74	Monrovia	48.00	26.94	204
75	Warsaw	47.46	47.59	63
76	Tell City	47.39	37.79	115
77	Charlestown	47.19	40.19	106
78	McCutcheon	47.07	42.81	88
79	Valparaiso	47.04	50.75	40
80	Hamilton Heights	46.58	32.40	162
81	Lawrence North	46.37	45.86	72
82	Evansville Reitz	46.29	43.83	80
83	Leo	44.19	40.07	107
84	Frankton	43.99	21.36	260
85	Fairhaven	43.74	33.20	153
86	Maconaquah	43.48	21.50	259
87	Fort Wayne Bishop Dwenger	43.34	33.99	144
88	Gibson Southern	43.32	54.91	24
89	Prairie Heights	43.32	41.06	100
90	Jasper	42.81	34.50	141
91	Boonville	42.55	22.07	257
92	Decatur Central	42.11	41.14	99
93	Terre Haute North	41.69	26.48	211
94	West Vigo	41.64	34.19	143
95	Huntington North	41.61	47.65	62
96	Alexandria	41.47	12.50	304
97	Churubusco	41.17	30.41	172
98	Adams Central	40.32	34.76	137
99	Tippecanoe Valley	39.72	16.86	282
100	Manchester	39.66	16.27	284
101	Cowan	39.35	14.01	298
102	Elkhart Central	38.69	46.78	67
103	Marion	38.56	17.76	273
104	Noblesville	38.53	49.61	50
105	Lawrenceburg	38.42	23.85	240
106	Anderson	38.04	29.22	182
107	Evansville Central	37.97	51.87	37
108	Eastside	37.72	28.13	190
109	Jennings County	37.70	43.50	85
110	Jay County	37.58	35.42	132
111	Rensselaer Central	37.13	14.05	296
112	Whiteland	37.11	34.71	138
113	Fremont	36.85	19.99	268
114	Winamac	36.00	10.13	306
115	Frankfort	35.64	22.30	254
116	DeKalb	35.07	31.68	167
117	Madison	34.88	6.23	309
118	Heritage Hills	34.62	47.05	65
119	Greenwood	34.57	48.10	60
120	Attica	33.35	19.38	269
121	Lebanon	33.29	50.42	44
122	Lafayette Jefferson	33.18	25.27	227
123	New Haven	32.94	37.16	122
124	Eastern (Greentown)	32.83	29.71	177
125	Milan	32.03	14.03	297
126	Sullivan	31.69	45.95	71
127	South Dearborn	31.54	39.98	108
128	East Noble	31.49	43.77	81
129	Rushville	31.39	27.70	194
130	Kankakee Valley	31.32	29.05	185
131	Northview	31.31	30.93	171
132	Elkhart Memorial	31.00	60.83	6
133	South Adams	30.96	24.14	237
134	Evansville North	30.72	59.72	10
135	South Bend Adams	30.56	57.48	17
136	Highland	30.36	26.14	213
137	Daleville	29.85	18.09	271
138	Hammond Gavit	29.80	46.21	69
139	West Noble	29.78	32.72	159
140	Bloomington North	29.44	42.20	93
141	Indianapolis Lutheran	29.09	36.17	130
142	Beech Grove	28.16	33.82	148
143	Concord	27.65	45.15	74
144	Indianapolis Scecina	27.48	25.81	218
145	Eastern (Pekin)	25.88	2.82	311
146	Lawrence Central	25.06	37.40	119
147	North Montgomery	24.72	43.62	84
148	Fort Wayne Concordia	24.71	23.39	247
149	Monroe Central	24.57	13.66	300
150	Richmond	23.93	33.00	155
151	Western Boone	23.70	17.66	274
152	South Vermillion	23.64	9.75	307
153	River Forest	23.62	25.31	226
154	Corydon Central	23.31	17.15	276
155	Southern Wells	23.19	21.25	261
156	Rochester	22.37	34.27	142
157	Indian Creek	22.37	49.43	53
158	Pike	21.97	27.22	202
159	North Newton	21.93	12.75	303
160	New Castle	21.71	39.58	109
161	Knightstown	21.63	13.83	299
162	Cascade	21.10	22.78	252
163	Madison-Grant	20.91	28.39	189
164	Seymour	20.60	50.14	46
165	John Glenn	20.22	17.09	277
166	Purdue Polytechnic	19.55	13.16	302
167	Brown County	19.42	38.41	114
168	Angola	19.31	42.82	87
169	Seeger	19.29	13.44	301
170	Lafayette Central Catholic	19.20	29.55	180
171	Northwestern	18.91	26.61	208
172	Sheridan	18.42	24.01	239
173	Owen Valley	18.22	36.79	126
174	Franklin County	18.11	45.08	75
175	Union City	18.07	26.52	210
176	Shenandoah	18.02	14.48	293
177	Cloverdale	17.87	17.52	275
178	Crawfordsville	17.48	32.75	158
179	Vincennes Lincoln	17.44	52.49	30
180	Twin Lakes	17.28	33.30	152
181	Triton Central	17.21	32.80	157
182	Lake Station Edison	17.18	37.14	123
183	Griffith	17.08	28.13	191
184	Calumet	16.66	31.09	169
185	LaVille	16.55	6.01	310
186	Hebron	15.73	20.24	265
187	West Lafayette	15.67	25.84	217
188	Guerin Catholic	15.47	31.71	166
189	Columbus North	15.21	53.34	28
190	Benton Central	15.04	15.42	287
191	Woodlan	14.90	28.98	186
192	Cass	14.32	16.91	280
193	Faith Christian	14.02	14.38	295
194	Pike Central	13.98	44.65	77
195	Culver Academies	13.94	56.31	20
196	Munster	13.36	31.90	165
197	Cambridge City Lincoln	12.68	29.61	178
198	Hanover Central	12.62	27.67	195
199	Danville	12.57	42.68	89
200	Connersville	12.48	24.68	233
201	Northfield	12.21	36.52	127
202	East Chicago Central	12.03	25.80	219
203	Evansville Harrison	11.91	23.10	251
204	Mississinewa	11.79	38.56	113
205	Fort Wayne South Side	11.54	20.35	264
206	Princeton	11.09	42.05	94
207	Wheeler	11.02	25.71	222
208	Lapel	11.01	22.74	253
209	Clinton Prairie	10.78	16.65	283
210	Carroll (Flora)	10.59	21.24	262
211	Illiana Christian	10.45	41.78	95
212	Tecumseh	9.65	50.45	43
213	New Albany	9.24	46.19	70
214	Shelbyville	9.16	40.30	105
215	Winchester	8.87	24.05	238
216	Batesville	8.65	33.83	147
217	South Bend Washington	8.64	27.56	200
218	Yorktown	8.43	35.47	131
219	Forest Park	8.15	49.15	54
220	Tri-Central	7.58	23.74	241
221	Bedford North Lawrence	7.40	33.31	151
222	Northeastern	7.12	26.11	214
223	South Spencer	6.79	45.29	73
224	Logansport	6.38	31.41	168
225	Fort Wayne Wayne	6.38	24.90	232
226	Indianapolis Cardinal Ritter	6.14	29.35	181
227	Lakeland	6.11	26.84	205
228	Indianapolis Arsenal Tech	4.98	23.20	250
229	Rossville	4.81	25.24	228
230	North Putnam	4.21	36.21	129
231	Southwestern (Hanover)	3.38	38.63	112
232	Speedway	3.09	37.60	118
233	Delphi	2.56	18.55	270
234	Tipton	1.98	32.81	156
235	Indiana Deaf	1.85	26.72	206
236	Brebeuf Jesuit	1.39	44.44	78
237	Fairfield	1.13	42.59	92
238	Muncie Central	1.05	26.29	212
239	Bremen	1.03	6.49	308
240	West Central	1.00	25.64	223
241	Covington	0.94	24.27	235
242	Fort Wayne Northrop	0.80	24.25	236
243	North Knox	0.75	59.25	13
244	Hammond Morton	-0.51	29.85	174
245	Heritage	-0.69	27.86	193
246	Fountain Central	-0.69	23.60	245
247	South Bend Clay	-0.81	35.24	133
248	Andrean	-1.84	33.33	150
249	Union County	-1.98	33.15	154
250	North Miami	-2.02	26.57	209
251	Crawford County	-2.12	28.68	188
252	Scottsburg	-2.38	33.95	145
253	Greensburg	-2.67	32.17	164
254	Gary West Side	-3.55	25.39	224
255	Hagerstown	-3.73	24.55	234
256	North White	-3.79	25.33	225
257	Frontier	-4.69	14.92	289
258	Boone Grove	-4.76	28.84	187
259	South Newton	-4.88	23.32	248
260	Paoli	-4.96	25.13	230
261	Central Noble	-5.23	40.66	103
262	Indianapolis Howe Academy	-5.99	20.62	263
263	Blackford	-6.27	29.58	179
264	Elwood	-6.43	26.98	203
265	Wes-Del	-7.11	27.61	197
266	Hammond Clark	-7.60	17.06	278
267	Indianapolis Bishop Chatard	-7.73	29.16	183
268	Clinton Central	-7.92	36.96	124
269	Culver Community	-8.26	15.86	286
270	Wapahani	-8.90	25.74	221
271	Eastern Hancock	-9.26	27.63	196
272	Hammond	-9.53	29.98	173
273	West Washington	-9.91	14.42	294
274	Fort Wayne North Side	-10.04	32.70	161
275	Triton	-10.06	20.20	266
276	Indianapolis Crispus Attucks	-10.20	22.13	256
277	Southwood	-11.33	33.95	146
278	North Judson	-11.57	21.53	258
279	Borden	-13.12	25.88	216
280	Michigan City	-13.22	52.46	31
281	Providence Cristo Rey	-13.22	34.98	134
282	Mitchell	-13.53	29.07	184
283	Tri	-13.74	27.59	199
284	Fort Wayne Bishop Luers	-13.75	16.91	281
285	Salem	-14.30	23.70	242
286	Tri-West	-14.70	46.38	68
287	Washington	-14.76	50.58	42
288	Westview	-14.79	30.99	170
289	Eastbrook	-15.06	37.62	117
290	Switzerland County	-16.45	34.88	135
291	North Harrison	-17.22	20.12	267
292	Whitko	-17.69	25.23	229
293	South Putnam	-18.79	33.58	149
294	Caston	-19.26	14.53	292
295	Providence	-19.49	28.11	192
296	Knox	-19.54	25.79	220
297	Pioneer	-21.72	15.23	288
298	South Bend St. Joseph	-22.21	34.51	139
299	Taylor	-22.70	36.45	128
300	Parke Heritage	-22.72	17.85	272
301	Randolph Southern	-23.39	17.00	279
302	New Washington	-23.89	29.78	175
303	Indianapolis George Washington	-26.12	14.68	291
304	Indianapolis Emmerich Manual	-27.15	14.76	290
305	Whiting	-28.32	24.93	231
306	Evansville Bosse	-30.12	47.39	64
307	North Vermillion	-33.36	23.64	244
308	Silver Creek	-33.78	34.88	136
309	Mishawaka Marian	-35.40	27.60	198
310	Victory College Prep	-35.86	39.25	110
311	Tri County	-42.03	23.22	249

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[maligned]

Nice..beat me to it. 

 

These Genius POTENTIAL ratings for 2020. All results in the IndianaMat database are included in these ratings. A few reminders if you haven't seen these ratings before:

 

1. POTENTIAL is a strictly score-based rating, collected and calculated within the context of your schedule. It doesn't take into account wins and losses, but overall performance across every single contest you had. This type of score-based rating is more predictive of future performance than wins/losses based ratings. Just as you might be expected to beat a certain team by 20 points because you averaged 20 more points per dual against two common opponents, we can input all scores in the state together and interconnect all results to spit out how you'd be expected to do against anyone using the same principle.

 

2. The algorithm used for these ratings is one of the main types used to set Vegas lines for games and matches. The rating difference between your team and another team is roughly the expected point differential between your teams in a dual meet.

 

3. Tournament results are also included because they are remarkably predictive of dual meet results. We do, however, weight those results much less than dual meets. In general, the difference between you and another team in a tournament is about 3 times as much as the difference expected between your two teams in a dual.

 

4. Because we consider ALL results, not just isolated duals, it is very common and normal to have Team A be rated lower than Team B even though Team A won the head-to-head. Even in the NFL, for example, a two-touchdown favorite loses 15-20% of the time. This doesn't mean that favorite won't still be expected to be the better team in the future based on all their performances put together.

 

5. If someone seems overrated or underrated, it can sometimes be a case of schedule difficulty--especially at the top and bottom of the ratings--where a team faced virtually all teams of very high quality or much less quality than their own that didn't allow their position against the entire state to be fully evaluated. However, this "overrated" or "underrated" phenomenon is not nearly as extreme as you think. Someone that feels "overrated" to you in ratings like these is almost always better than you think but didn't get the chance to prove it against a team you recognize.

 

6. Strength of Schedule rating is essentially an average of the quality of every team you wrestled--including JV and out-of-state opponents. Don't be insulted if you feel your SoS rating is too low when you faced 10 ranked teams. It just means you also faced a healthy amount of weak teams that pulled your SoS down. Everyone knows you still ran the gauntlet.

[Darrick Snyder]

Does this factor in out of state competition?  Just curious.  Discussing it with my staff.  We saw 4 nationally ranked teams in Michigan earlier this year.  Didn’t go so well for us.  Lol

 

 

[maligned]

We include every single result in the database; but unless at least one of those opponents at a particular event faced at least one other Indiana team sometime during the year, those results won't move your rating or your SoS numbers at all. 

 

(That's a good example of where there's a limit to what the SoS numbers are telling us by the way. We have plenty of data for each team to get slotted well in terms of rating, but the SoS numbers only apply to what genuinely impacted your rating.)

Edited January 31, 2020 by maligned

[Darrick Snyder]

That’s what I thought.  Thanks for the response!

[Wrestling Scholar]

SOS bragging rights is a big deal.   With four nationally ranked teams not getting baked in,  they probably should get Brownsburg a complimentary astersisk that says Browsburg had the toughest schedule.

 

 

Edited January 31, 2020 by Wrestling Scholar

[Y2CJ41]

Elkhart Memorial's SOS is a little inflated as they only had 7 duals plus the Al Smith reported into the system. 

[greco165]

Jesus Yorktown at 218... how the mighty have fallen