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1prouddad

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We always talk about possible 4’s over 1’s on Friday night. With no brackets yet available for the state finals, here’s the 4’s coming out of EVV SS that could stir things up. 

106- Newman(MV) #4 SS  

113-Ross(EMD)#5 State #1SS

120- Conley(Av)#11 State #4SS

126-Meier(BS)#14 State #4 SS

132-Egli(EMD) #11 State #3SS

138-Kreiter(BB) #8 State #2 SS looked like he was concussed. Hope he’s healthy

145-Law(BB)#7 SS tough freshman

152-Ross(BS)#15 State #5SS

160-Sollars(EMD) #8 SS has quality wins over ranked opponents 

170-TJB(BB)#14 State #4SS

182-Carson(Dan) #9 State #3 SS young man wrestling with a lot of heart. 

195-Stine(Mart)#7 SS

220-Howell(THS)#7 SS

285-Rea(HH)#5 SS 

Granted it all comes down to the draws, but I think EVV can pull some 4 over 1’s come next Friday. Let’s see what the othe SS’s are bringing 

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Just now, 1prouddad said:

No, he lost 10-5 to Rooks in the ticket round

He probably means if Kreitzer is injured then Cash will come in as 4 seed. 

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Although I haven’t looked it up recently, Im not sure if there is an alternate option at the state level according to the rules wording for Cash to get in.   I believe it’s only the regional and semi-state level they provide for an alternate. 

Edited by MattM

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24 minutes ago, MattM said:

Although I haven’t looked it up recently, Im not sure if there is an alternate option at the state level according to the rules wording for Cash to get in.   I believe it’s only the regional and semi-state level they provide for an alternate. 

Unless it’s been revised then there can be an alternate. That alternate would then be the last person defeated by the eventual champ who also didn’t advance. In this case, it would be Cash. 

Page 9 section C(alternates)

http://www.ihsaa.org/archive/b-wrestling/2008-09/Wrestling Officials.pdf

Edited by 1prouddad

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2 hours ago, 1prouddad said:

We always talk about possible 4’s over 1’s on Friday night. With no brackets yet available for the state finals, here’s the 4’s coming out of EVV SS that could stir things up. 

106- Newman(MV) #4 SS  

113-Ross(EMD)#5 State #1SS

120- Conley(Av)#11 State #4SS

126-Meier(BS)#14 State #4 SS

132-Egli(EMD) #11 State #3SS

138-Kreiter(BB) #8 State #2 SS looked like he was concussed. Hope he’s healthy

145-Law(BB)#7 SS tough freshman

152-Ross(BS)#15 State #5SS

160-Sollars(EMD) #8 SS has quality wins over ranked opponents 

170-TJB(BB)#14 State #4SS

182-Carson(Dan) #9 State #3 SS young man wrestling with a lot of heart. 

195-Stine(Mart)#7 SS

220-Howell(THS)#7 SS

285-Rea(HH)#5 SS 

Granted it all comes down to the draws, but I think EVV can pull some 4 over 1’s come next Friday. Let’s see what the othe SS’s are bringing 

My thoughts on each's chances....

106 - Newman - Mostly cloudy.  Will need to draw Brooks from FW SS and 50/50 at best there.  Forecast changes to stormy if he draws Cottey or Cernus.

113 - Ross - Mostly cloudy - Always a chance but a stormy forecast if he draws Seltzer or Moran.  Teusch would be no easy task.  Ross is capable of beating any of them, but those feel like they should be Saturday matches.  Of course, drawing Ross would be a bad draw for any #1 as well.  Today did not make the forecast sunny.

120 - Conley - A capable wrestler with a tough road today.  Stormy forecast if the matchup is Bettich or Lowery.  I'll go partly cloudy (do they ever say partly sunny?) if he pulls FW SS and Beasley.

126 - Meier - Thunderstorms....   Mendez, Watts or Walendzak would all be tall tasks.

132 - Egli - The good thing is he can't draw Garcia.  I'll go with a mostly cloudy forecast, though Egli is capable of pulling an upset in any one match.  I don't think he would be favored in matches against Gimson, Brooks, or Viduya.

138 - Kreitzer/Cash - No idea what Kreitzer's status will be so I'll cover Cash also since he was mentioned and Drew had to MFF out today.  I see their chances as pretty equal.  I'll go partly cloudy.  I see a shot at a win against any of the three of Gimson, Alexander and Frieje but I don't see them as a clear favorite against any of them.  One of the better chances for an EV 4 over 1.

145 - Law - Sadly, if this weight draws against FW SS, this draw could be better than Champ Matt Lee's draw if it goes to NC SS instead.  I don't know enough about Logan Macklin, the FW winner so hard to say.  But I would guess his chances are better there than against Douglass or Mosconi.  A 4 over 1 might be a tough taks for the freshman. So we'll go with mostly cloudy with a good chance of thunderstorms.

152 - Ross - Like most 4 vs. 1's mostly cloudy is about right.  Could he beat Hicks from Carroll?  Possibly.  Ellis and Noehre seem like a small chance.

160 - Sollars - Stormy with a chance of an upset once again if the FW SS is drawn and he faces Ruble.  Sollars is tested, but not sure he has enough to seriously challenge Slivka or Washington.  Both beat Gabe at Team State.  

170 -  Jean-Baptiste - My guess is storms are likely, though the Brownsburg Bulldogs know how to step up to the moment.  Just not sure Fielden, Calhoun or Mahan will give him much opportunity.  But never say never.

182 - Carson - I gotta admit.  I'm perplexed with Trizton.  He has four losses, all injury defaults.  Today, two came in matches when he was down.  Not sure what the injury is, but if he wants to/is capable of Placing at State, he'll have to fight through.  There is no doubt he's talented.  If healthy, I'd give him at least a 50/50 shot (if not better) against all three #1s, Morgan, Bates & Winner.

195 - Stine - Chance of thunderstorms vary greatly with the draw here.  Heavy storms if he draws Allred.  Hurley and Agnew provide the chance for some sun, but not a great chance.  

220 - Howell  - Leffers, Fowler and Webster have a combined 4 losses. The heavier weights are not my area of knowledge, but I have to think storms are likely in all 3 scenarios here.

285 - Rea - 2 losses combined between the trio of Watts, Cartwright and Parsons.  At 285 storms can seem imminent and all of a sudden the sun can pop out with one move.  So there is a chance, though I wouldn't consider it a good one.

A note on the last four state draws for EV SS, which mean absolutely nothing...  
In the last 4 years....
The EV SS has not drawn the FW SS once at 106 or 113. 
120 - 132 EV has drawn FW twice. 
132 EV has not drawn NC SS.
At 138 the EV SS has drawn NC SS 4 straight years! 
145 & 152 have balance and have drawn no SS more than twice and the others once each. 
160 has drawn FW SS 3 out of 4 years and missed NC SS.
170 has drawn EC SS 3x and missed FW
182 - see 145 & 152
195 - NC SS and FW SS 2x each and no EC
220 & 285 have drawn NC SS 3x each and FW SS once.  Both missed EC all 4 years.

The last 3 years, the EV SS has matched up with NC SS at 6 weights and EC and FW 4 each.  2015 had 6 match ups for EC and 4 each for NC and FW.  All due respect to FW SS as their are some State Champ level #1s, but it would be nice to see the EV SS draw FW more than 4x this year.

Edited by SWINfan

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I agree SWIN. Looking over the other semi state results and I was hoping eville would get matched up with FW in 6-8 weights. 

Also ECC draws looked favorable. 

NC would provide tough Friday night matches that I don’t want to see on a Friday night. 

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8 hours ago, SWINfan said:

My thoughts on each's chances....

106 - Newman - Mostly cloudy.  Will need to draw Brooks from FW SS and 50/50 at best there.  Forecast changes to stormy if he draws Cottey or Cernus.

113 - Ross - Mostly cloudy - Always a chance but a stormy forecast if he draws Seltzer or Moran.  Teusch would be no easy task.  Ross is capable of beating any of them, but those feel like they should be Saturday matches.  Of course, drawing Ross would be a bad draw for any #1 as well.  Today did not make the forecast sunny.

120 - Conley - A capable wrestler with a tough road today.  Stormy forecast if the matchup is Bettich or Lowery.  I'll go partly cloudy (do they ever say partly sunny?) if he pulls FW SS and Beasley.

126 - Meier - Thunderstorms....   Mendez, Watts or Walendzak would all be tall tasks.

132 - Egli - The good thing is he can't draw Garcia.  I'll go with a mostly cloudy forecast, though Egli is capable of pulling an upset in any one match.  I don't think he would be favored in matches against Gimson, Brooks, or Viduya.

138 - Kreitzer/Cash - No idea what Kreitzer's status will be so I'll cover Cash also since he was mentioned and Drew had to MFF out today.  I see their chances as pretty equal.  I'll go partly cloudy.  I see a shot at a win against any of the three of Gimson, Alexander and Frieje but I don't see them as a clear favorite against any of them.  One of the better chances for an EV 4 over 1.

145 - Law - Sadly, if this weight draws against FW SS, this draw could be better than Champ Matt Lee's draw if it goes to NC SS instead.  I don't know enough about Logan Macklin, the FW winner so hard to say.  But I would guess his chances are better there than against Douglass or Mosconi.  A 4 over 1 might be a tough taks for the freshman. So we'll go with mostly cloudy with a good chance of thunderstorms.

152 - Ross - Like most 4 vs. 1's mostly cloudy is about right.  Could he beat Hicks from Carroll?  Possibly.  Ellis and Noehre seem like a small chance.

160 - Sollars - Stormy with a chance of an upset once again if the FW SS is drawn and he faces Ruble.  Sollars is tested, but not sure he has enough to seriously challenge Slivka or Washington.  Both beat Gabe at Team State.  

170 -  Jean-Baptiste - My guess is storms are likely, though the Brownsburg Bulldogs know how to step up to the moment.  Just not sure Fielden, Calhoun or Mahan will give him much opportunity.  But never say never.

182 - Carson - I gotta admit.  I'm perplexed with Trizton.  He has four losses, all injury defaults.  Today, two came in matches when he was down.  Not sure what the injury is, but if he wants to/is capable of Placing at State, he'll have to fight through.  There is no doubt he's talented.  If healthy, I'd give him at least a 50/50 shot (if not better) against all three #1s, Morgan, Bates & Winner.

195 - Stine - Chance of thunderstorms vary greatly with the draw here.  Heavy storms if he draws Allred.  Hurley and Agnew provide the chance for some sun, but not a great chance.  

220 - Howell  - Leffers, Fowler and Webster have a combined 4 losses. The heavier weights are not my area of knowledge, but I have to think storms are likely in all 3 scenarios here.

285 - Rea - 2 losses combined between the trio of Watts, Cartwright and Parsons.  At 285 storms can seem imminent and all of a sudden the sun can pop out with one move.  So there is a chance, though I wouldn't consider it a good one.

A note on the last four state draws for EV SS, which mean absolutely nothing...  
In the last 4 years....
The EV SS has not drawn the FW SS once at 106 or 113. 
120 - 132 EV has drawn FW twice. 
132 EV has not drawn NC SS.
At 138 the EV SS has drawn NC SS 4 straight years! 
145 & 152 have balance and have drawn no SS more than twice and the others once each. 
160 has drawn FW SS 3 out of 4 years and missed NC SS.
170 has drawn EC SS 3x and missed FW
182 - see 145 & 152
195 - NC SS and FW SS 2x each and no EC
220 & 285 have drawn NC SS 3x each and FW SS once.  Both missed EC all 4 years.

The last 3 years, the EV SS has matched up with NC SS at 6 weights and EC and FW 4 each.  2015 had 6 match ups for EC and 4 each for NC and FW.  All due respect to FW SS as their are some State Champ level #1s, but it would be nice to see the EV SS draw FW more than 4x this year.

Brooks is one of one of the most solid 106 out there. Haven't seen anyone in that division that moves like Jared. I wouldn't give anyone a 50/50 chance against this kid.

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2 hours ago, BClark said:

So every 4th place finisher at Evansville could win the Fort Wayne semistate?

No, but they have a better chance at several weights compared to the two other semi states. 

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After watching the way Conner Gimson has been wrestling the last couple of weeks I would say...”thunderstorm” for any #4 at 138 that gets him Friday night.

Edited by JHS95151

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Jake Simone @ 113 Moran would obviously be the worst of the 3 draws, but he’s Teusche’s only loss this year and has beaten Dalton in the past. His losses to Pierson and White were both much closer than the scores indicated 

After watching the action at New Castle this weekend, reading about the other SS’s and seeing some “locks” (even in my own eyes) losing in the 1st and ticket rounds I’m convinced anything can happen.

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A few others since I won’t be biased on my Portage guy.

  • Noah Hollendonner of Crown Point at 152
  • Dominic skees of LCC at 106
  • Anthony Atria of Merrillville at heavy
  • Elijah Hickman of Rensselaer Central at 132
  •    
 

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There are no absolutes, but some are pretty much locks.  We've all seen lightning strike and a heavily favored guy get pinned or hurt or sick and weakened.   Which is why I didn't try and use percentages.  The thing is... it's kinda fun to speculate.  And everyone at this point is good.  Question is, can those that are good find a way to step up and be great?

Edited by SWINfan

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1 hour ago, PhillyFanMD said:

Draw into FW semi state and you are in good shape.  Draw into the other two and your season ends friday night

Lmao. You all said that last year at 182. 1# and 3# came out of Fort Wayne. We will see Friday.

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3 hours ago, PhillyFanMD said:

Draw into FW semi state and you are in good shape.  Draw into the other two and your season ends friday night

Oof. I don’t know about everyone else, but from what I saw yesterday, it sure wouldn’t seem fun wrestling any of the Ft. Wayne champions first round.

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3 hours ago, Caleb Spires said:

Oof. I don’t know about everyone else, but from what I saw yesterday, it sure wouldn’t seem fun wrestling any of the Ft. Wayne champions first round.

How many schools from that semi state has won state in the past 20 years

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1, 3 and 7 from 182 last year. Give it up man my boy is a D1 wrestler  and you continue to talk garbage and he's from that Semi state. Wrestling does'nt only exist from Indy to the south. How many of these kids are Fargo tested? Jacob Gray 182 2017. 

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