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IHSAA team championship - potential pitfalls looking ahead to SEMISTATE

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Based on the IndianaMat final Power Poll (https://indianamat.com/index.php?/team_rankings.html/2019/power-poll-final-r114/) of the top scoring teams, here are some potential landmines with respect to the race for the team championship.  HUGE thanks to @Indysportsfan and his excellent data!

*NOTE: Northerners - before you complain... there are not many highly ranked teams (other than Portage and Crown Point) from either the East Chicago or Fort Wayne semistates.  Although there are a LOT of compelling matchups at regionals and semistate, I did not see many that would directly effect the team race at state.  Once they get to state - then there are plenty of hammers that could mess up team points!

106 Pounds

Huge landmine potential here

Evansville Semistate 

  • Alec Freeman - Mater Dei (#3 / #1SS) @ Evansville North
  • Logan Miller - Brownsburg (#8 / #2SS) @ Mooresville
  • Blaze Garcia - Avon (#12 / #3SS) @ Mooresville
  • Noah Lykins - Columbus East (NR / #8SS) @ Jeffersonville

Either Miller or Garcia will likely finish 2nd at Mooresville.  They could draw into Freeman or Lykins at semistate ticket-round. Freeman won a 8-6 decision over Miller this season, and Miller won by 3-1 over Garcia at sectionals. Could be a big point-scoring swing at Bankers LIfe for one of these teams depending on how things go

113 Pounds

Evansville Semistate

  • Cole Ross - Mater Dei (#5 / #1SS) @ Evansville North
  • Ben Dalton - Monrovia (#6 / #3SS) @ Mooresville
  • Hayden Watson - Center Grove (#8 / #4SS) @ Mooresville
  • Cameron Allen - Plainfield (#13 / #8SS) @ Mooresville
  • Kamariyon Nelson - Brownsburg (#17 / #6SS) @ Mooresville

The log-jam at Mooresville could wreak havoc at semistate. Watson defeated Dalton last weekend 7-2. Doesn't look like Ross has faced any of these yet - but one of the 4 will be in the same ticket round group as him

120 Pounds

Evansville Semistate

  • Blake Boarman - Mater Dei (#2 / #1SS) @ Evansville North
  • Brayden Littell - Center Grove (#1 / #2SS) @ Mooresville
  • Kysen Montgomery - Brownsburg (#6 / #3SS) @ Mooresville
  • Tyler Conley - Avon (#11 / #4SS) @ Mooresville

This Mooresville regional is really creating some tough matchups @ Evansville semistate!  From the look of results, Boarman and Littell should be favorites to win their regionals. Boarman has a good chance that he will have to face either Montgomery or Conley in the ticket round.  Either way will have huge implications for state scoring potential cause all these guys could win a few at state. Boarman has a 4-1 decision over Conley this year

126 Pounds

New Castle Semistate

  • Lukasz Walendzak - Cathedral (#6 / #1SS) @ Pendleton Heights
  • Chase Wilkerson - Mt Vernon (#9 / #4SS) @ Pendleton Heights
  • Logan Wagner - Westfield (#7 / #2SS) @ North Montgomery
  • Cameron Toole - Lebanon (#8 / #5SS) @ North Montgomery
  • Jevian Ross - Warren Central (#11 / #3SS) @ Perry Meridian

Big landmine for Cathedral and Warren here. Wilkerson defeated Walendzak 2-1 at sectional last weekend. If Walendzak finishes 2nd again this weekend, he could get Ross, Wagner or Toole for ticket round at New Castle. If Walendzak wins this weekend, he could still wind up in same bracket as either Wagner or Toole.  He has split decisions with Wagner this season

132 Pounds

Evansville Semistate

  • Asa Garcia - Avon (#1 / #1SS) @ Mooresville
  • Logan Boe - Plainfield (#7 / #2SS) @ Mooresville
  • Drake Campbell - Brownsburg (#9 / #4SS) @ Mooresville
  • Tyler Fuqua - Franklin Comm (#18 / #5SS) @ Mooresville
  • Clay Egli - Mater Dei (#11 / #3SS) @ Evansville North
  • Joey Gordon - Columbus East (#19 / #6SS) @ Jeffersonville

This landmine could hurt either Mater Dei or Columbus East (or both!).  Mooresville is stacked at this weight - they will send 4 highly ranked wrestlers to semistate.  Assuming Egli and Gordon both win their regionals, they will each have to make it past one of the Mooresville placers to get to Bankers Life

138 Pounds

New Castle Semistate

  • Tyce Freije - Roncalli (#2 / #1SS) @ Perry Meridian
  • Gabe Smith - Perry Meridian (#9 / #2SS) @ Perry Meridian
  • Jarred Rowlett - Warren Central (#12 / #5SS) @ Perry Meridian
  • Andrew Wilson - Cathedral (#16 / #3SS) @ Pendleton Heights
  • Chris Wilkerson - Mt Vernon (#17 / #7SS) @ Pendleton Heights

Wilkerson defeated Wilson 2-1 at sectionals. They will face off again this weekend at Pendleton. Perry regional is loaded at this weight - Smith and Rowlett should face off in the semifinals. If Freije can win regionals, then Smith and/or Rowlett could draw into Wilson or another tough opponent (Gabe Phillips/Kyle Holman) and have their trip to state cancelled.  Wilson really has his work cut out for him to get to Bankers Life and help Cathedral's point total - he's lost to Rowlett, Smith and Freije this season

145 Pounds

New Castle Semistate

  • Alex Mosconi - Cathedral (#3 / #1SS) @ Pendleton Heights
  • Jeff Dunasky - Guerin (#9 / #5SS) @ Pendleton Heights
  • Aiden Warren - Perry Meridian (#4 / #2SS) @ Perry Meridian
  • Antwaun Graves - Warren Central (#5 / #4SS) @ Perry Meridian
  • Bryer Hall - South Dearborn (#2 / #3SS) @ Richmond

So many possibilities here!  Graves or Warren will be a #2 finisher this weekend and both are absolute hammers. Warren beat Graves in OT 4-3 earlier this season so this final could go either way. If Mosconi can beat Dunasky at Pendleton, then it sets up a possible ticket-round death match of Mosconi vs Graves/Warren or Bryer Hall vs Graves/Warren unless they happen to draw the winner from North Montgomery.  Cathedral/Perry/Warren could all lose a super high potential guy next weekend at New Castle

152 Pounds

New Castle Semistate

  • Cooper Noehre - Greenfield Central (#3 / #2SS) @ Perry Meridian
  • Brice Coleman - Warren Central (#4 / #3SS) @ Perry Meridian
  • Sam Fair - Perry Meridian (#9 / #4SS) @ Perry Meridian
  • Elliott Rodgers - Cathedral (#2 / #1SS) @ Pendleton Heights

Like 145, this is another very dangerous situation for Cathedral / Perry / Warren.  Rodgers should win at Pendleton.  The regional at Perry is a tossup (Fair has lost to both Noehre and Coleman, Coleman defeated Noehre last weekend).  Any of the 3 Perry competitors will be heavily favored over the winners from Richmond and North Montgomery, but if one of them lands in the ticket group with Rodgers then it will be a high-stakes battle, as any of these top 10 wrestlers could end up scoring a lot of points in Indy

160 Pounds

Not really any here that I see - D Washington, J Slivka, and B Davis should all win comfortably and be separated at their semistates unless there is a big upset.  Most of the other top 160s are from teams not challenging for state title

170 Pounds

New Castle Semistate

  • Tyler Wagner - Cathedral (#20 / #6SS) @ Pendleton Heights
  • Cody Klettheimer - Frankton (#3 / #1SS) @ Pendleton Heights
  • Eli Mahan - Roncalli (#5 / #3SS) @ Perry Meridian
  • Tucker Coffman - Union County (#8 / #5SS) @ Richmond
  • Logan Hart - Carmel (#10 / #4SS) @ North Montgomery

It's going to be very difficult for Tyler Wagner to thread the needle and make it to state. He will have Klettheimer at Pendleton Heights who will be heavily favored.  Should Wagner finish as runner up, then he will have to get past either Mahan, Coffman or one of Hart/Saez/Lowe in the ticket round. Can he pull out an upset and give Cathedral a potential huge upside of points?

182 Pounds

Nothing really here - Avon is the only top team to have a wrestler in the Top 20 and Brewer should be safe through semistate no matter the outcome of regionals

195 Pounds

Again, not much to see. Perry Meridian's #12 Austin Lane should win there.  He could have #13 Tremor Bynum at semistate ticket round

220 Pounds

Evansville Semistate

  • Micah Dodson - Martinsville (#7 / #2SS) @ Mooresville
  • Jayden Williams - Avon (#11 / #3SS) @ Mooresville
  • Lawson Allen - Brownsburg (#12 / #4SS) @ Mooresville
  • Jacob Bolte - Columbus East (#1 / #1SS) @ Jeffersonville

Bolte should be fine, but the outcome at Mooresville could be a swing in points down the road. Avon and Brownsburg will have to hope their wrestler can finish #1, or if they do not, then hope that they do not draw to the Bolte ticket bracket at Evansville semistate or they could leave points on the table

New Castle Semistate

  • David Guhl - Cathedral (#20 / #5SS) @ Pendleton Heights
  • Kyle Cornwell - Elwood (#4 / #2SS) @ Pendleton Heights
  • Andrew Irick - Hamilton SE (#3 / #1SS) @ North Montgomery
  • Drew Webster - North Montgomery (#8 / #3SS) @ North Montgomery
  • Haakon VanBeynan - Carmel (#16 / #8SS) @ North Montgomery

Guhl has the potential to make it to state, but he will have to navigate some landmines - if he finishes a likely 2nd place to Kyle Cornwell this weekend, then he will need to get past one of the North Montgomery top 3 - best scenario for him matchup-wise is to get the #4 from North Montgomery and the #1 from Richmond as they have nobody on either the state or semistate list

285 Pounds

New Castle Semistate

  • Jamichael Watts - North Central (#1 / #1SS) @ Pendleton Heights
  • Dennis Hubbard - Warren Central (#9 / #3SS) @ Perry Meridian
  • John Harris - Roncalli (#10 / #5SS) @ Perry Meridian

The big guys are pretty unpredictable - Roncalli's John Harris defeated Hubbard at sectionals.  If Harris can win again then he should be in a good spot to make it through New Castle.  If he loses, however, then the danger is that he is put in the same ticket round bracket as Watts from North Central, the #1 heavyweight in the state.  Roncalli will need these points and potential bonus points if they want to make a run at the top.

 

 

I'm sure I missed some great matchups. Mater Dei is #1 and Cathedral is #2 in the Power Poll, but both of them have a LOT of tough matchups due to the depth of talent at the Mooresville and Perry Meridian regionals.  Columbus East doesn't seem to have as many matchup issues - so who knows maybe them, Avon or Roncalli will be in the drivers seat in a couple of weeks

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