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Michigan at Penn State this Friday


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6 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

Should be a good dual with a couple of Indiana boys with tough matches.

#7 Lee vs #5 Storr at 141

#7 Parris vs #3 Cassar at 285

It will be live on BTN, so as long as you have a cable/satellite/streaming subscription with BTN you can watch.

Should be a good one, until Wolverines walk into murders row, starting at 157. The same problem for everybody on States schedule.

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Yes, Penn State is a nightmare matchup for anyone, but Michigan might have a chance given how banged up Penn State is at the moment.

Will Shakur Rasheed, Roman Bravo-Young, Brady Berge wrestle?

Likely Line ups: (these are just my best guess)

125 - Mattan/Schnupp

133 - #1Micic/?(#14Bravo-Young)

141 - #5Storr/#7Lee

149 - Malik Amine/?(#10Berge)

157 - #11Pantaleo/#1Nolf

165 - #7Massa/#1Joseph

174 - #3Miles Amine/#1Hall

184 - Correll/?(#7Rasheed)

197 - Striggow/#1Nickal

285 - #7Parris/#3Cassar

125, 141, 149, 184 & 285 are all toss up matches with the question marks for Penn State at 149 & 184.

Michigan is a strong favorite at 133 with bonus points possible especially if Bravo-Young is unable to go. Penn State is pretty much a lock for bonus points at 197.

And while Penn State is a strong favorite at 157, 165 & 174, Michigan has strong wrestlers at these weights as well. If Michigan can eliminate or at least minimize bonus points at these 3 weights it should be very interesting.

 

Edited by SIACfan
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1 hour ago, SIACfan said:

Yes, Penn State is a nightmare matchup for anyone, but Michigan might have a chance given how banged up Penn State is at the moment.

Will Shakur Rasheed, Roman Bravo-Young, Brady Berge wrestle?

Likely Line ups: (these are just my best guess)

125 - Mattan/Schnupp

133 - #1Micic/?(#14Bravo-Young)

141 - #5Storr/#7Lee

149 - Malik Amine/?(#10Berge)

157 - #11Pantaleo/#1Nolf

165 - #7Massa/#1Joseph

174 - #3Miles Amine/#1Hall

184 - Correll/?(#7Rasheed)

197 - Striggow/#1Nickal

285 - #7Parris/#3Cassar

125, 141, 149, 184 & 285 are all toss up matches with the question marks for Penn State at 149 & 184.

Michigan is a strong favorite at 133 with bonus points possible especially if Bravo-Young is unable to go. Penn State is pretty much a lock for bonus points at 197.

And while Penn State is a strong favorite at 157, 165 & 174, Michigan has strong wrestlers at these weights as well. If Michigan can eliminate or at least minimize bonus points at these 3 weights it should be very interesting.

 

The only match I don't see bonus points for are 41,49and 74. At 33 pin, 57 pin, 65 joseph major, 84 Rasheed pin,97 pin. And I think 285 will produce a pin.

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18 minutes ago, Disco said:

The only match I don't see bonus points for are 41,49and 74. At 33 pin, 57 pin, 65 joseph major, 84 Rasheed pin,97 pin. And I think 285 will produce a pin.

You certainly could be right, but I believe 285 will be one of the best matches of the meet. No bonus points here.

184 is dependent on if Rasheed is able to wrestle - he has been out with injury.

157 & 165 could both easily be bonus points for Penn State, but both Pantaleo & Massa are no slouches.

133 is dependent on the health of Bravo-Young, but yes a pin is very possible here.

I agree on 197. Pin is very likley for Nickal.

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Rasheed is expected back, but not 100%.  Berge had the flu last week and didn't travel.  Bravo-Young - it's hard to say but my guess is he won't go.  

To me swing matches are 141 (I say 55/45 Lee), 149 (true 50/50), 165 (Joseph 65/35), 174 (Hall 70/30) and 285 (Cassar 63/37).  125 and 133 should go to Michigan
157, 184 & 197 to Penn State 

Team scores should be somewhere between 28-11 and 20-17, both with Penn State wiining.

 

Also note, the match is being held at the Bryce Jordan Center which has a capacity of 15k and they will fill it.  

Edited by SWINfan
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7 minutes ago, SWINfan said:

lso note, the match is being held at the Bryce Jordan Center which has a capacity of $15k and they will fill it.  

And to think, Sunday at Wilkinson Hall it was great with 2500, near capacity. 

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57 minutes ago, SWINfan said:

Rasheed is expected back, but not 100%.  Berge had the flu last week and didn't travel.  Bravo-Young - it's hard to say but my guess is he won't go.  

To me swing matches are 141 (I say 55/45 Lee), 149 (true 50/50), 165 (Joseph 65/35), 174 (Hall 70/30) and 285 (Cassar 63/37).  125 and 133 should go to Michigan
157, 184 & 197 to Penn State 

Team scores should be somewhere between 28-11 and 20-17, both with Penn State wiining.

 

Also note, the match is being held at the Bryce Jordan Center which has a capacity of 15k and they will fill it.  

I agree with your thoughts on 141. I would put 149 at 55/45 (Penn State) as well if Berge is wrestling. I'd also say 285 is 55/45 (Cassar) because of his experience. I'd put 125 at 60/40 (Mich). Schnupp has been wrestling well.

I agree about 157, 184 & 197 if Rasheed is going.

But I'd put 165 & 174 both at 80/20 (Penn State) with bonus points being the bigger question over win/loss.

So I have Penn State sweeping 157-197 (If Rasheed goes) with bonus points being the question mark. 133 to Michigan (bonus points in play), and 125, 141, 149 & 285 being what will make the difference between a Penn State rout or a tight meet.

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Joseph only beat Massa 5-4 at Big Tens last year, and it was a close 5-3 match in their dual until Joseph hit an inside trip for 6 in the last 30 seconds to win 11-3.  A major isn't out of the question, but I suspect it will be rather close. 

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3 hours ago, navy80 said:

It's a win win if Nick Lee and Mason Parris win!

This will certainly be a big challenge for Mason, facing a smaller Hwt that is just as quick and strong (maybe quicker and stronger) that has only lost once when facing a full sized Hwt in a tight match.  The following match will be against Northwestern's Conan Jennings, a full size Hwt, he lost to at the Midlands.  Those two matches will give us a major view into how ready Mason is to challenge for All-American status.

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15 hours ago, MD92 said:

Joseph only beat Massa 5-4 at Big Tens last year, and it was a close 5-3 match in their dual until Joseph hit an inside trip for 6 in the last 30 seconds to win 11-3.  A major isn't out of the question, but I suspect it will be rather close. 

Since that Match, Massa, for what ever reason hasn't been very sharp. maybe injury or lost some motivation, but really he has digressed from freshman season. He may bounce back. But I see this as a bonus point match for Penn st,

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Massa is 12-3 with 8 of his wins being bonus points, so I don't know about him not being too sharp.  I've only seen Michigan vs Ohio St this year.  Massa has 3 losses, all to top 10 kids, this year.  I'm not saying he'll beat Joseph, but I think he keeps it under a major.

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How about this for a monkey wrench? Does Michigan gamble? 

Say Roman Bravo Young is unlikely to wrestle. Does Michigan put their number 2 guy on the mat at 133, bump Micic up to wrestle Lee at 141 and bump Storr up to wrestle Berge/Verkleeren at 149?

Of course, they won't know about RBY for sure until after they put their wrestler on the mat (as the away team). So big risk, but potentially big reward? There are weight rules to consider too (can't stray to far from their normal weight or they risk the next match too). But is the chance to end a 54 match win streak enough incentive to get a little jiggy with it?

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1 hour ago, wrestlenewbie said:

How about this for a monkey wrench? Does Michigan gamble? 

Say Roman Bravo Young is unlikely to wrestle. Does Michigan put their number 2 guy on the mat at 133, bump Micic up to wrestle Lee at 141 and bump Storr up to wrestle Berge/Verkleeren at 149?

Of course, they won't know about RBY for sure until after they put their wrestler on the mat (as the away team). So big risk, but potentially big reward? There are weight rules to consider too (can't stray to far from their normal weight or they risk the next match too). But is the chance to end a 54 match win streak enough incentive to get a little jiggy with it?

Micic can major, possibly tech or pin an injured RBY or backup 133. He could lose the match to Lee. Storr will get beat by Berge. No way Michigan makes this move. 

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3 hours ago, wrestlenewbie said:

How about this for a monkey wrench? Does Michigan gamble? 

Say Roman Bravo Young is unlikely to wrestle. Does Michigan put their number 2 guy on the mat at 133, bump Micic up to wrestle Lee at 141 and bump Storr up to wrestle Berge/Verkleeren at 149?

Of course, they won't know about RBY for sure until after they put their wrestler on the mat (as the away team). So big risk, but potentially big reward? There are weight rules to consider too (can't stray to far from their normal weight or they risk the next match too). But is the chance to end a 54 match win streak enough incentive to get a little jiggy with it?

No, very rare to bump guys up in college.  The skill level is generally too close to overcome the weight disadvantage.  Especially since duals mean next to nothing in college, there really is no point.

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38 minutes ago, MD92 said:

No, very rare to bump guys up in college.  The skill level is generally too close to overcome the weight disadvantage.  Especially since duals mean next to nothing in college, there really is no point.

Agree there won't be a bump. But surely you remember Ohio St. at Penn St. last year. No way you can say these big duals mean nothing. The place will be rocking and there will be scratching and clawing for every bonus point possible until it's decided.

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4 hours ago, wrestlenewbie said:

How about this for a monkey wrench? Does Michigan gamble? 

Say Roman Bravo Young is unlikely to wrestle. Does Michigan put their number 2 guy on the mat at 133, bump Micic up to wrestle Lee at 141 and bump Storr up to wrestle Berge/Verkleeren at 149?

Of course, they won't know about RBY for sure until after they put their wrestler on the mat (as the away team). So big risk, but potentially big reward? There are weight rules to consider too (can't stray to far from their normal weight or they risk the next match too). But is the chance to end a 54 match win streak enough incentive to get a little jiggy with it?

It's an interesting thought if for no other reason than to see a Lee/Micic rematch. A second Indiana studs college rematch would be awesome.

But as others have said it is unlikely. I actually believe Michigan has a better chance leaving their weights alone. If they bump Micic to 141, they could easily turn a bonus point win at 133 into a loss. I believe Micic would likely beat Lee but not with bonus points. And Storr would struggle to beat Berge at 149. If Berge & Bravo-Young are good to go it would likely backfire.

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OK, so next question. Everyone seems to think that Lee (#7 at 141) would beat Micic  (#1 at 133) (me too, BTW) in their rematch and that Berge (#12 at 149) would beat Storr (#5 at 141).

So how big a ranking spread would you think would be too much for the heavier wrestler to prevail?

Say the #1 wrestler at a lower weight went up to wrestle #10 at the weight above him. Is that a big enough spread to make the lighter #1 favored? For example, if Micic were wrestling Matt Findlay from Utah Valley (#10 141) who would be favored? How about against Mitch McKee from Minnesota (#9 141)? etc.

There are some obvious exceptions to any rule. Clearly if Nolf went up to 165 he would still be favored against almost anyone (even his teammate Joseph?). And Nickal did go up to 197 this year to allow Rasheed to drop down to 185 and Nickal was instantly #1 at the higher weight.

Note: all my rankings above are from Flo

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1 hour ago, wrestlenewbie said:

OK, so next question. Everyone seems to think that Lee (#7 at 141) would beat Micic  (#1 at 133) (me too, BTW) in their rematch and that Berge (#12 at 149) would beat Storr (#5 at 141).

So how big a ranking spread would you think would be too much for the heavier wrestler to prevail?

Say the #1 wrestler at a lower weight went up to wrestle #10 at the weight above him. Is that a big enough spread to make the lighter #1 favored? For example, if Micic were wrestling Matt Findlay from Utah Valley (#10 141) who would be favored? How about against Mitch McKee from Minnesota (#9 141)? etc.

There are some obvious exceptions to any rule. Clearly if Nolf went up to 165 he would still be favored against almost anyone (even his teammate Joseph?). And Nickal did go up to 197 this year to allow Rasheed to drop down to 185 and Nickal was instantly #1 at the higher weight.

Note: all my rankings above are from Flo

I think those that mentioned Lee beating Micic was a possible scenario, and not that people thought it would happen.  Meaning risky for UM and that strategy. Maybe I misinterpreted what I read.  Personally, the way Stevan is wrestling right now. I think he'd beat Nick about as badly as he did in 2014.  But I don't think it is a given.

And to answer your question, there is no realistic answer.  For example the quality of the #10 wrestler is likely to vary greatly in each weight class, so what might make sense for 133 wouldn't make sense at all for 174.  Also, the quality of the #1 wrestler in each class is not the same.  The match ups I'd like to see are Micic vs. Yianni and Micic vs. McKenna.

Edited by SWINfan
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