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NCAA Division I qualifiers with Indiana ties (w/pairings and seeds)


maligned

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Let's start a list of Indiana-related D1 qualifiers as they happen this weekend.

 

An interesting one to watch already is Zack Davis. After being varsity for Navy at 133 for two years and qualifying for NCAAs last year, he was up a weight at 141 and couldn't crack the lineup. At the end of the season, he's slid into the lineup all the way up at 157, wrestling their final dual there and starting his EIWA campaign yesterday. He started with a bang, taking out the 3-seed in the 16-man bracket, then lost a tight one to the 6 seed before picking up a wrestle-back win. He needs two more wins today to get into the Top 4 and qualify for NCAAs in a most unlikely manner as an undersized, unseeded upstart. He's got unseeded Rifanburg of Binghamton to start the morning and would most likely have the 8-seed from Brown in the "NCAA qualifier round" if he wins.

 

UPDATED LIST AND AT-LARGE ANNOUNCEMENT DAY ANALYSIS ON PAGE 2 OF THIS THREAD

 

FINALIZED LIST WITH SEEDS AND PAIRINGS ON PAGE 2 ALSO

Edited by maligned
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At Big 10s, Oliver and Thornton of IU and Purdue go through first round at 125. Micic wins his first match easily also. No other first round winners with Indiana ties through 4 weights.

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Davis rolls to a 12-0 consolation win. He'll have the 8-seed Galiardo of Brown in the round to go. National #19 Lopez of Bucknell that Davis upset yesterday has plowed through everyone since, confirming the nice upset from Davis. One more and he's a very, very nice story heading to NCAAs.

 

I forgot to mention that Ben Harvey of Army WP is also at this tournament as the #7 seed. He's in a loaded EIWA that has 6 allocated spots for nationals. He needs to win his shortly upcoming consolation match against the #6 seed Schleifer of Princeton to advance to NCAAs.

Edited by maligned
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Brock Hudkins is the 7-seed in the MAC tournament wrestling for Northern Illinois. He took out national #14 and tournament 2-seed Fleetwood of Central Michigan in the quarters. He then falls to nationally ranked Peters of Northern Iowa in the semi's. He'll most likely have national #15 McGhee of Missouri next and the 2, 3, or 4 seed if he loses that. If he wins one of those matches and finishes at least 5th, he goes to NCAAs.

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Stevan Micic guarantees his qualification for nationals as a semi-finalist at Big 10s--as does Oliver at 125 and Nate Jackson at 184 for IU. Guys need to finish somewhere between 6th and 9th, depending on the NCAA allocation for their weight.

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How about Drew Hughes of Lowell... qualifies at 165 with at least a sixth place finish now at the Big 10s.  Defeats Burcher of OSU, 1-0, to guarantee qualifing.  Now awaits the loser of Jordan (WI) vs. Massa (MI).  How does Da Rat feel about Da second Region boy, Drew, movin' along with Mr. Micic?

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From the looks of it Drew Hughes went to Stall camp. 1-0! In all seriousness wow! Twice tied at 0-0 in the third he chose top and got 2 minutes of riding time. In another match he got over 5 minutes. People better start fearing choosing bottom because you're not getting out. He's going to rip off your arm in a half and beat you with it.

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From the looks of it Drew Hughes went to Stall camp. 1-0! In all seriousness wow! Twice tied at 0-0 in the third he chose top and got 2 minutes of riding time. In another match he got over 5 minutes. People better start fearing choosing bottom because you're not getting out. He's going to rip off your arm in a half and beat you with it.

True Story.
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Updated status heading into today:

 

Davis and Harvey both fall one win short at EIWAs.

 

At MACs, Brock Hudkins is in a LOADED 125lb class, with 5 spots allocated for NCAAs PLUS All-American Dylan Peters, who's been hurt and didn't have enough matches to earn an allocation. Brock already has a razor-thin win over #14 Fleetwood and a razor-thin loss to Peters. He's guaranteed Top 6 and already outpacing his #7 seed, but he needs to win one of his next two to place top 5 and earn an NCAA berth. He's got FLO #15 McGhee of Missouri, the defending MAC champ, next and he'll have the loser of the 3-seed vs 4-seed matchup if he loses. This tournament has been on WatchESPN for every round, but for some reason the broadcast schedule at the WatchESPN site is showing a 2pm ET start time, which would be the start of 7th place matches rather than including the 1-hour conso semi-finals starting at 1pm ET/12pm CT. If this is the case, we can follow the match on Track and look for Hudkins' placement match at 3pm ET.

 

At Big 10s:

 

Already clinched a spot at NCAAs:

Stevan Micic of Michigan (133)

Oliver of IU (125)

Jackson of IU (184)

Alex Griffin of Purdue (149)

Drew Hughes of Michigan St (165)

Morrissey of Purdue (174)

Skatska of IU (174)

Bobby Steveson of Minnesota (184)

 

Others in contention for automatic bids at Big 10s (CP = Coaches' Panel ranking, which, along with the RPI calculation, is used as one ranking in determining allocations and post-conference tournament at-large bids):

125: Unranked Thornton of Purdue vs CP #23 Rodriguez of Illinois for 7th place (top 7 get bids)

157: CP #29 Danishek of IU vs Unranked Ryan of Ohio St for 9th place (top 9 get bids)

184: CP #21 Sliga of Northwestern vs FLO #11 Gravina of Rutgers for 9th place (top 9 get bids)

197: FLO #19 Brunner of Purdue vs Unranked Wilcke of Iowa for 7th place (top 7 get bids)

 

In the cases of Danishek, Sliga, and Brunner, they would be top contenders for at-large bids if they don't win today (Sliga and Brunner would be almost automatic based on past at-large selection committee habits since they're ranked highly by the CP and in the RPI). For Thornton of Purdue and Hudkins coming out of the MAC, it would get dicey as to whether they'd get into the field if they don't earn a bid today.

 

Others that competed at Big 10s and elsewhere:

 

Garrett Pepple, Bryce Martin, Fletcher Miller, Luke Welch, Kyle Ayersman, Dylan Lydy, Tanner Lynde, Tyler Kral, Shabaka Johns, and Sean Mappes are other ex-Indiana high schoolers that attempted to qualify. Of these, Luke Welch (#23 RPI, #30 CP) and Bryce Martin (#28 RPI, #25 CP) will be in the conversation for at-large bids. Lydy (RPI #27) and Ayersman (CP #29, defaulted out of Big 10s) could get a look but it doesn't feel promising.

 

Am I missing anybody?

Edited by maligned
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How about Drew Hughes of Lowell... qualifies at 165 with at least a sixth place finish now at the Big 10s.  Defeats Burcher of OSU, 1-0, to guarantee qualifing.  Now awaits the loser of Jordan (WI) vs. Massa (MI).  How does Da Rat feel about Da second Region boy, Drew, movin' along with Mr. Micic?

Darat feeling mitty fine dis morning. Our region boys keepin our legacy rollin. Listen here Micic will be in da finals in 2 weeks.

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Hudkins beat McGhee 2-1 tb to advance to the 3/4 match. NCAA qualifier as a true freshman.

Awesome!!  Beats #14 and #15 in the country to do it.

 

A couple Purdue 7th place results we were tracking above: Thornton at 125 loses and doesn't qualify and Brunner at 197 wins to earn his spot.

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Updated list of qualifiers and at-large possibilities:

 

Qualifiers from Indiana high schools:

 

Brock Hudkins of Northern Illinois (125)

Stevan Micic of Michigan (133)

Alex Griffin of Purdue (149)

Drew Hughes of Michigan St (165)

Bobby Steveson of Minnesota (184)

 

Other qualifiers from in-state schools:

 

Oliver of IU (125)

Danishek of IU (157)

Skatzka of IU (174)

Jackson of IU (184)

 

Morrissey of Purdue (174)

Brunner of Purdue (197)

 

Very good at-large résumés that provide a strong possibility of still getting a bid:

 

Luke Welch of Purdue (133)

Bryce Martin of IU (165)

Mitch Sliga of Northwestern (184)

 

Outside chance at an at-large bid:

 

Ben Thornton of Purdue (125)

Kyle Ayersman of Purdue (141)

Dylan Lydy of Purdue (165)

Edited by maligned
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Very good at-large résumés that provide a strong possibility of still getting a bid:

 

Luke Welch of Purdue (133)

Bryce Martin of IU (165)

Mitch Sliga of Northwestern (184)

 

Outside chance at an at-large bid:

 

Ben Thornton of Purdue (125)

Kyle Ayersman of Purdue (141)

Dylan Lydy of Purdue (165)

 

With today being the day that NCAA D1 at-large bids come out, here is some analysis.

 

Published requirements for being in the at-large pool are meeting at least 2 of these 5 criteria:

-.700 win%

-finishing one spot from qualification at your conference tournament

-owning a season win over an automatic qualifier

-Top 33 RPI calculation

-Top 33 Coaches' Panel ranking (CR)

 

Published selection committee decision-making weighted criteria:

-head-to-head (H2H) results (25%)

-quality wins (20%)

-CR (15%)

-common opponent results, RPI, win%, qualifying placement (10% each)

 

Prospectus for the 3 guys above with the best chance to get at-large bids:

 

Luke Welch-133 (#30 CR, #23 RPI)

--4 spots available

--probably behind these guys:

Stickley-Wisconsin (H2H,CR, qualifying placement)

Hall-Iowa St (CR,RPI,Win%)

Devoy-Drexel (CR, RPI...injury defaulted at semi's of qualifying)

Smith-App St. (CR, RPI, qualifying placement)

Kelly-Ohio (CR, RPI)

Gomez-Rivera of American (2 bad losses at qualifier, but higher CR and RPI)

Schram-Stanford (CR, qualifying placement)

--possibly behind:

Cefelo-Rider (Cefelo better CR by a couple spots, Welch better RPI by a couple spots, Cefelo possibly evaluated as better qualification placement)

 

Thoughts: It's not looking as good for Welch as I thought when I looked at his CR and RPI numbers. A LOT of good guys are here who got upset and fell just one spot out of qualifying or were injured. The one ace up Welch's sleeve is a couple of nice wins against guys with higher CR and RPI numbers than most guys listed here. It unfortunately seems doubtful his couple quality wins alone will trump everything else on all these guys' resumes, though.

 

Bryce Martin-165 (#25 CR, #28 RPI)

--7 spots available

--probably behind these guys:

Gunther-Iowa

Fogarty-ND St

Mejias-Oklahoma

Subjeck-Stanford

 

--possibly behind 

Burcher-Ohio St (tossup)

Williams-Nebraska (Martin maybe slight edge)

Walter-Lehigh (lean toward Walter)

Daniels-Navy (Martin the edge)

Wright-Old Dominion (tossup)

Marinelli of Gardner-Webb (Martin the edge)

 

Thoughts: He's got a real shot. Most likely in the 6-8 range with 7 spots available, so I'd give him a better than 50-50 shot. That two-and-out at Big 10s doesn't look good, but both were to top 20 guys, so he shouldn't be penalized too much.

 

Mitch Sliga-184 (#21 CR, #21 RPI)

--5 spots available

--probably behind: nobody

--possibly behind: Corba-Cleveland St. (Sliga better CR; Corba better RPI...edge to Sliga)

 

Thoughts: This one is a slam dunk. Every qualifying tournament went virtually exactly according to rankings and seeding at 184. At Big 10s, Sliga is the 9th seed and gets 10th while the 10-seed Steveson takes the auto bid instead, meaning Sliga will clearly be viewed as a "just missed" type of guy. He is clearly the top candidate available by every criterion, with only one guy in the country having a slight argument over him--and there are 5 slots to give.

Edited by maligned
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Bids already came out. Only Sliga got in. All 3 of the guys I said had a slight edge or were tossups vs Martin of IU got in, plus the 4 I said were probables. He was most likely the very next guy in line.

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Here's the final list with first round pairings and some potential later match-ups:

 

Brock Hudkins (Danville HS) of Northern Illinois (125)

vs. #5 Lambert of Nebraska

 

Elijah Oliver of IU (125)

vs. #8 Piccininni of Oklahoma St.

 

#5 Stevan Micic (Hanover Central HS) of Michigan (133)

vs. Chris Debien (17-9) of Chattanooga; possibly #12 Alber of N. Illinois 2nd round; potential monster quarter vs. #4 Clark of Iowa and semi vs. #1 Tomasello of Ohio St.

 

Alex Griffin (McCutcheon HS) of Purdue (157)

vs. #5 Smith of Oklahoma St. (THAT Smith's son)

 

Jake Danishek of IU (157)

vs. #2 Kemerer of Iowa

 

#15 Drew Hughes (Lowell HS) of Michigan St (165)

vs. Keilan Torres (28-14) of N. Colorado; probably vs. #2 Massa of Michigan 2nd round

 

Devin Skatzka of IU (174)

vs. #2 Realbuto of Cornell

 

Jacob Morrissey of Purdue (174)

vs. #10 Brunson of Illinois

 

#9 Nate Jackson of IU (184)

vs. DeCiantis (21-12) of Drexel; possibly #8 Dechow of Old Dominion 2nd round

 

Bobby Steveson (Merrillville HS/Apple Valley HS) of Minnesota (184)

(rat-tail) vs. Nick Corba (23-8) Cleveland St.; winner gets #12 Foster of N. Illinois

 

Mitch Sliga (Fishers HS) of Northwestern (184)

vs. #2 Nickal of Penn St.

 

Christian Brunner of Purdue (197)

vs. #5 McCutcheon of Penn St.

Edited by maligned
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