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maligned

4 over 1 at semi-state...where will it happen this year?

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The infamous 4 over 1 upset at semi-state happens less than you think--only 10 out of 224 matches last year in the whole state. That's more than a 95% win percentage for the #1's. That being said, it happened at least twice at every semi-state. Where will it happen 2 or 3 times at your semi-state this year?

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I'll take:

 

Eliseus Young over Eli Elkins (145 @ Fort Wayne)

 

Travis Miller over Gerald Pearson (113 @ Fort Wayne)

Edited by NavyGonzo

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The infamous 4 over 1 upset at semi-state happens less than you think--only 10 out of 224 matches last year in the whole state. That's more than a 95% win percentage for the #1's. That being said, it happened at least twice at every semi-state. Where will it happen 2 or 3 times at your semi-state this year?

To add a couple more tidbits:

When these "upsets" happen at both semi-state and state, they tend to be the ones where you think they could logically happen rather than being genuine upsets. Last year, with the 10 that happened, the #4 seeds that won came from higher Category regionals (i.e. deeper regionals) in 8 of the 10 cases. And 7 of the 8 defeats I'm referring to were from Category 2 or 3 sectionals (i.e. not as deep). This means Category 2 and 3 regional champions lost 8.5% of the time while Category 4-6 regional champions lost only 2% of the time in the first round.

Interestingly, only Reese Rodriguez of Hammond Morton won his next match and went to state as a semi-state #4 seed. This is different from what we find at state. At state historically, if a #4 seed wins in the first round, they go on to advance in the next round and reach the semi-finals half the time. 

Edited by maligned

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To add a couple more tidbits:

When these "upsets" happen at both semi-state and state, they tend to be the ones where you think they could logically happen rather than being genuine upsets. Last year, with the 10 that happened, the #4 seeds that won came from higher Category regionals (i.e. deeper regionals) in 8 of the 10 cases. And 7 of the 8 I'm referring to were from Category 2 or 3 sectionals (i.e. not as deep). 

Sometimes the competitors from these deeper sectionals and regionals are still massive underdogs, considering the quality of some of their opponents. For example, even though Spencer Irick came from a tough regional and sectional, I can guarantee almost no one had him defeating Davison on Friday night.

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Sometimes the competitors from these deeper sectionals and regionals are still massive underdogs, considering the quality of some of their opponents. For example, even though Spencer Irick came from a tough regional and sectional, I can guarantee almost no one had him defeating Davison on Friday night.

For sure. Upsets still happen and that was one of them. My only point is that usually the #4's over #1's at both semi-state and state are reasonably predictable rather than genuine upsets. Irick was not one of those.

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New Castle

 

113- whoever had the bad luck to draw Gavin Rose.

Yeah, it's not a slam dunk against Holman of Carmel, but Rose is definitely the favorite there. Fair could struggle with Brady of Noblesville in the quarters, but it's hard to see those 4 at 113 from the PM regional not getting through.

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For sure. Upsets still happen and that was one of them. My only point is that usually the #4's over #1's at both semi-state and state are reasonably predictable rather than genuine upsets. Irick was not one of those.

 

2 questions for you:

 

1.  Which 4 over 1's do you see as the easiest to predict this year?   One from each semi-state perhaps?

2.  What, in your opinion was the biggest 4 over 1 upset last year at any of the semi-states?  

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Unseld of Lawrence North had to be taken to the hospital and forfeited to the 4 spot, can defiantly make his way through

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What are some of the memorable 4 over 1's?

The most memorable/biggest upset, of the first round, would have to be 2011 Fort Wayne Semi State:

 

Carter Delaney, FT Wayne Dwenger, (28-10) pinned Josh Ehr, South Adams, (40-0) 14 seconds into the 2nd period with a nasty cradle

 

I believe Ehr was ranked #2 in the State at the time and had a win that season over the eventual runner-up, Connor Mullins

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The most memorable/biggest upset, of the first round, would have to be 2011 Fort Wayne Semi State:

 

Carter Delaney, FT Wayne Dwenger, (28-10) pinned Josh Ehr, South Adams, (40-0) 14 seconds into the 2nd period with a nasty cradle

 

I believe Ehr was ranked #2 in the State at the time and had a win that season over the eventual runner-up, Connor Mullins

Nope we don't talk about that

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Evv semi state Smith over Michel and Ciccareli over Brown

Just curious to why all the picks against Michel. He is 2-0 vs semi state ranked kids. He has beat 5 kids in the semi state bracket and has beat rolley and seri who have beat fuller.

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Just curious to why all the picks against Michel. He is 2-0 vs semi state ranked kids. He has beat 5 kids in the semi state bracket and has beat rolley and seri who have beat fuller.

Nobody knows him. It's nothing against the kid at all. He is 46-2 so he is capable of punching his ticket and he does have a great draw.

 

Who are his two losses to?

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Just curious to why all the picks against Michel. He is 2-0 vs semi state ranked kids. He has beat 5 kids in the semi state bracket and has beat rolley and seri who have beat fuller.

 

 

Michel beat Rolley from Castle at 195 and looked very solid. Fuller is 170 though. Seri will lose to Wilderman most likely. Southridges schedule is no where near the strength of many schools. They have 2 out of 4 that might make it out of the SS. I'm higher on Schank.

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