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maligned

3A Team State Qualifying: thru State

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Maligned,

 

The same question that I have still holds.  What difference does it make whether the 9th best guy in a Regional is the worst wrestler in the state or an above average wrestler?  In either scenario, he's not even at the Regional to add to its difficulty.

 

Path difficulty, I will argue, should be calculated by how tough are the teams who are getting the lions share of the SSQ?  If your argument is that "they're in the regional and we have the data so why exclude the bottom teams?", then my retort to that would be "only sum the genius scores of the teams who actually got a guy to semi-state".  Those are ones making the path difficult.   

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I don't think it's uneven but I would guess CP is too heavy too

CP Chesterton Lowell valpo and I like what KV is doing

I would agree.  I've heard of possible realignment scenarios that sound horrendous though. 

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Consequently, the alleged realignment taking place next year will have no impact on the formula.  Will this realignment more evenly distribute power within the Regions' regionals is the question.

Ive heard rumors about the alignment.  Are we getting ahead of ourselves by saying there is significant alignment coming?   Give us a couple of examples whats rumored to be changing

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Maligned,

 

The same question that I have still holds. What difference does it make whether the 9th best guy in a Regional is the worst wrestler in the state or an above average wrestler? In either scenario, he's not even at the Regional to add to its difficulty.

 

Path difficulty, I will argue, should be calculated by how tough are the teams who are getting the lions share of the SSQ? If your argument is that "they're in the regional and we have the data so why exclude the bottom teams?", then my retort to that would be "only sum the genius scores of the teams who actually got a guy to semi-state". Those are ones making the path difficult.

I agree

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Ive heard rumors about the alignment.  Are we getting ahead of ourselves by saying there is significant alignment coming?   Give us a couple of examples whats rumored to be changing

Simply a rumor mind you, but I heard that a significant figure with the IHSAA threw out a scenario that puts virtually all of the DAC in the same regional.

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Simply a rumor mind you, but I heard that a significant figure with the IHSAA threw out a scenario that puts virtually all of the DAC in the same regional.

maybe off topic, but why do the same sectionals always go to the same regional.   Could they move them around a little bit?  Its not like Indiana is that geographically expansive of a state.   That would make it a little more interesting?

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maybe off topic, but why do the same sectionals always go to the same regional.   Could they move them around a little bit?  Its not like Indiana is that geographically expansive of a state.   That would make it a little more interesting?

Blind draw for regional assignments!  Interesting.  

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 "only sum the genius scores of the teams who actually got a guy to semi-state".  Those are ones making the path difficult.   

Careful...you might stumble into a reason to look back at how Categories are currently calculated.

 

Calumet regional had 12 teams with at least one semi-state qualifier.  Other regionals are in the same boat.

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Blind draw for regional assignments!  Interesting.  

Keep it in the same semi-state but draw it in.   Even another more radical possibility which would never happen, would be to  seed it based on some ranking criteria.   You have to agree on rankings, but  lets use  East Chicago SS.  Say Portage was ranked #1 going into sectionals.   Assuming they won their sectional, then they would get the #8 sectional.   Who knows what that would be,  but in my hypothetical example which is not based on any past criteria could be the  Twin Lakes sectional for example.  If this happened, we wouldn't have any of the chest beating about my Regional is the toughest and it might even out the distribution of qualifiers and eliminate bad draws at SS.     Just an idea.

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Maligned,

 

So are you agreeing with me about only summing the scores of the teams who got a SSQ?

Edited by IndianaMudflap

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Sorry, I was trying to give responses last night from my phone with no illustrations. Here is another example of how we determine Categories. Notice there's NO AVERAGING. It's a TOTAL of the projected semi-state quality guys from all of the teams added together. This creates the fullest picture of how "crowded" it is to try to squeeze through. You can see how the depth of mid-level teams after the first few create the crowdedness at Castle. However, the top-end talent at Calumet predictably ratchets up the state qualifier and placer numbers the following 2 weeks.

 

CALUMET Regional

ProjSSQualifiers         

11.76   Portage

9.38     Merrillville

5.87     Hobart

4.85     Lake Central

3.50     Hammond Gavit

2.91     Highland

2.67     Griffith

2.64     Calumet

2.02     Hammond Morton

1.73     Munster

1.63     Hammond

1.60     Lake Station Edison

1.58     River Forest

0.63     Hammond Clark

0.34     Gary West Side

0.27     Whiting

0.22     East Chicago Central

0.14     Hammond Bishop Noll

53.73  

This total is then divided by 14 weight classes to yield 4 "deserved" semi-state qualifiers per weight. This equals a Category 4 regional.

 

CASTLE Regional

ProjSSQualifiers         

10.70   Evansville Mater Dei

9.58     Castle

5.76     Evansville Memorial

4.51     North Posey

4.21     Evansville Reitz

4.11     Mount Vernon (Posey)

3.45     Gibson Southern

3.43     Pike Central

3.30     Princeton

3.19     Vincennes Lincoln

2.46     Evansville Central

2.00     Heritage Hills

1.61     Tecumseh

1.57     Boonville

1.50     Evansville Harrison

0.94     Evansville Bosse

0.89     Tell City

0.86     Evansville North

0.46     South Spencer

0.40     Wood Memorial

64.93  

This total is divided by the 14 weight classes and we arrive at 5 "deserved" semi-state qualifiers per weight. That's a Category 5 regional.

Mudflap...you can see again here that there is no summing or averaging in any way of Genius ratings.  These are the total expected semi-state qualifiers from teams of these quality levels if they wrestled in an average regional.

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Mudflap...you can see again here that there is no summing or averaging in any way of Genius ratings. These are the total expected semi-state qualifiers from teams of these quality levels if they wrestled in an average regional.

How often are the number adjusted?

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How often are the number adjusted?

If you're talking about the sectional and regional classifications.  The ratings are updated each year prior to sectionals and  are  based on the genius ratings from that season.  That's one reason why its important to get all the dual scores in.   The more dual scores, the more accurate the Genius, then the more accurate the sectional and regional ratings.

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Mudflap...you can see again here that there is no summing or averaging in any way of Genius ratings.  These are the total expected semi-state qualifiers from teams of these quality levels if they wrestled in an average regional.

 

Should have said, "only sum the expected SSQ of the teams who actually got a guy to semi state".  The teams who don't get a SSQ are irrelevant to the regional's strength.

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Also, based on Fort Wayne Semi-State only winning 20 matches on Friday night, why not have categories for the semi-states?  Evansville, New Castle, and East Chicago took Fort Wayne's lunch money and I'm sure there were state qualifiers at Fort Wayne who had no business even making the ticket round at the other three sites.

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Im going to beat a dead horse to help Mike understand the Sectional and Regional qualifying points.      This might help Mike understand why the Lafayette Sectional is a Four and the Fabled Calumet Regional is also a Four.  I know that's driving Mike and  Brickfor  crazy that  these sectionals get are equal.    The premise I hope to prove is that the depth is similar.   And again Calumet scored more points at SS and State but when you look at the difficulty of placing in sectional, these two are similar.  The math proves it.   Note I just had Maligned's graph so I had to eyeball  the Historic Qualifiers per Genius ratings,  but Adrian can double check my work easily.

 

Here's the Genius rating and allotted regional qualifiers.

Calumet Sectional

 

School             Genius           Historical qual

 

Portage             103.87               13.75  

Hobart                 65.43               10.50

Highland              38.56                6.50 

Griffith                  35.84                6.25

Calumet               35.50                6.25

Lake St Edi          21.38                4.00

River Forest         21.03                4.00

Gary W side         -9.61                1.90

 

Total                                             53.15

Per 14 Qualifiers                          3.80

 

 

  Lafayette Jeff Sectional

 

School            Genius              Historic Qual

Harrison            79.89                  12.50

Laf Jeff              64.10                  10.40

West Laf            50.16                   8.50

McCutch            39.92                   7.00

Delphi                18.27                   4.00

Bent Cen           16.47                   3.90

Rossville           13.04                    3.75

Laf Cent Cath     8.54                    3.00

Frontier               1.30                    2.50

Faith Christian   -21.16                  1.00

Carroll Flora      -28.63                     .90

 

Total                                              57.15

 

Per 14 Qualifiers                           4.08 

 

The end result is Lafayette is a 4.08 and Calumet is a 3.8.  So conclusion, Lafayette Jeff is a little tougher sectional  to place in the top 4 then Calumet   Both  sectionals get rounded  to 4 but Calumet receives the benefit of the rounding.  Interesting.  It does show that actual season results mean something as reflected by the Genius ratings.

Edited by Wrestling Scholar

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Im going to beat a dead horse to help Mike understand the Sectional and Regional qualifying points. This might help Mike understand why the Lafayette Sectional is a Four and the Fabled Calumet Regional is also a Four. I know that's driving Mike and Brickfor crazy that these sectionals get are equal. The premise I hope to prove is that the depth is similar. And again Calumet scored more points at SS and State but when you look at the difficulty of placing in sectional, these two are similar. The math proves it. Note I just had Maligned's graph so I had to eyeball the Historic Qualifiers per Genius ratings, but Adrian can double check my work easily.

 

Here's the Genius rating and allotted regional qualifiers.

Calumet Sectional

 

School Genius Historical qual

 

Portage 103.87 13.75

Hobart 65.43 10.50

Highland 38.56 6.50

Griffith 35.84 6.25

Calumet 35.50 6.25

Lake St Edi 21.38 4.00

River Forest 21.03 4.00

Gary W side -9.61 1.90

 

Total 53.15

Per 14 Qualifiers 3.80

 

 

Lafayette Jeff Sectional

 

School Genius Historic Qual

Harrison 79.89 12.50

Laf Jeff 64.10 10.40

West Laf 50.16 8.50

McCutch 39.92 7.00

Delphi 18.27 4.00

Bent Cen 16.47 3.90

Rossville 13.04 3.75

Laf Cent Cath 8.54 3.00

Frontier 1.30 2.50

Faith Christian -21.16 1.00

Carroll Flora -28.63 .90

 

Total 57.15

 

Per 14 Qualifiers 4.08

 

The end result is Lafayette is a 4.08 and Calumet is a 3.8. So conclusion, Lafayette Jeff is a little tougher to place in the top 4 then Calumet Both sectionals get rounded to 4 but Calumet receives the benefit of the rounding. Interesting.

I don't need numbers to know who should and shouldn't be there i guess if we can't use common sense then the ihsaa is right we don't need a state tourneyb

Doesn't matter Harrison gets McCartney and crider out of calumets regionals and the 52.

explain that to me

Edited by ontherise219

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Should have said, "only sum the expected SSQ of the teams who actually got a guy to semi state".  The teams who don't get a SSQ are irrelevant to the regional's strength.

They do  the calculation before sectionals,  you don't what teams are going to get wrestlers to SS.    They're not irrelevant because when criteria is set, you don't know.

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I don't need numbers to know who should and shouldn't be there i guess if we can't use common sense then the ihsaa is right we don't need a state tourneyb

Doesn't matter Harrison gets McCartney and crider out of calumets regionals and the 52.

explain that to me

Now that makes sense.     Im just astonished that one of the rankers wouldn't use objective data, not that saying that you have a bias towards the Calumet Regional, or anything.     Just 2 out, hmmm.  Even after Ruiz beats Calumet Champ.   Don't think Betorne or Krintz get out.   Ok that's helpful to give some transparency on how you rate.  Ill keep this in mind when looking at the East Chicago SS rankings.

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Now that makes sense. Im just astonished that one of the rankers wouldn't use objective data, not that saying that you have a bias towards the Calumet Regional, or anything. Just 2 out, hmmm. Even after Ruiz beats Calumet Champ. Don't think Betorne or Krintz get out. Ok that's helpful to give some transparency on how you rate. Ill keep this in mind when looking at the East Chicago SS rankings.

Objective data there will be 3 or 4 kids returning who won't be in the line up next year like every year. Krintz doesn't get out bethone maybe and Ruiz wrestled his best match 8/10 times he doesn't win. what team in the top 20 does Harrison compete with? Honestly you don't need this to improve your schedule. tell me I'm wrong tell me how many you get of our calumet top heavy regional.

you put Harrison in the calumet regional they are Munster highland and Griffith. You know the teams you think are weak

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Objective data there will be 3 or 4 kids returning who won't be in the line up next year like every year. Krintz doesn't get out bethone maybe and Ruiz wrestled his best match 8/10 times he doesn't win. what team in the top 20 does Harrison compete with? Honestly you don't need this to improve your schedule. tell me I'm wrong tell me how many you get of our calumet top heavy regional.

you put Harrison in the calumet regional they are Munster highland and Griffith. You know the teams you think are weak

You're underselling the Harrison kids.

 

Harrison would get out

Hein   at 106-   106 was weak there.

Wade at 113-  He pinned the Merrilville kid that got 2nd.  He makes the finals.

McCartney easily 3rd

Betourne - makes the final

Ruiz-  Beat the champ he at least  places

Krintz- Wins 160

Powell- at 182 has a shot

Crider- wins it at 220

Kern at hwy-  He has a shot.

 

Interesting that you say that about Highland.   Harrison beat them 50 points and you think they're equal with two guys out of the lineup.   Give them a little respect.    Like I said earlier,  not that deep but good on top.

Edited by Wrestling Scholar

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Lafayette Harrison will not place high at State Series....but will be a tough Team State match for most teams. Will bring a lot of good wrestlers to the ticket round matches next year at E.C. semi-state...on the verge of breakimg into top 10. They can be the big surprise at the Team State next year if given the chance. Only one way to find out!!

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You're underselling the Harrison kids.

 

Harrison would get out

Hein at 106- 106 was weak there.

Wade at 113- He pinned the Merrilville kid that got 2nd. He makes the finals.

McCartney easily 3rd

Betourne - makes the final

Ruiz- Beat the champ he at least places

Krintz- Wins 160

Powell- at 182 has a shot

Crider- wins it at 220

Kern at hwy- He has a shot.

 

Interesting that you say that about Highland. Harrison beat them 50 points and you think they're equal with two guys out of the lineup. Give them a little respect. Like I said earlier, not that deep but good on top.

You want me to disrespect them that's why you keep bringing it up. Pick a sectional then cross it your wrestling a tough kid first rd

 

106 doesn't get out

113 pinned Juan maldonado Jacob wrestled 120 wade doesn't get out

120 Trey gets out no doubt. He is a stud

126 isn't top 2 maybe doesn't beat Luna or Hernandez when you cross

152 upset the champ I doubt he does it again based on his 4th place finish at logansport doesn't get out

160 doesn't get out lost didnt get out of the first round of semi state lucero guenero and Guerrero all beat him.

182 doesn't get out either Joey szydlo a ssq at 220 lost first rd at 182

220 Donnie wins it

285 doesn't get out either

Maybe 5

I'll give Myles the 4th Trey 3rd Donnie champ

52 maybe 4th but I doubt he beats burns, nugent multiple times Hoover or lake station.

126 beathone maybe doesn't beat dlp Rodriguez or maybe Luna Hernandez. This is top team in the state getting 5 out of a average regional. That honest show me where I'm wrong. I didn't want to make this a bashing of Harrison but show me 1 Person out side of logansport who thinks they are a top 20 program

Trey Donnie Myles bethone are solid wrestlers no doubt all 4 spent time in the rankings.

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Harrison will get 11 to E.C. Semi-state, 7  to ticket round, 3 to state, and 2 state placers........I would think that would be a solid Team State lineup....if I'm wrong let me know!!

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