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maligned

3A Team State Qualifying: thru State

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Whatbim saying is that tougher teams in the regional have a better chance to eliminate tougher teams. It not sure hobart belongs there either. This is just a flaw in the system I'm familiar with. I would say if hobart were put in to the "3" regional they would bring a lot more wrestlers. I think a better idea of who has a tougher sectional should be semi state first round wins. There were also 5th placer at calumet who had multiple wins over other ssq. If Harrison gets in good for them. I think there is q handful of wrestlers who it will benefit.

Hobart might have got a couple guys through at Logansport.   But looking from the team state scoring, they would have had to place in the  top  3   to score the semi-state points.  That's the handicap.   Wouldn't say there's any bias toward the Calumuet Regional from Mike,  but lets put in on paper.     Hobart got  7 of there wrestlers through.   So which of the remaining 7 Hobart wrestlers would of hypotheticaly  improved their position by placing in the top 3 at Logansport?  

 

 

113 lbs was 10-9   Highly unlikely that he beats Burge from Mccutcheon and really don't see him beating Patrick from Jeff-  So no points here.

126 lbs was 21-8 Gomez might have had a shot at 3rd but long shot.   He would of had to beat Dominguez from Logansport,  but I doubt it.  I don't think he beats Casillas who didn't place. - No points here

 

132 lbs 4-7   I don't see him beating Bernhardt from Cass or even placing fourth by beating Salas. 

 

182 lbs- Vode 13-10   I could see him getting 4th, but I don't see him beating Powell.  No improvement

195 lbs   Recio-  8-5  No way he beats Day from Winamac.  Maybe  a long shot at 4th

220 lbs   wrestling at 6-8.    Lets be real.  He wouldn't get Foster for 3rd or Provancal for 4th.

Hwy - Forfeit

 

Also based on Semi-State,  Cardwell at 106 got beat out by the top 3 at Logansport.   Lets give him 4th so he wouldn't have scored any semi-state points.

Hobart would probably  have gotten 6 placers scoring at Logansport and scored less points than Calumet.   Maybe the system is not flawed.

 

Your're the rankings guy, so where is my logic wrong.  Let me know.   Like Adrian said,  Calumet is strong on the top but its not that deep.

Edited by Wrestling Scholar

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Maligned,

 

Here's at least something to consider... if we are looking at how difficult it is for the 5th best kid to get out of sectional or regional, why are we averaging the genius scores from EVERY team in the sectional or regional? Play along for a minute... let's say the Calumet Regional had Brownsburg, Portage, EMD, and Merrillville. It also had 12 Hammond Bishop Noll and Whiting lookalikes. The average would be dragged way down, but the overall quality of this regional's advancing wrestlers would be off the charts and it would be extremely difficult to crack the top 4 for any of the lower level team's wrestlers. Therefore, wouldn't it be better to average the top 4 teams genius scores to determine how difficult a regional is, since those are the teams getting the lions share of the semi state qualifiers? Would like to hear your thoughts on this from a mathematical perspective. I may rock a mullet, but I'm smarter than I look.

That's not how Categories are calculated. Look at the example I gave back about 30 comments on this thread to see how we're only using genius to predict how many qualifiers each team would get in an average difficulty tournament.

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That's not how Categories are calculated. Look at the example I gave back about 30 comments on this thread to see how we're only using genius to predict how many qualifiers each team would get in an average difficulty tournament.

That's fine but the same logic holds.. why average ALL of the regional teams "predicted qualifiers in an average tournament"? Why not only take into account the top 4 or top 6 teams since they get the majority of the SSQ?

Edited by IndianaMudflap

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That's fine but the same logic holds.. why average ALL of the regional teams "predicted qualifiers in an average tournament"? Why not only take into account the top 4 or top 6 teams since they get the majority of the SSQ?

Every team has the possibility of scoring so you cant discount them.  Some of the sectionals  have 8 or 9 teams with  relatively high Genius ratings.  They should  get credit for that.

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That's fine but the same logic holds.. why average ALL of the regional teams "predicted qualifiers in an average tournament"? Why not only take into account the top 4 or top 6 teams since they get the majority of the SSQ?

If we look at all teams we know, for example, that a given regional has 50 or 55 regional-level kids. If we only look at a certain number of teams or only the best couple from each weight class, we're making our guess far more erratic since there are 15 other teams competing that all have at least a minimal impact on that site's crowdedness. As Coach Pendoski said, they've got a whole run down of good teams--not just 2or 4. We can't knowingly leave some information out just because it might make us use the calculator a few less clicks.

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Hobart might have got a couple guys through at Logansport. But looking from the team state scoring, they would have had to place in the top 3 to score the semi-state points. That's the handicap. Wouldn't say there's any bias toward the Calumuet Regional from Mike, but lets put in on paper. Hobart got 7 of there wrestlers through. So which of the remaining 7 Hobart wrestlers would of hypotheticaly improved their position by placing in the top 3 at Logansport?

 

 

113 lbs was 10-9 Highly unlikely that he beats Burge from Mccutcheon and really don't see him beating Patrick from Jeff- So no points here.

126 lbs was 21-8 Gomez might have had a shot at 3rd but long shot. He would of had to beat Dominguez from Logansport, but I doubt it. I don't think he beats Casillas who didn't place. - No points here

 

132 lbs 4-7 I don't see him beating Bernhardt from Cass or even placing fourth by beating Salas.

 

182 lbs- Vode 13-10 I could see him getting 4th, but I don't see him beating Powell. No improvement

195 lbs Recio- 8-5 No way he beats Day from Winamac. Maybe a long shot at 4th

220 lbs 6-8 lets be real. He wouldn't get Foster for 3rd or Provancal for 4th.

Hwy - Forfeit

 

Also based on Semi-State, Cardwell at 106 got beat out by the top 3 at Logansport. Lets give him 4th so he wouldn't have scored any semi-state points.

Hobart would probably have gotten 6 placers scoring at Logansport and scored less points than Calumet. Maybe the system is not flawed.

 

Your're the rankings guy, so where is my logic wrong. Let me know. Like Adrian said, Calumet is strong on the top but its not that deep.

I think your under selling hobart at these weights and over selling logansport at those same weights. Burge wrestled 120 at the harvest and was 1-2 losing by tech fall to fair and pinned by a Griffith kid who didn't make it to sectionals. 106 doesn't win logansport

113 either but decent

120 champ medalist

126 finalist

132 lost their varsity kid who was ssq but back I think gets out

138 champ

145 champ

152 runner up return SQ really a toss up. Plus their back up beat the calumet regional champ

160 champ

170 champ

182 would quillfy lost to a solid habit kid who has been at ss twice now.

195-285 probably doesn't get out. IMO

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Every team has the possibility of scoring so you cant discount them.  Some of the sectionals  have 8 or 9 teams with  relatively high Genius ratings.  They should  get credit for that.

I disagree. Whether a kid is 5th best or 9th best, doesn't really matter. He doesn't qualify for the next level in either example. I'd argue it's harder for an individual to advance in a regional with 4 top 5 teams in it than one with 9 above average teams in it but no top 25 teams.

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I disagree. Whether a kid is 5th best or 9th best, doesn't really matter. He doesn't qualify for the next level in either example. I'd argue it's harder for an individual to advance in a regional with 4 top 5 teams in it than one with 9 above average teams in it but no top 25 teams.

That last sentence is potentially true, but we don't know and we can't implement effective Categories until we research all the historical scenarios and calculate them out instead of making assumptions. And that's what we've done. Edited by maligned

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If we look at all teams we know, for example, that a given regional has 50 or 55 regional-level kids. If we only look at a certain number of teams or only the best couple from each weight class, we're making our guess far more erratic since there are 15 other teams competing that all have at least a minimal impact on that site's crowdedness. As Coach Pendoski said, they've got a whole run down of good teams--not just 2or 4. We can't knowingly leave some information out just because it might make us use the calculator a few less clicks.

I don't think we are leaving any valuable data out is my point. It's possible that we could have "addition by subtraction" in terms of less data being more predictive in this case.. I'm arguing that the data you are valuing, namely the bottom 10 teams in a regional is irrelevant. The difficulty of the path to semi state is a function of how good the top 4 or 6 teams are, since they are getting almost all of the SSQ.

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I think your under selling hobart at these weights and over selling logansport at those same weights. Burge wrestled 120 at the harvest and was 1-2 losing by tech fall to fair and pinned by a Griffith kid who didn't make it to sectionals. 106 doesn't win logansport

113 either but decent

120 champ medalist

126 finalist

132 lost their varsity kid who was ssq but back I think gets out

138 champ

145 champ

152 runner up return SQ really a toss up. Plus their back up beat the calumet regional champ

160 champ

170 champ

182 would quillfy lost to a solid habit kid who has been at ss twice now.

195-285 probably doesn't get out. IMO

Do we not see the comedy of us comparing a dual with a entire regional? Level 3 and level 4 the 3rd best team from calumet might beat the logansport regional in a dual. How do we decide levels based on the lowest level teams from the regionals who have little to no impact on who advanced to semi state.

 

Your're the rankings guy, so where is my logic wrong. Let me know. Like Adrian said, Calumet is strong on the top but its not that deep.

And logansport is a deep regional. Interesting

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I don't think we are leaving any valuable data out is my point. It's possible that we could have "addition by subtraction" in terms of less data being more predictive in this case.. I'm arguing that the data you are valuing, namely the bottom 10 teams in a regional is irrelevant. The difficulty of the path to semi state is a function of how good the top 4 or 6 teams are, since they are getting almost all of the SSQ.

Almost all. Exactly. But every site is different so there's no fair way to just not consider some teams. Again, we have all the historical info...why are we wrong in using it and remaining as accurate as we've been?

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Westfield finished 6th in our Regional and they are ranked #24 on the genius rating.

 

I don't even pretend to know the math on the qualifying point system. I also think that the multiplier was too rewarding to our sectional/regional path.

 

....but I also know that it is probably impossible to have a scoring system implied across the state that could be 'the best way'. We have to have a system, this system is researched and thought through. There will always be 'outlier' situation that a scoring system will miss.

 

Genius ratings of teams in our sectional.:

8 Carmel

16 Zionsville

24 Westfield

30 Hamilton Southeastern

54 Lebanon

 

There was a wrestler that placed at Al Smith and he didn't get our of the sectional (and in my opinion, he wrestled well to get 5th!)

 

And that sectional feeds into the regional with:

17 North Montgomery

 

There's still only 56 semi state qualifiers that come from this regional. The points get split between these teams. I also wonder what would happen if you took the average genius rating of the top 6 teams in a regional to help

Yea very tough and yet none of these teams will be represented in the 3a and new castle has the highest medalist count. Making it tougher for you guys to push wrestlers through.

Almost all. Exactly. But every site is different so there's no fair way to just not consider some teams. Again, we have all the historical info...why are we wrong in using it and remaining as accurate as we've been?

Define accurate.

What were the placements at state for the 12 teams who were at ihswca and how many 3a teams placed ahead of them?

Edited by ontherise219

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Almost all. Exactly. But every site is different so there's no fair way to just not consider some teams. Again, we have all the historical info...why are we wrong in using it and remaining as accurate as we've been?

The problem is that by doing a simple average, you're weighting the bottom 10 teams equally with the top 6. Find out what % of SSQ the top 6 teams get and weight their scores to that percentages. The bottom teams make no difference whether they're the worst team in the state or an average team, the quality of the top 6 absolutely matter.

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Do we not see the comedy of us comparing a dual with a entire regional? Level 3 and level 4 the 3rd best team from calumet might beat the logansport regional in a dual. How do we decide levels based on the lowest level teams from the regionals who have little to no impact on who advanced to semi state.

And logansport is a deep regional. Interesting

`Interesting.   According to Maigned's Genius ratings,  Harrison beats Hobart by 10 points.  But you think Hobart beats the whole Regional in a dual.    In not saying that you have any bias towards the Calumet Regional,  but you're analysis is interesting.   4-7 backup dominate.  You're the rankings guy and you know.

Edited by Wrestling Scholar

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Yea very tough and yet none of these teams will be represented in the 3a and new castle has the highest medalist count. Making it tougher for you guys to push wrestlers through.

Define accurate.

Every year-end top 5 team and at least 8 of the year end top 10 from all classes have been in the event with the category method of controlling for path difficulty. Overall, including the multiplier years, at least 7 of the top 10 every time and 72 of 75 year-end top 5's.

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Common opponents Kankakee valley 47-28 win for hobart. Harrison 42-27 with KV giving forfeits in winnable matches at 170,113 giving a swing. So in my rankings opinion yes hobart wins that dual.

When KV was at full strength it 32-21 as go back over the results.

Edited by ontherise219

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The problem is that by doing a simple average, you're weighting the bottom 10 teams equally with the top 6. Find out what % of SSQ the top 6 teams get and weight their scores to that percentages. The bottom teams make no difference whether they're the worst team in the state or an average team, the quality of the top 6 absolutely matter.

There's no average used in any way. Please look again at my earlier post. Each team's expected qualifiers are added together to give a depth total. For example, the 12 expected from Portage and 9.5 from Merrillville and 0.1 from the lowest teams are simply totaled, thus giving full powerful weight to the big teams. We then divide that total expected qualifiers number by 14 weight classes to give a per-weight-class total and you've got your category.

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But lower level teams in these regionals have little to no impact on the totals correct? But have a major impact on your regional grade

Every team's expected qualifiers are added in. So if a team has virtually no expected qualifiers, they have virtually no impact. Not sure if that's what you're suggesting.

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Hobart might have got a couple guys through at Logansport.   But looking from the team state scoring, they would have had to place in the  top  3   to score the semi-state points.  That's the handicap.   Wouldn't say there's any bias toward the Calumuet Regional from Mike,  but lets put in on paper.     Hobart got  7 of there wrestlers through.   So which of the remaining 7 Hobart wrestlers would of hypotheticaly  improved their position by placing in the top 3 at Logansport?  

 

 

113 lbs was 10-9   Highly unlikely that he beats Burge from Mccutcheon and really don't see him beating Patrick from Jeff-  So no points here.

126 lbs was 21-8 Gomez might have had a shot at 3rd but long shot.   He would of had to beat Dominguez from Logansport,  but I doubt it.  I don't think he beats Casillas who didn't place. - No points here

 

132 lbs 4-7   I don't see him beating Bernhardt from Cass or even placing fourth by beating Salas. 

 

182 lbs- Vode 13-10   I could see him getting 4th, but I don't see him beating Powell.  No improvement

195 lbs   Recio-  8-5  No way he beats Day from Winamac.  Maybe  a long shot at 4th

220 lbs   wrestling at 6-8.    Lets be real.  He wouldn't get Foster for 3rd or Provancal for 4th.

Hwy - Forfeit

 

Also based on Semi-State,  Cardwell at 106 got beat out by the top 3 at Logansport.   Lets give him 4th so he wouldn't have scored any semi-state points.

Hobart would probably  have gotten 6 placers scoring at Logansport and scored less points than Calumet.   Maybe the system is not flawed.

 

Your're the rankings guy, so where is my logic wrong.  Let me know.   Like Adrian said,  Calumet is strong on the top but its not that deep.

I really think you're underestimating these kids by their record. Gomez had 8 losses but was a SSQ last year. He lost to Rodriguez from morton (stateQ) to go to semi-state. he lost to him 2x in the year, lost to luna 2x, Matt lee EMD, Jeffersonville kid, Lucas finger, and the Castle Kid. He had some competition. Vode all of his losses going to SSQ and StateQ....ANYways.... You are basing your opinion off records, Most of these kids were back ups or pulled off the football field. We wrestle a tougher schedule than you think. 

Harvest

Al smith

Castle super dual (Castle, EMD, Jeffersonville, BloomingtonSouth, Jasper)

Calumet sectional

 

I would take anyone from the Logansport Regional, Put them in our schedule and I bet they have more than 5 losses.

 

Also, I am not saying that we deserve to be there either, I am saying coming from a tougher route really screws your chances. Some teams have it made...

Edited by brickfor6

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`Interesting.   According to Maigned's Genius ratings,  Harrison beats Hobart by 10 points.  But you think Hobart beats the whole Regional in a dual.    In not saying that you have any bias towards the Calumet Regional,  but you're analysis is interesting.   4-7 backup dominate.  You're the rankings guy and you know.

106: Cardwell over Sam Hein (HARR) (HOB PINNED KV :32)

113: Josh Wade (HARR) over Schammert 

120: Triana over Trey McCartney (HARR) (HOB MAJ KV) 

126: Gomez over Cody Betourne (HARR) (HOB PINNED KV)

132: James Strother (HARR) over Lovell 

138: Black overBrock Merkel (HARR) (OUR BACK UP GOT THE FALL VS KV)

145: Colza over Caleb White (HARR) (HOB PINNED KV)

152: Burns over Owen Conklin (HARR) (HOB TF KV) 

160: Guarnero over Seth Younker (HARR) (HOB PINNED KV)

170: Fattore over Myles Krintz (HARR) (HOB TF KV)

182: Ethan Powell (HARR) over Vode (idk toss up)

195: Will Crider (HARR) over Recio 

220: Seth Chrisman (HARR) over Salazar 

285: Donald Crider (HARR) over Moore

 

kv line up vs kv line up

 

It would be one to see, Hobart wins 8 out of 14 just based off common opponent results. Not to mention that our 138-170 like to TF AND PIN KIDS.

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Brick: Good projections, although 26 and 52 may be tossups. Regardless, bonus points would likely determine the outcome either way. Harrison has some pinners too.

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