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maligned

3A Team State Qualifying: thru State

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You are probably right if we can't discuss we should just quit. who wants to vote on state rankings next year pick'ems winners only

Sometimes just trying to read your math gives me a headache, so I can only imagine how much work goes into all of it....

 

One question... what is considered an down the middle average regional?

Sounds like calumet Edited by ontherise219

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Ontherise, What do you think about Lafayette Jeff is a sectonal with a 4 rating and the calumet sectional is also gets a 4 rating. Overall depth is similar, but the Jeff sectional hasn't been able to break through the barrier and get to state. Also the Logansport regional already gets handicapped already. You got to get top 3 in Logansport to get points where Calumet gets points for top 4 places.

 

Also, you score points in sectional, regional and state. If a Regional has top guys, they got the still get the top points down the road when they earn them.

I think it's a great opportunity for Harrison. Especially crider Trey and Myles. I honestly wish they wrestled more matches in the region. It would be nice to see them at the harvest classic or something else

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I think if river forest and up were coming out of logansport their ssq count would be higher. I think having merrillville/portage in your regional eliminate a lot of wrestlers. Wrestling scholar I think Harrison has done a nice job. But losing boiler elite hurts the area

Also Delphi and mccutcheon being down hurts

If Harrison came out of calumet they would have less SSQ then hobart in my opinion.

Picking the top 5 team isn't very tough let's predict now and i bet half of the board gets it. The top 5 Indy the problem it should be about getting the top teams there.

Hobart had  some big hitters, but I think Harrison would have similar amount of qualifiers if out of Calumet.   Harrison would of lost 2 or 3  qualifers  in Calumet, but keep in mind for team state,  Harrison lost semi-state points as they had 2 4th place finishers.   Hobart got 7 to SS.    Calumet Regional is good because of Merrillville and Portage,  but it drops off significantly after that.   Compare the teams after the big two.  Look at Maligned's post.

 

If looking at duals, Harrison had a more balanced dual team  than Hobart which is reflected in the genius rating.   If its an argument, Harrison has 13 starters back, and they had there best Varsity B team they've had.  They'll be legit next year. 

 

I got mixed feelings on Boiler Elite.   It wasn't like they were churning out champions.    And the problem with Boiler Elite was it wasn't like the academies.   It was a couple of volunteer coaches making some extra cash, and they weren't vested in the wrestlers.   My kid went through it and the coaches didn't go watch them at tournaments or even coerce kids to go to tournaments.   They didn't have the follow up from week to week to make sure each kid was progressing, and the coaches were interested in high level college wrestling, not the mundane basics of teaching a new 11 year old how to wrestle.      Interesting thing now is that there are now 4 clubs in Tippy county at each of the major high schools.  Between the 4 clubs,  easily over 100 kids participating in wrestling  and going to tournaments.   Boiler Elite maybe had 20 to 25 at most.   

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I think it's a great opportunity for Harrison. Especially crider Trey and Myles. I honestly wish they wrestled more matches in the region. It would be nice to see them at the harvest classic or something else

It would be nice, maybe they could hitch a ride with McCutchen to the harvest. 

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I think it's a great opportunity for Harrison. Especially crider Trey and Myles. I honestly wish they wrestled more matches in the region. It would be nice to see them at the harvest classic or something else

 

I wish they did wrestle some of the Region schools more.

Edited by Wrestling Scholar

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What's keeping them from testing themselves against the Region schools? I can guess from looking at the gaudy records of their wrestlers, AND their inflated Dual record... it's because their coach doesn't want the better competition. What else could it be? Teams can schedule tougher in any sport, if they want to.

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Calumet regional had 18 state qualifiers. One champion, two 2nds, two 3rds, three 4ths, two 5ths, two 6ths.

 

 

Portage-5 placers 3 qualifiers

Hobart- 2 placers 1 champ 1qualifier

Merrillville- 2 placer 1 qualifier

Grifftith- 1 placer

Munster- 1 placer

Morton- 1 qualifier

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Jay County had 17 qualifiers, three champs, two runners up and five more placers and was categorized the 3rd strongest regional in Fort Wayne (only ahead of the worst regional in the state) and in the bottom five regionals in the state and is a category 3.    

 

You guys are missing the point on depth, which is what the categories measure.

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Harrison would be a great addition to the Harvest Classic. I know the goal has always been to get the best teams there and they've eliminated a few teams that weren't competitive over the past few years. There are a few teams that as an outsider, I'd easily drop to add Harrison.  Not sure how it works, but if the coach wanted in, a phone call or email to Coach Morgan would be a good start. 

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Don't mean any disrespect. Only stating the obvious. Harrison has had a kid with the most wins in the State, each of the last two years. Good, talented kids. Any coach who upgrades his schedule, knows they're getting better prep for February, but might take some losses in the process. It's a trade off. If Harrison gets in Harvest and team state, good chance they will suffer more losses than they normally do.

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You are probably right if we can't discuss we should just quit. who wants to vote on state rankings next year pick'ems winners only

Ha...forgot to turn on my lighthearted economist font. "Group-think" really is a thing. There's a lot of evidence that a group of individuals with significant knowledge of a topic can aggregate their opinions about future events and add significant predictive value to real-life projections. A good example from sports is pre-season rankings, which in college football and basketball can often be BETTER predictors of year-end bowls and tournament games than year-end rankings because the variety of opinions that compiled them hones in on a better assessment of teams' true long-term talent than the few games of a regular season that pigeon-hole end-of-season rankings thinking.

Your idea that we should just poll people on here and they can probably come up with the top 5 just as easily as a qualification process probably isn't far off if there were a way to get genuinely informed voters representing each regional to study the state series results in-depth and compile a thoughtful ranking of who they think will be the best teams next year. The likelihood that it would be as successfully predictive as things have gone is small, but it wouldn't be an insane way to do things by any means.

Don't worry. I always enjoy these discussions and it's because of input from coaches and fans that we changed significant things every year the first 4 years. :)

Edited by maligned

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Could depth be better calculated by the number of ticket rounders each regional had?

The average regional gets two ticket rounders. How does knowing how many of that type of wrestler from an average of 19 feeder teams per weight class there is at a regional tell us how easy it is to place in the top 4 the week before and advance to semi-state?

Edited by maligned

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The average regional gets two ticket rounders. How does knowing how many of that type of wrestler from an average of 19 feeder teams per weight class there is at a regional tell us how easy it is to place in the top 4 the week before and advance to semi-state?

Because the higher the average....the tougher the regional is to place top 4.

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Because the higher the average....the tougher the regional is to place top 4.

Possibly, but that's using one small data point with broad predictive variance when we have the full-season quality of all of those teams and we can look at thousands of teams' seasons over the past 5 years and see how many regional or semi-state qualifiers they all had coming from the various paths. Then we can use that information to give a much sturdier estimate of how many semi-state quality or regional-quality kids there are funneling into each site.

Calumet and Jay County are both great examples of very top-heavy regionals that are not overly crowded. Their ticket-round and state qualifier totals look nice, but they all come from a couple schools and their regional 4th placers have records and strengths-of-schedule comparable to the 5th and 6th best kids from the Mooresville and Zionsville sectionals. Depth has to be measured from the base, not the top, when we're deciding if a 4th or 5th placer would generally make it through an average-quality tournament.

Edited by maligned

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Whatbim saying is that tougher teams in the regional have a better chance to eliminate tougher teams. It not sure hobart belongs there either. This is just a flaw in the system I'm familiar with. I would say if hobart were put in to the "3" regional they would bring a lot more wrestlers. I think a better idea of who has a tougher sectional should be semi state first round wins. There were also 5th placer at calumet who had multiple wins over other ssq. If Harrison gets in good for them. I think there is q handful of wrestlers who it will benefit.

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Maligned,

 

Here's at least something to consider... if we are looking at how difficult it is for the 5th best kid to get out of sectional or regional, why are we averaging the genius scores from EVERY team in the sectional or regional? Play along for a minute... let's say the Calumet Regional had Brownsburg, Portage, EMD, and Merrillville. It also had 12 Hammond Bishop Noll and Whiting lookalikes. The average would be dragged way down, but the overall quality of this regional's advancing wrestlers would be off the charts and it would be extremely difficult to crack the top 4 for any of the lower level team's wrestlers. Therefore, wouldn't it be better to average the top 4 teams genius scores to determine how difficult a regional is, since those are the teams getting the lions share of the semi state qualifiers? Would like to hear your thoughts on this from a mathematical perspective. I may rock a mullet, but I'm smarter than I look.

Edited by IndianaMudflap

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Take the top 2 teams out of any regional and how good would any be? Take Avon and bburg out of mooresville is it still a 5?

Westfield finished 6th in our Regional and they are ranked #24 on the genius rating.  

 

I don't even pretend to know the math on the qualifying point system.  I also think that the multiplier was too rewarding to our sectional/regional path.

 

....but I also know that it is probably impossible to have a scoring system implied across the state that could be 'the best way'.  We have to have a system, this system is researched and thought through.   There will always be 'outlier' situation that a scoring system will miss.

 

Genius ratings of teams in our sectional.:

8 Carmel

16 Zionsville

24 Westfield

30 Hamilton Southeastern

54 Lebanon

 

There was a wrestler that placed at Al Smith and he didn't get our of the sectional (and in my opinion, he wrestled well to get 5th!)

 

And that sectional feeds into the regional with:

17 North Montgomery

 

There's still only 56 semi state qualifiers that come from this regional.  The points get split between these teams.  I also wonder what would happen if you took the average genius rating of the top 6 teams in a regional to help 

Edited by Ed Pendoski

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