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maligned

3A Team State Qualifying: thru State

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So Avon and calumet sectional/regional get higher points based on having 2 top 10 teams? Is the formula adjusted every year?

Here is the explanation for how Categories work: http://indianamat.com/index.php/topic/51529-team-state-qualification-faqs-topic-3-controlling-for-sectional-and-regional-difficulty/?fromsearch=1

 

Categories are recalculated every year and included in the qualification procedures doc I linked above in response to Brick6. But no, scores aren't adjusted up or down; there are just sometimes more or less than 4 regional or semi-state scoring positions available at each tournament site depending on its depth. The FAQ link explains it step by step.

Edited by maligned

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#movethecounty

Hehe...... the rumor is that we will not be going to Evansville any longer. The word is that they are moving semi-state North. While we will not be going to New Castle, but we will be meeting in the middle somewhere. So... I guess we are all moving.

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Hehe...... the rumor is that we will not be going to Evansville any longer. The word is that they are moving semi-state North. While we will not be going to New Castle, but we will be meeting in the middle somewhere. So... I guess we are all moving.

 

Not next year according to MarioK.

 

However I know for us personally I would be all for that.

 

Evansville does do a WONDERFUL JOB with it and the venue is second to none but for me personally the drive and MS State the next day means im basically out of commission Monday and Tuesday

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im basically out of commission Monday and Tuesday

.

Aren't you always basically out of commission on Monday and Tuesday's ?

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So Avon and calumet sectional/regional get higher points based on having 2 top 10 teams? Is the formula adjusted every year?

The Calumet Sectional and regional both got rated a 4 this year.   That means this more of a median sectional and regional.

 

Avon was rated a 5 sectional and the Moorseville Regional was a 6.

 

The difference is the Mooresvile regional 5th and 6th place finishers get semi-state qualifying points, where in  the Calumet regional only the top 4 get semi-state points.  

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I dont like your tone

.

oh crap......like UncleJimmy says..........I guess I forgot to use my sarcasm font

 

Side note I got the pleasure of meeting UncleJimmy at state and we had a great talk and now are allies against everyone not in #TheCounty !!!!

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The Calumet Sectional and regional both got rated a 4 this year.   That means this more of a median sectional and regional.

 

Avon was rated a 5 sectional and the Moorseville Regional was a 6.

 

The difference is the Mooresvile regional 5th and 6th place finishers get semi-state qualifying points, where in  the Calumet regional only the top 4 get semi-state points.  

Why do they get semi-state qualifying points if they don't qualify for semi-state?? 

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Why do they get semi-state qualifying points if they don't qualify for semi-state?? 

Not to step on Maligned's toes here, but Ill try to explain.    Based on the Genius ratings,  the teams in the Mooresville have overall higher genius ratings.  Maligned has  historical data that demonstrates a history the number of semi-state qualifiers from a team based on its genius rating.      So to summarize, based on the quality of teams, Maligned is saying that in the Mooresville regional of a 6 rating, that the 2 guys that got 5th or 6th, they would have made the top 4 in an average regional.

 

This will make you feel better.  The Logansport Regional is a 3.   So the guys that got 4th place in Logansport,  they didn't get Semi-State points even though the qualified for Semi-State.   Logansport got a 3 because the overall depth was lower. Its not the simplest method, but its pretty statiscally fair.  Give a good read to the qualifying info, it starts to make sense after a while.

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Logansport 1 medal 0 semi finalist

Calumet 12 medals 9 semi finals

Mooresville 19 medals 11 semi finalist

So again how is logansport a 3 and calumet a 4?

Because high-end talent has little relationship with sectional or regional crowdedness--which is what the Categories measure.

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Calumet represented 9/12 semi/medalist of Ec 15/31

Mooresville 11/19 16/31

Also I don't think any of these teams had to deal with another regional with depth of a CP (4/9)

And 6 of the 14 logansport champs lost first round of semi state compared to 1/14 from calumet. Sounds like it isn't a depth issue either

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Calumet represented 9/12 semi/medalist of Ec 15/31

Mooresville 11/19 16/31

Also I don't think any of these teams had to deal with another regional with depth of a CP (4/9)

And 6 of the 14 logansport champs lost first round of semi state compared to 1/14 from calumet. Sounds like it isn't a depth issue either

 

I remember a very well-reasoned, statistics-based analysis of the process that was written on this message board a couple years ago when a very solid Portage team was left out of consideration due to these multiplier/category issues. I don't know all of the specifics, but I believe some changes have been made every year to try to make this a fair process and predictor of dual team success, hopefully to remedy some of the early kinks that were identified with the multipliers. I appreciate what maligned and the selection committee do, but I take most issue with the fact that there is not one member of the IHSWCA State Duals selection committee who is from within 2 hours of Northwest Indiana. And without representation, I feel that NWI is judged more on the high percentage of early forfeits in sectionals, from the Gary/EC and rural Lake, Porter and LaPorte County teams, than the high end quality and depth that are coming into and out of Calumet/CP regionals and EC semi-state. I would like to better understand how the selection committee was comprised and why most areas of the state are represented on it, but not NWI. Specifically, I could be wrong, but I don't even think that any of the members are EC semi-state attendees. That is troubling to me, and I think it plays a part in categories potentially being lower than they should be for NWI.

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I remember a very well-reasoned, statistics-based analysis of the process that was written on this message board a couple years ago when a very solid Portage team was left out of consideration due to these multiplier/category issues. I don't know all of the specifics, but I believe some changes have been made every year to try to make this a fair process and predictor of dual team success, hopefully to remedy some of the early kinks that were identified with the multipliers. I appreciate what maligned and the selection committee do, but I take most issue with the fact that there is not one member of the IHSWCA State Duals selection committee who is from within 2 hours of Northwest Indiana. And without representation, I feel that NWI is judged more on the high percentage of early forfeits in sectionals, from the Gary/EC and rural Lake, Porter and LaPorte County teams, than the high end quality and depth that are coming into and out of Calumet/CP regionals and EC semi-state. I would like to better understand how the selection committee was comprised and why most areas of the state are represented on it, but not NWI. Specifically, I could be wrong, but I don't even think that any of the members are EC semi-state attendees. That is troubling to me, and I think it plays a part in categories potentially being lower than they should be for NWI.

 

I've had as many issues with the system as anyone, including the committee and their selections, but saying that the composition of the committee plays a part in the categories being lower for Northwest Indiana just shows a lack of understanding of the system and how the categories are developed.  

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Mike, you're still focused on top-level results--not bottom-end crowdedness. The number of state qualifiers from a regional does not tell us how good the 4th, 5th, and 6th guys at a regional are. It only tells us how good the top 1 or 2 are.

 

Here is the breakdown of expected semi-state qualifiers for Calumet and Logansport by team, based on their full-season quality from 2016-17. Which team's projected semi-state qualifier estimate is wrong, in terms of how many they would have in a down-the-middle, average regional?

 

Genius Proj SS Qual   

103.9   11.8     Portage

88.3     9.4       Merrillville

65.4     5.9       Hobart

57.1     4.9       Lake Central

44.6     3.5       Hammond Gavit

38.6     2.9       Highland

35.8     2.7       Griffith

35.5     2.6       Calumet

27.7     2.0       Hammond Morton

23.5     1.7       Munster

21.9     1.6       Hammond

21.4     1.6       Lake Station Edison

21.0     1.6       River Forest

1.0       0.6       Hammond Clark

-9.6      0.3       Gary West Side

-12.9    0.3       Whiting

-16.1    0.2       East Chicago Central

-22.2    0.1       Hammond Bishop Noll

total    53.7    

per wt   3.8  (rounded to Category 4)

                       

Genius Proj SS Qual   

79.9     8.0       Harrison (WL)

64.1     5.7       Lafayette Jefferson

50.8     4.1       Cass

50.2     4.1       West Lafayette

39.9     3.0       McCutcheon

36.6     2.7       Logansport

23.3     1.7       North White

22.3     1.7       Rensselaer Central

20.2     1.5       West Central

18.3     1.4       Delphi

18.3     1.4       Winamac

16.5     1.3       Benton Central

14.7     1.2       North Newton

13.5     1.2       Twin Lakes

13.0     1.1       Rossville

8.5       0.9       Lafayette Central Catholic

1.3       0.6       Frontier

-13.0    0.3       South Newton

-21.2    0.2       Faith Christian

-27.8    0.1       Tri County

-28.6    0.1       Carroll (Flora)

-31.5    0.1       Pioneer

total    42.5    

per wt   3.0   (rounded to Category 3)

Edited by maligned

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Logansport 1 medal 0 semi finalist

Calumet 12 medals 9 semi finals

Mooresville 19 medals 11 semi finalist

So again how is logansport a 3 and calumet a 4?

Ontherise,   What do you think about Lafayette Jeff is a sectonal with a 4 rating and  the calumet sectional is also gets a 4 rating.    Overall depth is similar, but the Jeff sectional hasn't been able to break through the barrier and get to state.  Also the Logansport regional already gets handicapped already.  You got to get top 3 in Logansport to get points where Calumet gets points for top 4 places.    

 

Also, you score points in sectional, regional and state.    If a Regional has top guys, they got the still get the top points down the road when they earn them.

Edited by Wrestling Scholar

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I remember a very well-reasoned, statistics-based analysis of the process that was written on this message board a couple years ago when a very solid Portage team was left out of consideration due to these multiplier/category issues. I don't know all of the specifics, but I believe some changes have been made every year to try to make this a fair process and predictor of dual team success, hopefully to remedy some of the early kinks that were identified with the multipliers. I appreciate what maligned and the selection committee do, but I take most issue with the fact that there is not one member of the IHSWCA State Duals selection committee who is from within 2 hours of Northwest Indiana. And without representation, I feel that NWI is judged more on the high percentage of early forfeits in sectionals, from the Gary/EC and rural Lake, Porter and LaPorte County teams, than the high end quality and depth that are coming into and out of Calumet/CP regionals and EC semi-state. I would like to better understand how the selection committee was comprised and why most areas of the state are represented on it, but not NWI. Specifically, I could be wrong, but I don't even think that any of the members are EC semi-state attendees. That is troubling to me, and I think it plays a part in categories potentially being lower than they should be for NWI.

It's strictly data--based solely on the scores of all the dual meets and tournaments throughout the state. I orchestrate the categories and I wrestled and officiated more matches involving Merrillville/E Chicago semi-state teams than any other in my "careers" in both endeavors. It's strictly data that determines the categories.

 

In terms of the Portage issue a few years ago: that was one of 3 schools from our first three years of the event that didn't get in and proved themselves to be a top 5 team the following season. They only returned 8 starters and went from being just inside the top 20 one year to top 5 the next. That's highly unusual.  With that said...since we moved away from the "multiplier" to the current Category system, it's been much smoother to explain answers to questions and it's been a slight upgrade in accuracy (and Portage would have gotten in that infamous year had we been using what we use now).

 

I've said this on a number of threads, but we're 30 for 30 in getting the following season's year-end top 5 from all 3 classes into the event with the Category system. We've also had at least 8 of the following season's year-end top 10 in each case. Until we start to fall off of this type of accuracy, it's hard to want to change much. I'd challenge any group of rankers to peruse season results a while and come up with that sort of one-year-in-advance success.

Edited by maligned

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I think if river forest and up were coming out of logansport their ssq count would be higher. I think having merrillville/portage in your regional eliminate a lot of wrestlers. Wrestling scholar I think Harrison has done a nice job. But losing boiler elite hurts the area

Also Delphi and mccutcheon being down hurts

If Harrison came out of calumet they would have less SSQ then hobart in my opinion.

Picking the top 5 team isn't very tough let's predict now and i bet half of the board gets it. The top 5 Indy the problem it should be about getting the top teams there.

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It's strictly data--based solely on the scores of all the dual meets and tournaments throughout the state. I orchestrate the categories and I wrestled and officiated more matches involving Merrillville/E Chicago semi-state teams than any other in my "careers" in both endeavors. It's strictly data that determines the categories.

 

In terms of the Portage issue a few years ago: that was one of 3 schools from our first three years of the event that didn't get in and proved themselves to be a top 5 team the following season. They only returned 8 starters and went from being just inside the top 20 one year to top 5 the next. That's highly unusual. With that said...since we moved away from the "multiplier" to the current Category system, it's been much smoother to explain answers to questions and it's been a slight upgrade in accuracy (and Portage would have gotten in that infamous year had we been using what we use now).

 

I've said this on a number of threads, but we're 30 for 30 in getting the following season's year-end top 5 from all 3 classes into the event with the Category system. We've also had at least 8 of the following season's year-end top 10 in each case. Until we start to fall off of this type of accuracy, it's hard to want to change much. I'd challenge any group of rankers to peruse season results a while and come up with that sort of one-year-in-advance success.

 

NEVER COUNT OUT PORTAGE! Lmao

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Picking the top 5 team isn't very tough let's predict now and i bet half of the board gets it. The top 5 Indy the problem it should be about getting the top teams there.

Fair enough. If people don't think it's worth having a qualification process and group-think statewide voting would do just as well, it would save me a lot of time! :) 

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Fair enough. If people don't think it's worth having a qualification process and group-think statewide voting would do just as well, it would save me a lot of time! :)

 

Sometimes just trying to read your math gives me a headache, so I can only imagine how much work goes into all of it....

 

One question... what is considered an down the middle average regional?  

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