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Something seems a bit fishy in the FW Semi-state


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State Qualifiers:

Jay County Regional: 19

Goshen Regional: 17

Carroll Regional: 11

Peru Regional: 9

 

 

Regional Category for Team Scoring:

Jay County Regional: Category 3

Goshen Regional: Category 4

Carroll Regional: Category 5

Peru Regional: Category 2

Edited by decbell1
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Well they have the best team!

 

Take away the top team in each Regional:

 

Jay County Regional: 13

Goshen Regional: 13

Carroll Regional: 9

Peru Regional: 6


Well they have the two best teams!

 

Take away the top two teams from each regional:

Jay County Regional: 7

Goshen Regional 9

Carroll Regional: 7

Peru Regional: 4


They are just top heavy:

 

Ticket Rounders:

Jay County Regional: 33

Goshen Regional: 31

Carroll Regional: 29

Peru Regional: 19

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Remember that the Categories reflect overall depth--especially at the bottom rather than the top.  

 

No one has ever argued that the top level talent at Jay County (i.e. number of state qualifiers or even number of second rounders at semi-state is anything less than very strong).  What makes it a slightly below-average regional in DEPTH is that there is a big drop-off in semi-state caliber wrestlers after you get past the first 3 or 4 at each weight--on average.  

 

You have to look at the 6th, 7th...10th best teams to start to see why it is easier--on average--to sneak into the top 4 at Jay County and arrive at semi-state.  If you look at the below comparison, I know you guys know these teams.  There starts to be a big drop-off in the possibility of the existence of semi-state caliber guys from the first group of teams compared to the second.  The category ratings are not a competition for who can advance the most at levels down the road (i.e. semi-state).  It's an evaluation of how crowded or thin the pack is at the BACK of the line for trying to get through this week's tournament (i.e. regional in this case).  

 

Teams 6-12, by Genius Rating, at these regionals:

 

Jay County:

41.64 Muncie Central

31.14 Winchester

24.01 Southern Wells

15.18 South Adams

14.75 Blackford

12.50 Wes-Del

9.31 Norwell

 

Carroll:

46.41 FW Concordia

42.64 FW Dwenger

39.97 New Haven

38.80 Huntington North

34.84 Woodlan

32.35 FW North

28.77 Churubusco

Edited by maligned
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Carroll is the weakest Category 5 regional by a small margin in terms of depth, which is what we're concerned with.

 

A relevant question of Carroll's regional for our purposes is this (rather than semi-state individuals' performance): 

 

Is there any Category 4 regional whose 5th and 6th best guys at each weight will add better dual meet value to their teams next year, on average, than those of the Carroll regional or other Category 5 regionals?   

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Long story short. I think the 4th place Jay County Regional guy is getting short-changed. He deserves SS points like everyone else that qualifies. 

 

  Try explaining to your Semi-State Qualifier that because he placed 4th at Regional, he didn't score any more team points in the system, than someone who lost 1st round in their same Regional, and then telling him, that even though he went to Semi-State, he scored the same amount of points as someone who placed 6th in another Sectional.  We talk over and over about "growing" this sport,   I think the IHSWCA State Duals is an excellent event...........but the points system that it is based on, is not a positive for the kids that are going out on the mat and wrestling.

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I will say this about the Jay County regional.  It has an amazing atmosphere that feels much bigger than the small schools that make up most of it.  I've been to it from start to finish a couple of times.  I think part of the reason it feels "better" and maybe even "deeper" at the bottom end is that even a tiny school could produce a state qualifier in that area, just because of the wrestling culture that gives unusual opportunities to get good in clubs year-round, even if there's nobody else good at your school.  

 

But I just added them up.  The 4th place guys from the 6 regionals who were Category 2 or 3 went a combined 2-82 (Jay County did get one of these) in their first round matches (2.4%).  Category 4-6 regionals win about 15% of those matches.  

 

The system is working to predict the good teams, guys.  All the data bear it out.  Every single one of the season-ending Top 5 duals teams in all 3 classes were at Team State this year.  That's what we hope for.  We're going to evaluate things in-detail every year to make sure it's going how it should, but it's not broken.  Keep bringing the feedback and we'll keep doing the best we can with the restraints we've been given for having this type of qualification process.

 

Best of luck this weekend!

Edited by maligned
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My point is that a system that is extremely difficult for the casual wrestling fan to understand, is not benefiting our sport.  I understand that the "point" system is in place because of our current constraints, but I believe the IHSWCA's efforts should be directed towards overcoming those constraints and eliminating the current points system. Individuals outside of the wrestling world have enough difficulty understanding the sport of wrestling, and then we add a point system that is even more difficult to understand?  

 

How many kids that are currently participating in high school wrestling could legitimately explain how a team qualifies for IHSWCA Team State?

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It's definitely frustrating for all of us that there's no way to get a weigh-in exemption or to find a way to coordinate all schools to clear their schedules so we can do an all-in tournament of some type.  That would be mine and everyone's first choice.  Until then, we're unfortunately stuck with needing a way to select teams.  And once we're stuck with that reality, it's very, very difficult to have an unbiased qualifying process that isn't a little complicated if we want some accuracy.  We hope we can keep educating people on it for as long as we have the need to do qualification this way.  Many coaches are writing me messages and learning the process well.  Just as curious people are able to get a handle on individual tournament scoring and its layers, I feel confident people will find our system accessible as well.  Again, best of luck.

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It's definitely frustrating for all of us that there's no way to get a weigh-in exemption or to find a way to coordinate all schools to clear their schedules so we can do an all-in tournament of some type.  That would be mine and everyone's first choice.  Until then, we're unfortunately stuck with needing a way to select teams.  And once we're stuck with that reality, it's very, very difficult to have an unbiased qualifying process that isn't a little complicated if we want some accuracy.  We hope we can keep educating people on it for as long as we have the need to do qualification this way.  Many coaches are writing me messages and learning the process well.  Just as curious people are able to get a handle on individual tournament scoring and its layers, I feel confident people will find our system accessible as well.  Again, best of luck.

 

Thank you.

 

Again, I understand why the system is in place, and I appreciate the amount of time and effort that you and others have directed towards developing an accurate selection process.

I am not wanting the Indiana wrestling community to continue to be content with this selection process.  I have talked to more coaches that either do not understand the process, or do not appreciate the process, than coaches who value  it.  Working towards a weigh-in exemption(s) along with making the tournament more inclusive is the direction Indiana High School Wrestling needs to point.  

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If the point is to shoot for fairness, change the rule regarding the number of team members to at least seven. As we all know is 7 x 6 = 42 which the most a team could muster out of dual is a tie, which would be highly unlikely. It's not too late to rearrange the classes based on the change. It is IHSWCA not the IHSAA, so the rules can be changed.

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I think 7 is a little too high since you're using this year's numbers to project next year's teams. A team with only 7 this year may be mostly underclassmen and have 9 or 10 or more the next year. I wouldn't set the limit lower than 5 since that gives them room to grow above the 7 limit.

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Maligned,

 

Wade DuPont brings up an excellent point.  Is this something the IHSWCA would consider for the 2016 event in December?

It was thoroughly discussed prior to last year's qualifying process and the coaches voted to go with the 3 minimum.  I would guess that if there's enough noise from people, the coaches would look at it again.

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Yeah, sorry.  It's been discussed lots of times, so I didn't clarify.  The coaches feel very strongly about the principle of an "all-in" event, so they want to count as many schools as possible toward classification.  Also, 3 at sectional is the cutoff the IHSAA uses for counting sectional scores.  

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Based off genius rankings the forth best team at Jay County Sectional would have been the eighth best at both Carroll and New Haven Sectional. The forth best at Delta would be 7th at Carroll and 8th at New Haven.

I look at the regionals like this,you have three really good teams- Carroll, Bellmont, Yorktown. Those three are a level above the rest. Jay County is ahead there.

You then had four teams Adams Central, Garrett, Jay County, and Leo that are pretty even and could go any number of ways.

Following that group you would have Jay County with just Muncie Central and Winchester that be in the mix with Columbia City, Homestead, Huntington North, Woodlan, Bishop Dwenger, Northside, Concordia, Busco, Snider, wayne, and New Haven. It is the depth of teams that make Carroll tougher imo.

Columbia City is probably actually in that AC, Garrett, Jay County, Leo group.

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When we have the opportunity to look at real world results, we should. In cases like this scoring system that we have to use for state duals we use it. Our options are limited.

 

The fact of the matter is Jay County Regional outperformed the rest of the regionals at the New Haven Semi State in the real world. The Jay County Regional had almost double the amount of state qualifiers as the mighty Carroll Regional. So Carroll Regional has better teams that don't qualify anybody for SS than Jay County Regional.

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