Novice Bat Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Maligned, I know you have some fancy spreadsheets. Do any of them have the odds of each team advancing a certain number of wrestlers?For instance, do you have a spreadsheet that could say there is a 3.9% chance that Warren Central advances 14 wrestlers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maligned Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's a little late in the game to run all the scenarios for a bunch of teams, but for Warren specifically: Even if you think 4 guys are virtual locks, 10 overall are favored to advance, and everybody on the team has at least a 10% chance to advance (which is the summary of how I would assess their 14 draw situations)...I still only estimate about a 1 in 20,000 chance of them getting everybody through on the same day. There are just too many things that have to go right in such a tough event for something of that magnitude to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dyoung Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 has a team ever got 14 to state? just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestling Scholar Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Could you throw stats together to see semi-state vs semi-state overall dual record. I'd be curious how that would come out. Or how about an average or mean Genius score for each semi-state. Its a good time to start bragging up are semi-states and we need some real data behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maligned Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 has a team ever got 14 to state? just wondering It's possible it happened years ago when there were less weight classes and less teams in the dominant era of Bloomington High School, but it hasn't happened in what we might call the "modern era." Anybody else know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novice Bat Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's possible it happened years ago when there were less weight classes and less teams in the dominant era of Bloomington High School, but it hasn't happened in what we might call the "modern era." Anybody else know?Not In the modern era, closest I would guess is that 2003 MD team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD92 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 No, and I believe that it is unlikely that it happened in years ago when Bloomington was ruling IN. The qualification for each level of the tournament series has changed a lot over the years, so it is probably "easier" to do it now. MD qualified 11 one year, maybe '95 or '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novice Bat Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 No, and I believe that it is unlikely that it happened in years ago when Bloomington was ruling IN. The qualification for each level of the tournament series has changed a lot over the years, so it is probably "easier" to do it now. MD qualified 11 one year, maybe '95 or '96.I tried to look for the 2002-2003 results, but that's the one year the results are nonexistent. Yes, I agree it probably is owned by Bloomington, but how many weight classes existed back then? Did they even have 11 weight classes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Participants by grade09th 79 9%10th 184 21%11th 288 32%12th 345 39%By Weight and gradeWgt 9 10 11 12106 29 18 9 8113 11 17 26 10120 11 21 18 14126 8 15 18 23132 2 14 19 29138 5 13 17 29145 4 12 20 28152 1 8 23 32160 1 13 23 27170 2 12 26 24182 3 12 20 29195 1 8 22 33220 1 13 21 29285 0 8 26 30Most Wins 50 by Trey McCartney of Harrison(WL)Most Losses 30 by Kyle Simpkins of LaPorteAverage wins 29.9Average Losses 7.6Undefeated wrestlers 29106 Andrew Black of Shenandoah113 Colton Cummings of Lowell113 Baxter Annakin of Castle120 Blake Mulkey of Brownsburg126 Brock Hudkins of Danville132 Elliott Molloy of Danville132 Chad Red of New Palestine132 Fernando Luevano of West Noble132 Nick Lee of Evansville Mater Dei138 Kyle Hatch of Warsaw138 Sage Coy of Delta138 Brayton Lee of Brownsburg145 Isaac Eicher of Leo152 Cael McCormick of Yorktown160 Alston Bane of Richmond160 Laine Frazee of Fountain Central160 Jacob Covaciu of Merrillville160 Mitchell Mundy of Southridge170 Drew Hughes of Lowell170 Nathan Walton of Brownsburg182 Blake Rypel of Indianapolis Cathedral182 Andrew Davison of Chesterton195 Jacob Cavins of Milan195 Ben Stewart of Indianapolis Cathedral220 Mason Parris of Lawrenceburg220 Evan Ellis of Eastern (Greentown)220 Gunnar Larson of Avon220 Kobe Woods of Penn285 Shawn Streck of Merrillville bellrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpt189 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Mater dei qualified 11 in 2006-07 season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestling Scholar Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I tried to look for the 2002-2003 results, but that's the one year the results are nonexistent. Yes, I agree it probably is owned by Bloomington, but how many weight classes existed back then? Did they even have 11 weight classes? I think the early 90s maybe late 80s when they switched from 12 to 14 weight classes. Loki27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loki27 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's a little late in the game to run all the scenarios for a bunch of teams, but for Warren specifically: Even if you think 4 guys are virtual locks, 10 overall are favored to advance, and everybody on the team has at least a 10% chance to advance (which is the summary of how I would assess their 14 draw situations)...I still only estimate about a 1 in 20,000 chance of them getting everybody through on the same day. There are just too many things that have to go right in such a tough event for something of that magnitude to happen. What would the odds be if Warren went to the Fort Wayne SS? Like 1 in 4 maybe even 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What would the odds be if Warren went to the Fort Wayne SS? Like 1 in 4 maybe even 50%Probably 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NICfan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I was thinking Warren might get 14 in the finals if they were at ft wayne ss. Ihsaa might have just givin them their first place medals and told them they didn't need to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I don't think Warren would get all 14 out of FW. Devon Blount would have a tough time at 182 and Tim Wright might not be able to get out at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X_R A T E D Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Warren Central wouldn't get a wrestler out at Fort Wayne 145 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1gold Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 You forgot Cael McCoy !! DQ didn't count .. And he's a good kid. Undefeated in my book 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishman1114 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I tried to look for the 2002-2003 results, but that's the one year the results are nonexistent. Yes, I agree it probably is owned by Bloomington, but how many weight classes existed back then? Did they even have 11 weight classes? MD had 10 in 02-03. 103 Brian Bittner 112 Bryan Williams 125 Craig Macke 130 Matt Coughlin 135 Aaron Scott 145 Craig Weinzapfel 152 Dustin Nosko 160 Sam Wildeman 171 Blake Maurer 215 Thomas Unfried Try this link for 02-03 results: http://www.ihsaa.org/archive/b-wrestling/03WrYearbook.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maligned Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 First round stats last year: Evansville 1 vs. 4: 47-9 2 vs. 3: 39-17 Fort Wayne 1 vs. 4: 55-1 2 vs. 3: 38-18 Merrillville 1 vs. 4: 51-5 2 vs. 3: 37-19 New Castle 1 vs. 4: 50-6 2 vs. 3: 39-17 Totals 1 over 4: 90.6% 2 over 3: 68.3% backtothemat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novice Bat Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 MD had 10 in 02-03. 103 Brian Bittner 112 Bryan Williams 125 Craig Macke 130 Matt Coughlin 135 Aaron Scott 145 Craig Weinzapfel 152 Dustin Nosko 160 Sam Wildeman 171 Blake Maurer 215 Thomas Unfried Try this link for 02-03 results: http://www.ihsaa.org/archive/b-wrestling/03WrYearbook.pdf Thanks for the link. Pretty dominant team there. Anyone have an idea what team had placed the most guys at state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWINfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 MD had 10 in 02-03. 103 Brian Bittner 112 Bryan Williams 125 Craig Macke 130 Matt Coughlin 135 Aaron Scott 145 Craig Weinzapfel 152 Dustin Nosko 160 Sam Wildeman 171 Blake Maurer 215 Thomas Unfried Try this link for 02-03 results: http://www.ihsaa.org/archive/b-wrestling/03WrYearbook.pdf 8 of which placed, 7 in the top 3, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgyorks Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 First round stats last year: Evansville 1 vs. 4: 47-9 2 vs. 3: 39-17 Fort Wayne 1 vs. 4: 55-1 2 vs. 3: 38-18 Merrillville 1 vs. 4: 51-5 2 vs. 3: 37-19 New Castle 1 vs. 4: 50-6 2 vs. 3: 39-17 Totals 1 over 4: 90.6% 2 over 3: 68.3% I think it's insane that the 2 vs 3 only varies +/- 2 wins/losses across all SS. That's wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpt189 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I believe Mishawaka placed 9 wrestlers the last year they won team state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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