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All 14 To Regionals?


Wrestling119

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Castle stands a very solid chance may end up with the most sectional champions of any team at the Castle Regional.

The Evansville Central sectional will be one to watch closely. Mater Dei should win it but there are some seriously talented kids that could spoil some Westside plans for individuals.

 

Everyone has to show up and take care of their business!

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Using the nearly 1000 season results from the past 3 years and running some advanced technical mumbo jumbo data analysis, I have a spread sheet that can spit out the probability of any team to qualify any given number of guys for regional or semi-state based on their Genius rating and sectional or regional difficulty.

 

Warren and Brownsburg, even with ultra-high Genius levels, have only about a 5% chance of getting 14 to semi-state because their regionals are two crowded.

 

For an average regional (Category 4 in team state qualifying), teams above Genius level 99 will have a 5% or better chance of qualifying 14 (about 3 schools per year).

 

For a Category 3 regional, a team of Genius level 90 or better has at least a 5% chance and a team like Brownsburg or Warren would have better than a 50-50 shot (but their regionals, again, are too difficult)

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I'll bite. So how about the chances Castle getting all 14 through to Regional?

With your genius level and sectional difficulty, not looking at all at matchups or the recent return of a guy like Annakin, but just raw normal expectations:

 

Average: 12.85 regional qualifiers

88.5% chance of 12 or more and 22.5% chance of all 14

Edited by maligned
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I'll bite. So how about the chances Castle getting all 14 through to Regional?

 

Castle not only has a very good chance to get all 14 to Regional, but I think they are the favorite to win 106 - 138, 152, 160, 170, and 285. And at 145, 182, 195, and 220 I feel like any of those guys could win it. How crazy would it be to have not only send all 14 to regionals, but have 14 sectional champs! Not likely to happen, but wouldn't surprise me if it did.

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Castle not only has a very good chance to get all 14 to Regional, but I think they are the favorite to win 106 - 138, 152, 160, 170, and 285. And at 145, 182, 195, and 220 I feel like any of those guys could win it. How crazy would it be to have not only send all 14 to regionals, but have 14 sectional champs! Not likely to happen, but wouldn't surprise me if it did.

Yeah, if you look at the matchups and not just the raw numbers, it seems there's much higher than a 22.5% chance of all 14 going through.  Only 195 is truly iffy, with 285 also having a slight chance of being challenging; but I'd put the chance of all 14 at better than 50-50 if you look at the actual matchups.

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