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If school size is the biggest factor, shouldn't the largest school in the State forever (Carmel) produce the most champions?  Are they an EXTREME anomaly too?  Could it be that they focus on sports other than wrestling?

 

Carmel hasn't had a state champ for almost 20 years.  Carmel is far from the only huge school with dismal wrestling success compared to their size.

 

Just because cheese is round and the moon is round, doesn't mean the moon is made of cheese.

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Preface: I am only in support of two classes. Here are some stats to look over https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1r-4OoK27f6-4cfQlPpjYA--6h4Z9IbyXwmAwnAeo9cc/edit?usp=sharing   First and fore

This right here is the best argument I've heard in my short time involved with wrestling. We have the best of both worlds and I think we should stop trying to be like every other state and instead be

Amazing if it is true that the small schools are getting more kids out for the team due to team state, why wouldn't this help if our individual state was classed?

Yeah I get that point. Guess I would think being a 1A/2A/3A individual champion being a glorified Al Smith champion. Still a champion though and that can be crucial to new wrestlers wanting to join. Single class being the champion of champions. Also it was interesting AJ did come back with that answer.

So tell me, you see a kid from your area at the grocery store that just placed at state in a small division. Do you spit on him and throw some tomatoes at him? Or do you shake his hand and tell him congratulations and you enjoyed watching him at state?

 

In the grand scheme of things he won't care because his school, team, family, and friends will celebrate his accomplishments. He won't need your justification for his accomplishments.

If school size is the biggest factor, shouldn't the largest school in the State forever (Carmel) produce the most champions? Are they an EXTREME anomaly too? Could it be that they focus on sports other than wrestling?

 

Carmel hasn't had a state champ for almost 20 years. Carmel is far from the only huge school with dismal wrestling success compared to their size.

 

Just because cheese is round and the moon is round, doesn't mean the moon is made of cheese.

Carmel has more state champions than the smallest school has state qualifiers.
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I don't want the easy answer, just the answer to my question.

I would guess its the same reason as Indiana...the are saying it is an individual sport.  Track, Swimming an Wrestling are one class in Cali where the rest are classed sports.

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So tell me, you see a kid from your area at the grocery store that just placed at state in a small division. Do you spit on him and throw some tomatoes at him? Or do you shake his hand and tell him congratulations and you enjoyed watching him at state?

In the grand scheme of things he won't care because his school, team, family, and friends will celebrate his accomplishments. He won't need your justification for his accomplishments.

Carmel has more state champions than the smallest school has state qualifiers.

Well since I'm proposing classed and single class I'd congratulate him. Replying to the point as to why Florida dropped it because a champion isn't "the" champion. Heck I'd be happy to be a "glorified Al Smith" kind of champion and not a Ihsaa champion. Single class will bring back the traditional team rivalries while still giving a Milan vs Muncie Central equivalent. Classed gives more teams a chance to build a tradition. The best case scenario is a small school winning Class 1A team dual state, have multiple class 1A individual champions earning the 1A individual team points championship. Then going into the single class tournament team duals and knocking off the traditional powers. Also taking multiple individuals and placing them at single class state. Hopefully 1 or more champions there and maybe earning enough points to place in the top teams or shock the world and win the individual team points in the state.

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Well since I'm proposing classed and single class I'd congratulate him. Replying to the point as to why Florida dropped it because a champion isn't "the" champion. Heck I'd be happy to be a "glorified Al Smith" kind of champion and not a Ihsaa champion. Single class will bring back the traditional team rivalries while still giving a Milan vs Muncie Central equivalent. Classed gives more teams a chance to build a tradition. The best case scenario is a small school winning Class 1A team dual state, have multiple class 1A individual champions earning the 1A individual team points championship. Then going into the single class tournament team duals and knocking off the traditional powers. Also taking multiple individuals and placing them at single class state. Hopefully 1 or more champions there and maybe earning enough points to place in the top teams or shock the world and win the individual team points in the state.

Milan won state 60+ years ago...the reality is, Milan isn't winning a state title in a single class wrestling state.

 

The reality it, it is EXTREMELY difficult for a kid from a 1A school(bottom 100ish teams) to win a state title. 

 

Waiting for a Milan type kid isn't a good reason to keep our flawed system. You'll still have underdogs in a classed system to root for.

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I didn't say 14 individual statements in the first place, so that they could be picked apart and taken out of context.
Using paragraphs would help your "context."

They were reasons that influenced each other. Also the argument that it must be the right way because 42 other states are doing it is flawed or that it's not an insane idea because 42 other states have it. Like ole Bobby, momma always says that just because everyone else is doing it doesn't mean it's right? Question for you using facts for Wyoming and Idaho, is the quality of there wrestling or wrestlers improving?

42 states have classed wrestling, states that are bigger AND smaller than us. There is no uproar in those states to go to a single class system. Why is that? Why wouldn't there be some sort of movement in at least ONE of those states if it was so horrible?

Big thing I want to mention is you're saying that you'd rather be a state champion in 1A because you would have a poster and a shiny ring and people would celebrate you is the wrong thing to teach kids.

Teaching kids that hard work and dedication will yield a reward? I guess Monrovia didn't learn those things this year when they won a 2A football title.

 

That's all the superficial stuff that means nothing without the reason of why you have those things. Also, I want to congratulate Bellmont because I'm taking nothing away from there accomplishments,

So you want to say what Bellmont is doing is superficial...yet congratulate them too? Way to chastise their celebration and pat them on the back too.

 

To compare class system as team duals and individual tourney is two opposites bud.

So are you saying schools, families, teammates, coaches, and communities wouldn't celebrate having a state champion in a classed system?

 

Bigger schools completely matter in team duals because of obvious reasons of having a bigger selection or pool to draw talent out of. That's what football and basketball are and why other sports need to be classed. In an individual tournament, it's different because it's not how good the rest of your team is, it's how good you are. So I certainly think if you class the individual tournament it takes the validity of saying your the best wrestler [champ] of your state.

There are 1800 "invalid" state champions every year. Amazing how some of t hose "invalid" champions have gone on to win an "invalid" NCAA title(remember it's classed).

 

Also so your stats aren't valid stats if you manipulate them and use MD as 3A when they're not. I also feel as though MD would be an anomaly to most of your argument about the classed system and how bigger schools have the advantage. 

Mater Dei has 12% of all 2 class and 23% in a 3 class system if they are in the smallest class. That is called a statistical outlier. Please look it up. 

 

I think that's the beauty of wrestling is that especially in the individual tournament, ultimately is how far you want to go.

So are you saying the small school kids don't want to go as far as big school kids?

 

I'm not saying team mates and coaches don't matter, but every coach know that if the wrestler is going to be good, they have to decide it and they have to decide how good.

You actually stated that teammates don't matter "You can argue team mates to practice with. Well those team mates are now sitting in the stands watching and can't help the individual."

 

I'm not saying that smaller classes don't work hard because they have less champs.

Yes you did, you stated "ultimately is how far you want to go." I guess since a significant less amount of kids from small schools don't go to state they really don't want to go to state.

 

I'm saying that that they still have the same shot out on the Mat as the other kid.

Take my bet, I'll give you every 1A wrestler, roughly 1400 entries in the state tournament. I'll take 50 3A wrestlers, lets see who has more state qualifiers.

 

To say they don't is teaching them that in life if your not given the same opportunities or same resources to use as other people have well then don't work harder to get where you want or achieve want you want to ultimately achieve. We'll just help you and change things so that you can have the same thing.

Ahhh YES, so the kids that don't go to state don't work hard! Finally you said it! To insinuate a D3(small) Ohio state champ doesn't work hard is absurd.

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Milan won state 60+ years ago...the reality is, Milan isn't winning a state title in a single class wrestling state.

 

The reality it, it is EXTREMELY difficult for a kid from a 1A school(bottom 100ish teams) to win a state title. 

 

Waiting for a Milan type kid isn't a good reason to keep our flawed system. You'll still have underdogs in a classed system to root for.

True but I think kids still want to be the best of the best which single class answers. I'd like to see classed wrestling grow the sport. What would single class in addition hurt? Basically a battle of champions that would bring enthusiasm in another way. Like I said, I realize this is wanting my cake and eating it too by supporting both sides.

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True but I think kids still want to be the best of the best which single class answers. I'd like to see classed wrestling grow the sport. What would single class in addition hurt? Basically a battle of champions that would bring enthusiasm in another way. Like I said, I realize this is wanting my cake and eating it too by supporting both sides.

The kids will compete in whatever championship is in front of them. The same way they do it in the classed team sports. You don't see teams or kids saying "thus sucks we won 1A, I really want to see how we do against the 4A champs."

 

The single class addition has never worked.

Let us hope they do not fix something that is not broke.

Are you willing to take my bet?

 

You get all 1A wrestlers, I pick 50 3A wrestlers. Whoever gets the most state qualifiers wins. 

 

I'll put up $50 worth of IndianaMat gear, you can add a McDonald's value meal.

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This is a football statistic, explain why these states are so talent rich in football compared to Indiana or the bulk of the nation for that matter. School size? Class sports? Culture? Better Coaching? Deeper talent pool? I don't know why but statistically they are head and shoulders above most states. I think it's kinda the culture. This was compiled from 2010-2014.

 

 

"This isn’t news. California, Texas and Florida have been and will always be the most fertile recruiting states in the country. Of the 1,000 players studied, 404 of them hail from one of these three states. Of the 162 five-star signees during the span, 71 come from either The Sunshine, Lone Star or Golden States. So a staggering 40.4 percent of Top-200 talents come from these three states and 43.8 percent of five-star recruits come from The Big Three. The SEC can claim both Texas and Florida as “footprint” states and is this is why many are so bullish on Kevin Sumlin and Texas A&M as a sleeping giant. Florida tops all states with 156 top-200 prospects and 31 five-star talents over the last five cycles. Texas is second in both categories with 132 and 24 respectively.

 

Georgia has delivered no less than 13 top-200 prospects and at least two five-stars in each of the last five classes. In all, Georgia ranks fourth in the nation with 78 top-200 players over the last five — well ahead of Ohio, which ranks fifth with 47 signees. The 13 five-star prospects to come from The Peach State are just three behind the state of California (16) despite having a significantly smaller population base - See more at: http://athlonsports.com/college-football/state-recruiting"

 

Anybody care to take a stab at how this could correlate with Indiana and wrestling?

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I coached at Fort Wayne Wayne and was blessed to be able to see the school get its first two state qualifiers in 15 years 2 years ago.  I am not anti or pro classed, as I see the benefits of both.  Last year was the first Indiana State Finals that I missed since I was probably 10 (19 years) and it will forever be one of the most exciting wrestling environments I have experienced.  On the other hand, as a former coach of what people would consider a bottom feeder 3A school,  I think a classed system would have been beneficial for our program.


 


I have had the unique experience of moving to one of the few other single class states, California.  I no longer coach as I am a principal now, but was able to watch how California's system works.  I must say that you can't compare the two states what-so-ever.  There are 10 sections that make up the state and allotment to the state tournament works different from section to section.  For example, the Central section (where Clovis and Buchanan are) gets 10 out of 40 allotments for the state finals in each weight class.  In comparison, the North Coast section gets 3.  This is very similar to NCAA, better sections get more spots.


 


The state tournament has 3 levels, section divisionals, section masters, and state finals.  I will use my section, Sac-Joaquin, as an example.  There are 174 schools broken up into 26 conferences and 6 divisions.  The section division tournament is by school size. Division 1A and 1AA qualify 8 for section masters, Division 2-5 qualify 4 for section masters.  At section masters, brackets are 32 wrestlers from all 6 divisions and the top 6 from the section masters go to the state finals.  Across the state, there are 850+ schools that wrestle and 40 qualify for the state finals.


 


As far as dominance goes, in the last 5 seasons, there has only been 2 schools outside of DI, the largest in enrollment, (Oakdale - 4 times, Benicia - once) that have finished in the top five of the team race in the Sac-Joaquin section.  As far as for the state goes, in the past 6 years, 4 teams under 1,500 students have placed in the top five at least once (St John Bosco, De La Salle, San Marino, Selma).  The average enrollment of a top 5 California team is about 2,200 (the size of Merrillville HS).  Only 13 teams have placed in the top 5 in state in the last 6 seasons.  


 


I have only experienced one full California wrestling season, so I don't have a full opinion yet.  I can tell you that the disparity in dominance of larger schools is even greater than what there is in Indiana.  My county (Napa) is very weak in wrestling, so I don't know what life is like down in Clovis.  Just my thoughts.


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Since the team score is comprised of overall individual competition at a high level the overall skill level of team can be derived from the team results.  FFTs do skew this big picture analysis but as an overall it can give beginning insight into large school vs small schools.  The larger the sample size the less the impact of the anomalies, so if you take 100% of the matches wrestled in Indiana as your sample the impact of Mater Dei and Carmel are negligible on the analysis.

 

The reasons why and skill levels of individuals are a different level of analysis. but any change to the state level tournament would need to be by school population anyway.  

 

What is the 1A vs 3A total record so far this year in the dual results data base?

Edited by randalllynch
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I'll bet you that the percent of state qualifiers by class corresponds within 4% +/- of the total student population of each class. It us usually pretty close to how it works out, which is what you would expect. Want to take me up on that bet?

And it would be much worse if big schools could enter more than 14 at sectional.
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I would imagine even that 75% win rate is skewed a bit (it should be higher if a true round-robin of 3A vs 1A were wrestled).  Only good 1A schools would most likely try to schedule 3A competition and top 3A schools rarely face a 1A school.

Agree, I would have to break out my inferential statistics books to calculate the margin of error, but I do agree it is most likely skewed towards the 1A 

 

A next step of analysis would be to identify the match scores between these 1A vs 3A to provide a high level gap analysis.  The median/mode/st deviaion range of score would most likely be a more accurate assessment since I see a lot of xx - 0 scores in the data base that would hugely skew the data

Edited by randalllynch
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Agree, I would have to break out my inferential statistics books to calculate the margin of error, but I do agree it is most likely skewed towards the 1A 

 

A next step of analysis would be to identify the match scores between these 1A vs 3A to provide a high level gap analysis.

Don't tempt me.

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