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NCAA Qualifiers by Home State


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Pennsylvania has twice the population of Indiana, but gets 9x the NCAA qualifiers.  This isn't as simple as "Pennsylvania's population is larger than Indiana's".

 

According to NFHS data on high school sports participation for 2012-2013, Pennsylvania has about 28% more high school wrestlers than Indiana.  I would have expected a higher participation number since the population of the state is higher and wrestling is reportedly more a part of the fabric of life there.

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The # of qualifiers are as expected, no surprises.

 

1. PA

2. OH

3. NJ/IL

 

The amazing thing to me is...the toughness of a state like New Jersey! So small but yet so mighty!

 

PA is the KING but with Illinois winning every level (schoolboy, cadet, junior,---duals and Fargo), it appears that PA could have a rival soon.

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A couple of high schools have as many or more than the entire state of Indiana (Blair and St. Ed's)... hmm...

 

Oh, that's right - they don't count since they are private schools that "recruit" and we all know what a dirty word that is.

 

Hanover Central is Indiana's poster child high school this year... and with Micic coming out next year too... look out.  Howe, Petrov, and Micic... if you're not paying attention, you should be.

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As a numbers geek, I like to see what the raw data tells me, without regard for extenuating factors, first.  Start with the "all things equal" data and see what it tells us.  So in the data below, I compared each states population with # of NCAA entries and arrived at a ratio. 

 

So if a State A contained 5% of the overall US population, it would be reasonable to expect that they would comprise 5% of the entries to the NCAA tnmt (about 16-17guys). This would be reflected in a ratio # of "1". 

If State A had 10% of the entries, the ratio would be "2"

If State A had 2.5% of the entries, the ratio would be ".5"

 

 

State B is a much smaller state and represents only .25% of the overall US population, it would be reasonable to expect that they would comprise .25% of the entries to the NCAA tnmt. (about 1 guy) This would be reflected in a ratio # of "1". 

If State B had .5% of the entries, the ratio would be "2"

If State B had .125% of the entries, the ratio would be ".5"

 

The table is sorted by the ratio number.  It seems useful as a starting point because if a state like CA has 13 qualifiers and a state like SD has 4, it's easy to say WOOHOO CA has more, so it MUST be better! 

 

When you consider the populations though, you can see that basically the probability of a kid in SD being an NCAA qualifier is about 14x's greater (4.66 vs. .33)

 

As a state that comprises 11.91% of the overall population, to achieve a 1.0 ratio CA should represent 39 of the 330 NCAA entries.

 

[table]

Abbrv % of US NCAA entries % of NCAA field Ratio

PA 4.06% 63 19.09% 4.70

IA 0.97% 15 4.55% 4.69

SD 0.26% 4 1.21% 4.66

ND 0.21% 2 0.61% 2.89

NJ 2.81% 24 7.27% 2.59

OH 3.69% 30 9.09% 2.46

MT 0.32% 2 0.61% 1.89

MN 1.70% 10 3.03% 1.78

OK 1.20% 7 2.12% 1.77

CO 1.61% 9 2.73% 1.69

WY 0.18% 1 0.30% 1.68

MO 1.91% 10 3.03% 1.59

IL 4.10% 21 6.36% 1.55

MI 3.16% 16 4.85% 1.53

WI 1.82% 9 2.73% 1.50

HI 0.43% 2 0.61% 1.41

VA 2.56% 11 3.33% 1.30

ID 0.51% 2 0.61% 1.19

DE 0.29% 1 0.30% 1.04

UT 0.88% 3 0.91% 1.03

WV 0.59% 2 0.61% 1.03

IN 2.07% 7 2.12% 1.02

MD 1.85% 6 1.82% 0.98

NY 6.19% 20 6.06% 0.98

OR 1.22% 3 0.91% 0.75

KS 0.91% 2 0.61% 0.67

WA 2.15% 4 1.21% 0.56

CT 1.14% 2 0.61% 0.53

NE 0.58% 1 0.30% 0.52

NC 3.05% 5 1.52% 0.50

GA 3.10% 4 1.21% 0.39

NV 0.86% 1 0.30% 0.35

CA 11.91% 13 3.94% 0.33

FL 6.01% 6 1.82% 0.30

MA 2.09% 2 0.61% 0.29

SC 1.48% 1 0.30% 0.20

AL 1.53% 1 0.30% 0.20

TX 8.04% 4 1.21% 0.15

AK 0.23% 0 0.00% 0.00

AR 0.93% 0 0.00% 0.00

AZ 2.04% 0 0.00% 0.00

KY 1.39% 0 0.00% 0.00

LA 1.45% 0 0.00% 0.00

ME 0.42% 0 0.00% 0.00

MS 0.95% 0 0.00% 0.00

NH 0.42% 0 0.00% 0.00

NM 0.66% 0 0.00% 0.00

RI 0.34% 0 0.00% 0.00

TN 2.03% 0 0.00% 0.00

VT 0.20% 0 0.00% 0.00

[/table]

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AWOOD1:

NCAA qualifiers are 1 method of measuring but I prefer measuring  (the home states of) NCAA AA's as a true test of strength for each state. Lets wait and see after this weekend, perhaps the data will be similar? ;)

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Alaska is classed and their state finals are held in random igloos around the state.

 

Let's not be like Alaska.

 

I grew up in Alaska, and wrestled in and graduated from an Alaska High School. States usually at one of the major Arenas or at times the largest High school (which happens to be my high school, gyms about as big as new Castle with out the seating capacit.... Small schools is usually held there).

 

Their state tournament is classed, but it's 2 classes. 4A, and 1-2-3A combined..... Separate seasons as well, because a lot of bush (small schools consisting of schools with less than 150 kids) wrestlers also play basketball, which ASAA has accommodated for.  I actually compile the state rankings for Alaska 4A. Due to the population, and the love of basketball in the bush, the seasons are split up, and the 123A schools are very thin on talent in some weights. There's a select few kids who are tough (typically East Anchorage, South Anchorage, and the Valley schools, Wasilla and Colony) as well as Kodiak Island.  Other schools are cyclical, and there's a few who straggle year to year due to the demographic area they live in (My High School used to be ok and was on the rise, but a lot of the best athletes transfer to East or Chugiak (just north of Anchorage) due to coaching and/or military families cycling in and out. Fairbanks has the same issue with cyclic programs due to the military community there as well, with the random Air Force or Army move in that makes noise for a season or two and then moves on. I'm a big proponent of the state movi back to a single class tournament, because the small schools is typically watered down and some areas don't even send an entrant to state (this happens in 4A as well). They do have a 98lb weight that's growing amongst the school, but most of hone talent within the state lies from 106-160. 170 and above are usually dominated in the small schools by 1 or 2 kids each year, with the rest being fodder and a few notches below.  I've often thought that a Semi State qualifier in Indiana could place or even win State in Alaska in a good nUmber of cases (there are a few weights from Alaska I'd put up against Indiana's best and expect a competitive match).

 

When the Alaska state tournament was single class it was reportedly very tough. 

 

Oh, and no shaved ice.  They don't do it up there, but I've not been to state in Alaska in a good long while.

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However, you've never been to a hospitality room until you've had fresh salmon, halibut, and moose steaks in it.  And it's surreal to have sat in a coaches meeting and argued seeding with Lancer Smith and Lennie Zalesky.

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Awood1,

 

That is some interesting info but I am a bit of a numbers geek. But it brings up a couple of questions for me.

 

How did the NCAA arrive at 33 qualifiers per weight class?

&

What does a 33 participant bracket look like?

 

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AWood, I think your numbers would be more meaningful if rather than using the total population of the state, you used the population of high school students, or possibly even male high school students (there are some female outliers but for the most part HS wrestlers are taken from the HS Male population).

 

Florida shows 6% of the population, for instance, but half of those are blue-hairs driving to the MCL.  I would think their ratio would be much higher compared against HS Male population numbers.

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I would like to see the numbers & how Indiana ranked for: AA, finalists & Champs.

 

I know we had 3-AA (3.75%), 2-Finalists (10%) & 1-Champ (10%) but how does that rank with the rest of the states?

 

 

This link may help some.  It maps out Top 12, AAs, Top 3, and champions by home town.  Along with bar graphs of info below that. 

http://jaroslavwrestling.wordpress.com/2014/03/24/2014-ncaa-wrestling-all-americans-graphs-and-maps-of-their-home-states/

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When I look at this the biggest thing that catches my eye is where the qualifiers are not from. The deep South and Texas produce some of the best football players in the country. There has to be a ton of potentially good wrestlers among that group and even more that are not football sized. I know there are great wrestlers from the South and pockets of teams but overall I think "wrestling" is missing out by not being stronger in those states. Of course  few of those states have their major Universities with wrestling programs. This in some way impacts the level of wrestling in the state.

The answer?  I have no idea , with Title IX and the money going to coaches I doubt if any of those schools are going to add wrestling. I think the growth will be in the smaller "enrollment and tuition "driven schools to have more students enrolled to participate in sports.

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I'd say Texas and Georgia are on the rise in wrestling, and Florida has some decent talent each year.  However currently as a whole the rest of the deep southern states have very little wrestling development. 

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I grew up in Alaska, and wrestled in and graduated from an Alaska High School. States usually at one of the major Arenas or at times the largest High school (which happens to be my high school, gyms about as big as new Castle with out the seating capacit.... Small schools is usually held there).

 

Their state tournament is classed, but it's 2 classes. 4A, and 1-2-3A combined..... Separate seasons as well, because a lot of bush (small schools consisting of schools with less than 150 kids) wrestlers also play basketball, which ASAA has accommodated for.  I actually compile the state rankings for Alaska 4A. Due to the population, and the love of basketball in the bush, the seasons are split up, and the 123A schools are very thin on talent in some weights. There's a select few kids who are tough (typically East Anchorage, South Anchorage, and the Valley schools, Wasilla and Colony) as well as Kodiak Island.  Other schools are cyclical, and there's a few who straggle year to year due to the demographic area they live in (My High School used to be ok and was on the rise, but a lot of the best athletes transfer to East or Chugiak (just north of Anchorage) due to coaching and/or military families cycling in and out. Fairbanks has the same issue with cyclic programs due to the military community there as well, with the random Air Force or Army move in that makes noise for a season or two and then moves on. I'm a big proponent of the state movi back to a single class tournament, because the small schools is typically watered down and some areas don't even send an entrant to state (this happens in 4A as well). They do have a 98lb weight that's growing amongst the school, but most of hone talent within the state lies from 106-160. 170 and above are usually dominated in the small schools by 1 or 2 kids each year, with the rest being fodder and a few notches below.  I've often thought that a Semi State qualifier in Indiana could place or even win State in Alaska in a good nUmber of cases (there are a few weights from Alaska I'd put up against Indiana's best and expect a competitive match).

 

When the Alaska state tournament was single class it was reportedly very tough. 

 

Oh, and no shaved ice.  They don't do it up there, but I've not been to state in Alaska in a good long while.

 

No shaved ice a few years ago either. I taught/coached in the bush north of Nome and after coaching in IN for three years, was shocked at the drop off in talent from the two states. Nome and Barrow had a few decent wrestlers (SS quality, IMO) but the only school that would be able to hold its own would be Kotzebue (Perry Meridian of the bush) for its size. I did not get to see any 4A wrestling in AK but the smaller schools were considerable weaker comparatively speaking. Most of that had to do with the love of basketball in the native villages. Although I never thought I'd arrive at a wrestling tournament on a chartered flight (only mode of transportation in the bush). Now I know how Jay Z feels...

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