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maligned

Team State Bid Acceptance List

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3 hours ago, IndianaWrestlingGuy said:

Not crying. Just telling you the Genius system needs some improvement. 

There's no Genius system...people are confusing things.

The Genius ratings have nothing to do with Team State qualification other than assigning quality levels to sectionals and regionals.

You earn your Team State spot based strictly on your individual tournament series performances. The same scoring system that suggested Cathedral would be a top 5 or top 10 team every single year it's existed is picking Cathedral to be the best team in the state next year by a good margin. 

Strength of schedule does not lower or raise your Genius rating. Performing poorly against any team--whether bad or good--would lower your Genius rating. We only show the strength of schedule numbers of the sake of interest--they don't impact anything for any team in any way. They are a simple average of the quality of teams you faced. It's just the nature of things that if you face #50 in the state two times, your average "strength of schedule" will be higher than a team who faces #1 and #300. No one can argue that Cathedral faces a murderer's row all season long--but the AVERAGE opponent faced by Cathedral is lower than some others' average opponents. But Cathedral smashes those teams and that's fully incorporated into the rating. Their rating is NOT dragged down by facing those teams. And any numbers about any team's strength of schedule has ZERO IMPACT on anything related to Team State selection.

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10 hours ago, Wrestling Scholar said:

Maligned,  One thing add  is you had more dual results data to work with this year then prior years to include in the genius ratings which gives you more accurate numbers.   Also,  you're work is awesome and I don't know  of other states that have genius ratings.  I saw once Ohio had an index rating like this. 

Also,   I think genius ratings are unbiased and very close to real,   but I do think a couple teams get overrated maybe  by 10 or so points,  I wont name names.  We've talked about the reason why before, where  a team gets a weaker schedule and when they run up the  score against some inferior teams the can inflate their score a little bit.

I was reading your genius calculation information you posted earlier in the year,  and I saw that the your genius method is used by NCAA football and used by bookees in Vegas.   But one modification they made because of the blowout situation which are similar to wrestling, was to cap the win spread.  They used 50 points as the ceiling.   In other words, if  like Ohio State blew out Kansas by  a score of  77-0,  they would only get 50 point credit in their genius rating.      So what if we made a modification like a 65 point max spread for the genius calculation.   So for example, when a team wins 84-0,  they get an 84 spread in your calc.   In the genius, they would get a 65-0 score credit.

What do you think?

 

 

It's actually quite a bit different in wrestling because the score differential is the collection of 14 separate events that are all contested with top effort. In professional sports, where the margin between top teams and low teams is very slim comparatively speaking, it makes sense to limit point differential results because the assessment of two teams' quality difference in a 57-3 game or a 45-14 game is negligible since so much of the game was played with non-standard substitution, tactics, and effort.

In wrestling, we actually have to adjust the scores of matches between highly ranked and low-ranked teams so that the top teams aren't dragged down by "only" winning 84-0 over a team that is 100 points lower in the ratings. 

It is actually a phenomenon that exists in every score-based rating of this type in any sport that certain teams are capable of crushing anyone that's a notch or two below them because of their balance even though they don't have the talent/star power to hang with teams rated right around them. But that doesn't necessarily mean they're "overrated" in terms of their rating "score" because the rating reflects their expected strength against EVERYONE--not just the teams right next to them. Win/loss based ratings will better reflect some of the slotting of what teams seem to "deserve", but will struggle to capture the true talent of teams that faced a very difficult schedule or teams that happened to lose a few close matches and are overall far less predictive of future results.

Vegas is able to set lines for specific matches that better reflect all of these tendencies because they can build additional elements into point spreads such as matchups, injuries, etc.; but again, they always use score-based ratings like Genius uses as the starting point. For your beloved Raiders, they would look at matchups and know you're actually a 60-point favorite against someone 45 points lower in the ratings but perhaps a 15-point dog against someone right near you. But those two facts balance each other out in assigning a "starting point" rating.

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Same story different issue....people try to do things to provide something that's missing, make new events & opportunities, or improve the sport only to have people criticize, complain, or cry unfair! I  say go start your own thing, get involved, or shut up!

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Sounds like we should do an all-in format for teams filling 7+ weights. :D. Maybe make 4 classes to get even sectionals and the 8 sectional champs get split into 2 semi states in a quad. Best record moves on and tie breaker goes to head to head winner. 

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16 hours ago, buscowrestling said:

Fort Wayne has really been dominant in the smaller classes. Wawasee is the first team not from the FW Semi-state to win either class 1A or 2A.

They used to come to the FW SS. Not sure why Warsaw and Wawasee don't.

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Posted (edited)

All 1A and 2A bids have been accepted. Chesterton declines in 3A so Penn are next up to be invited.

Once these lists are finalized, teams eligible for the two vote-in wildcards per class will receive paperwork to tell the voters more about incoming and JV talent and other positives about their team for next year. Voting will take place in April over the Coaches' Clinic weekend.

Edited by maligned

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On 2/28/2018 at 4:56 PM, WadeDuPont said:

Weird that Yorktown the Delta Sectional Champion is almost 25 points higher than the Jay Sectional Champion - Jay County.  When head to head its probably close to a 43-36 score  with Yorktown winning. That's looking at head to head results and awarding a pin to a weight class the other team did not have a regional qualifier, and in most cases that weight class went on to semi state as well.

Garrett 60-18 over Jay County...Garrett 41-36 over Yorktown...those are results from this season.  Jay County may have been missing a starter when we wrestled them.  I'm just not sure that Jay County and Yorktown would have been that close.  Just my opinion.

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8 hours ago, nkraus said:

Garrett 60-18 over Jay County...Garrett 41-36 over Yorktown...those are results from this season.  Jay County may have been missing a starter when we wrestled them.  I'm just not sure that Jay County and Yorktown would have been that close.  Just my opinion.

Yorktown was the weirdest team in the state this past season. Actually, I agree with Jay folks that they could have gotten within a few of Yorktown--because EVERYONE who was decent came within a few of Yorktown with their automatic giving up of 18 to 24 points between forfeits and younger wrestlers. But with their murderer's row of high-end guys at the weights they did fill well, they could beat anyone except the top 12 or 15 in the state on the right day.

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11 hours ago, nkraus said:

Garrett 60-18 over Jay County...Garrett 41-36 over Yorktown...those are results from this season.  Jay County may have been missing a starter when we wrestled them.  I'm just not sure that Jay County and Yorktown would have been that close.  Just my opinion.

I am not sure of the line-up that day for Jay, but I do know they gave up a defensive pin at 160. Also, I believe Jay beat Adams Central by 18 and Yorktown beat them by 17. My point was in comparing the two sectional champions that feed into the same regional I thought the genius disparity was quite large.

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14 hours ago, maligned said:

All 1A and 2A bids have been accepted. Chesterton declines in 3A so Penn are next up to be invited.

Once these lists are finalized, teams eligible for the two vote-in wildcards per class will receive paperwork to tell the voters more about incoming and JV talent and other positives about their team for next year. Voting will take place in April over the Coaches' Clinic weekend.

I hate to see a team with so much talent decline! 

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1 hour ago, WadeDuPont said:

I am not sure of the line-up that day for Jay, but I do know they gave up a defensive pin at 160. Also, I believe Jay beat Adams Central by 18 and Yorktown beat them by 17. My point was in comparing the two sectional champions that feed into the same regional I thought the genius disparity was quite large.

Without the defensive pin make it 54-21...I just figured a dual between JC and Yorktown and I had Yorktown winning by 18.  Obviously we will never know.  

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1 hour ago, nkraus said:

Without the defensive pin make it 54-21...I just figured a dual between JC and Yorktown and I had Yorktown winning by 18.  Obviously we will never know.  

Yea for sure, you are correct. Just am not sure what the Jay line up was that day.  I think the Jay Yorktown score would be 42-34 in that area somewhere, based on head to head matches and assumptions based on higher placings at regional.

 

 

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Chesterton has already said no...  Now waiting to hear of Cathedral is able to maneuver their schedule or if they are stuck and once again can not attend...  3 A could be looking at 2 replacement teams, but one of those replacement teams may be Penn; so it is not like the tournament will suffer a huge drop off....  

 

 

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, AJ said:

Chesterton has already said no...  Now waiting to hear of Cathedral is able to maneuver their schedule or if they are stuck and once again can not attend...  3 A could be looking at 2 replacement teams, but one of those replacement teams may be Penn; so it is not like the tournament will suffer a huge drop off....  

 

 

If Penn or Cathedral were to decline for some reason, next would be Warren Central, who were the year-end #6 and bring back 13 starters. They won't exactly suck next year either. They lost 3 regional first-round matches they won during the season or they most likely would have gone on to score 30 more points than they did and we'd be talking about them as a top 3 or 4 team for next year. 

I'm still holding out hope for Cathedral and Penn to accept though. Cathedral have a shot to be one of the strongest duals teams we've seen in the last 15 years or so. We'll cross the "who's next" bridge when we come to it. 

Edited by maligned

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, maligned said:

Warren Central were the year-end #6 and bring back 13 starters. They won't exactly suck next year either. They lost 3 regional first-round matches they won during the season or they most likely would have gone on to score 30 more points than they did and we'd be talking about them as a top 3 or 4 team for next year. 

I'm still holding out hope for Cathedral though. They've got a shot to be one of the strongest duals teams we've seen in the last 15 years or so. We'll cross the "whose next" bridge when we come to it. 

On the flip side,  is the  "Committee of Power going have to make some tough decisions".  We need some off-season drama.  Somebody needs to receive that letter that says "Sorry,  you're good but not quite good enough to make it".

3A- Vote in teams Warren Central, Carmel and Mishawka.   If Cathedral comes,   then somebody gets vote off the island.     But if Cathedral declines is it Carmel and Mishawaka with the two vote ins and Warren Central with auto-bid.  Easy day for the C.O.P.

2A-  This looks more ripe  for controversy.   The "Committee of Power might have to work here",   "Southridge, Garrett, Rochester, Delta   are on the bubble.   Maybe Gavit is close enough.    Only two make it.   Who is out?   Who gets the disappointing call "you didn't make it".  

1A-  This also looks tough,  Centerville, Knighstown, Churubuso, Southern Wells maybe Milan.  I hope they're putting together they're resumes and trying to convince the C.O.P.   The committee will show who is in charge and demonstrate there true power by dealing out some disappointment.

Edited by Wrestling Scholar

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1 hour ago, ontherise219 said:

I think Crown point will be one of the better teams next year. CP vs cathedral at Traicoff will be really good. Especially if things fall in to place at CP like it sounds like they might 

152 and up ? Losing a lot of talent in those weights.  

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We will be pretty solid at 152 and 160 next year.....That I am pretty sure of

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On ‎3‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 10:46 PM, ontherise219 said:

I think Crown point will be one of the better teams next year. CP vs cathedral at Traicoff will be really good. Especially if things fall in to place at CP like it sounds like they might 

Crown Point will be good next year.  But in the context of the post,  say they did get voted into participate in the team state tournament,  would they accept the invitation?   Didn't they turn their bid down last year?

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9 minutes ago, maligned said:

Cathedral accepts its bid and completes the list of 30 automatic bids.

We will send out team info sheets to vote-in candidates in the next couple days. 

What a pleasant surprise.

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28 minutes ago, maligned said:

Cathedral accepts its bid and completes the list of 30 automatic bids.

We will send out team info sheets to vote-in candidates in the next couple days. 

Well...here...we...go.....

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