Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
maligned

Genius Ratings 2018

Recommended Posts

Here are Genius Ratings for the full season of 2017-18 in Indiana. Remember that they use the same baseline mathematical system that is used by mainstream sports websites' "computer ratings" and by Las Vegas in determining point spreads. These ratings consider every dual and tournament in the IndianaMat database for the whole year, with the exception of some specific early-season results for teams that played football late. The difference in rating between two teams represents roughly the expected point spread if those two teams wrestled a dual. Multiply that same point spread by 3 to estimate the favored team's expected gap in a tournament. Y2 will post these as sortable by class soon. If you've paid attention to these ratings before, you may notice that the top 5 teams this season have very high ratings. All schools 3-5 are the highest-rated teams in those slots that we've seen in the 9 years of doing this. Also, Brownsburg's score is only .02 off of the highest score we've seen.

Rank Team Name Rating SoS SoS Rank
1 Brownsburg 114.83 79.53 1
2 Perry Meridian 109.82 58.58 10
3 Evansville Mater Dei 107.66 61.12 6
4 Indianapolis Cathedral 105.66 56.31 16
5 Portage 105.16 66.92 2
6 Warren Central 94.38 50.57 32
7 Avon 90.26 63.86 3
8 Columbus East 90.20 62.39 4
9 Harrison (WL) 90.15 44.05 66
10 Crown Point 88.91 50.85 30
11 Chesterton 86.26 49.06 37
12 North Montgomery 84.50 43.24 68
13 Carmel 84.17 41.92 76
14 Merrillville 80.72 56.34 15
15 Penn 80.07 60.76 8
16 Zionsville 76.65 56.22 17
17 Castle 76.57 49.87 34
18 Roncalli 76.08 45.97 55
19 Wawasee 75.28 39.61 87
20 Northridge 75.15 37.11 117
21 Hamilton Southeastern 74.94 46.22 51
22 Western 74.49 39.20 91
23 Mishawaka 74.42 60.97 7
24 Yorktown 73.51 53.06 22
25 Prairie Heights 73.18 46.91 48
26 Carroll(Fort Wayne) 72.48 53.61 21
27 Hobart 71.62 44.89 62
28 Floyd Central 70.65 47.87 42
29 Oak Hill 70.55 28.46 217
30 Garrett 69.96 45.46 58
31 Center Grove 69.79 57.43 14
32 Pendleton Heights 69.62 45.90 56
33 LaPorte 68.40 51.62 26
34 Franklin Community 67.27 58.13 12
35 Jimtown 67.20 36.72 120
36 Westfield 66.76 52.16 24
37 Bloomington South 66.01 51.67 25
38 Edgewood 63.98 44.76 64
39 Lawrence North 63.32 58.28 11
40 Greenfield-Central 62.79 48.38 40
41 Central Noble 62.60 34.06 151
42 Knightstown 61.86 21.19 269
43 North Central 61.64 55.55 18
44 Jeffersonville 61.21 42.62 73
45 New Palestine 60.99 38.73 102
46 Peru 60.65 39.21 90
47 New Prairie 60.37 28.50 215
48 North Posey 60.24 40.40 84
49 Goshen 60.19 47.09 45
50 Attica 59.51 23.00 258
51 Mooresville 58.90 48.77 39
52 Fort Wayne Snider 58.77 31.80 182
53 Monrovia 58.57 28.15 219
54 Plymouth 58.16 37.42 111
55 Frankton 58.04 33.68 158
56 Lowell 57.77 47.44 44
57 Plainfield 57.69 46.60 50
58 Jennings County 57.29 37.38 113
59 McCutcheon 56.96 44.86 63
60 South Dearborn 56.43 32.79 169
61 East Central 56.02 43.22 69
62 Mount Vernon (Fortville) 55.23 42.38 75
63 Southridge 55.17 37.03 118
64 Milan 54.86 24.45 247
65 Leo 54.54 43.12 70
66 Hammond Gavit 53.92 16.71 292
67 Kankakee Valley 53.71 29.33 210
68 Marion 53.46 29.75 205
69 Huntington North 53.02 48.05 41
70 Bellmont 52.96 57.54 13
71 Adams Central 52.89 44.68 65
72 New Haven 52.80 45.09 61
73 Elkhart Central 52.03 51.40 28
74 Southmont 51.99 34.60 144
75 Lawrence Central 51.93 54.07 20
76 Eastern (Greentown) 51.81 28.31 218
77 Noblesville 51.22 42.64 72
78 Lafayette Jefferson 51.22 35.66 129
79 Ben Davis 51.19 59.74 9
80 Homestead 51.09 40.24 85
81 Anderson 50.98 31.39 186
82 Greencastle 50.42 30.72 193
83 Terre Haute South 50.29 35.48 134
84 Elkhart Memorial 49.74 51.00 29
85 Culver Academies 49.63 31.93 180
86 West Vigo 49.50 31.38 187
87 Jay County 49.43 30.64 194
88 Lawrenceburg 49.31 39.06 97
89 Muncie Central 49.23 34.21 147
90 Martinsville 48.94 48.94 38
91 Lake Central 48.77 61.19 5
92 Fort Wayne Bishop Dwenger 48.56 35.50 132
93 Maconaquah 48.42 32.22 174
94 Highland 48.33 36.43 124
95 Vincennes Lincoln 48.14 36.48 123
96 New Castle 47.37 33.84 155
97 Indian Creek 47.27 52.65 23
98 Southport 46.41 34.20 149
99 Centerville 46.24 22.92 259
100 Evansville Reitz 46.05 54.91 19
101 Gibson Southern 45.99 35.53 131
102 Churubusco 45.60 33.65 160
103 Rochester 45.59 32.22 173
104 Fishers 45.27 41.02 81
105 Concord 45.15 38.35 104
106 Delta 45.12 45.66 57
107 Boonville 44.24 25.37 239
108 Eastside 44.12 33.31 163
109 Greenwood 43.82 50.08 33
110 Pike Central 43.74 13.86 303
111 Whiteland 43.45 46.11 53
112 West Lafayette 43.29 29.86 202
113 Cass 43.03 26.93 229
114 Lakeland 42.23 38.73 103
115 Franklin County 41.97 33.46 161
116 New Albany 41.62 39.27 89
117 Seymour 41.35 37.77 109
118 Madison 40.94 20.00 277
119 Columbia City 40.86 41.72 77
120 Wabash 40.69 25.00 242
121 Calumet 40.42 46.08 54
122 Crawfordsville 40.37 27.57 222
123 Valparaiso 40.28 49.66 35
124 Decatur Central 40.10 34.63 143
125 Angola 39.92 36.15 126
126 Franklin Central 39.54 46.74 49
127 Fairhaven 39.28 33.15 164
128 Southern Wells 38.78 29.40 209
129 South Bend Riley 38.41 47.74 43
130 Rushville 38.24 33.10 165
131 Elwood 38.14 46.16 52
132 Evansville Memorial 37.94 40.87 82
133 Heritage Hills 37.84 31.85 181
134 Wheeler 37.26 29.81 204
135 Bloomington North 37.16 39.18 94
136 Shenandoah 36.39 34.44 146
137 Indianapolis Scecina 36.00 23.44 254
138 South Bend Washington 35.91 36.58 122
139 NorthWood 35.19 43.63 67
140 Pike 34.50 39.92 86
141 Manchester 34.05 30.53 195
142 Jasper 34.02 45.23 60
143 Rensselaer Central 33.35 24.84 245
144 North White 33.26 17.58 287
145 Eastern Hancock 32.93 30.47 198
146 East Noble 32.78 39.19 92
147 Mount Vernon (Posey) 32.44 27.13 226
148 Fairfield 31.96 39.19 93
149 Beech Grove 31.95 41.47 80
150 Twin Lakes 31.61 32.80 168
151 South Bend Adams 31.56 46.96 47
152 Lebanon 31.43 39.17 96
153 Evansville Central 31.02 41.59 79
154 South Adams 31.02 32.90 166
155 Triton Central 30.56 41.61 78
156 West Noble 30.46 35.30 137
157 Norwell 30.37 39.18 95
158 Indiana Deaf 29.56 10.36 313
159 Eastern (Pekin) 29.44 15.83 296
160 Winchester 29.27 31.74 183
161 Hamilton Heights 28.84 40.71 83
162 Triton 28.77 15.97 295
163 Columbus North 28.31 50.85 31
164 Benton Central 28.28 31.95 179
165 North Putnam 28.04 17.11 288
166 River Forest 27.77 30.33 200
167 South Vermillion 26.71 15.37 300
168 Lake Station Edison 26.13 37.96 108
169 Warsaw 25.69 45.43 59
170 LaVille 25.48 7.41 315
171 Danville 25.07 37.38 112
172 Monroe Central 24.77 19.64 280
173 Brown County 24.13 39.33 88
174 Tell City 23.47 29.82 203
175 Evansville North 22.88 35.32 136
176 Fort Wayne Concordia 22.83 35.09 139
177 Munster 22.62 51.53 27
178 Lapel 22.42 31.10 189
179 Kokomo 21.64 34.20 148
180 Indianapolis Bishop Chatard 21.56 34.59 145
181 Fort Wayne Northrop 21.41 35.76 127
182 Crawford County 21.33 -0.89 316
183 Rossville 21.31 20.98 273
184 Connersville 21.31 29.07 214
185 Northwestern 21.21 22.09 263
186 Michigan City 20.67 42.39 74
187 Logansport 20.41 38.84 99
188 Sheridan 20.25 21.34 268
189 West Central 20.14 24.96 244
190 Princeton 20.14 42.89 71
191 Boone Grove 20.10 18.75 282
192 Madison-Grant 19.96 31.61 184
193 Tipton 19.50 36.99 119
194 Shelbyville 19.26 35.50 133
195 Union City 19.07 21.15 271
196 Sullivan 18.90 21.01 272
197 Carroll (Flora) 18.90 23.30 255
198 Evansville Harrison 18.70 35.67 128
199 Fort Wayne South Side 18.33 30.77 192
200 Hammond 18.20 27.62 221
201 Terre Haute North 17.83 38.17 105
202 Richmond 17.32 33.97 152
203 Hagerstown 17.17 22.71 261
204 Fort Wayne Bishop Luers 16.75 24.09 249
205 Andrean 16.74 38.79 101
206 Alexandria 16.46 34.66 142
207 Griffith 15.92 46.98 46
208 DeKalb 15.39 38.00 107
209 Greensburg 15.22 35.15 138
210 Southwood 15.17 22.84 260
211 Winamac 14.82 24.19 248
212 Frankfort 14.74 34.89 141
213 Fountain Central 14.45 29.60 206
214 Owen Valley 14.13 23.65 252
215 Bluffton 14.04 26.30 234
216 Fort Wayne Wayne 13.68 37.15 116
217 Wes-Del 13.62 35.63 130
218 Cambridge City Lincoln 13.61 27.11 227
219 South Bend Clay 13.58 38.01 106
220 North Newton 13.46 25.87 236
221 Delphi 13.19 33.91 153
222 Clinton Prairie 12.87 16.69 293
223 Hanover Central 12.77 37.38 114
224 Mississinewa 12.62 36.63 121
225 Tippecanoe Valley 12.34 30.48 197
226 Daleville 12.28 24.53 246
227 Lafayette Central Catholic 11.99 25.56 238
228 Northview 11.49 38.82 100
229 Northfield 11.42 27.25 225
230 North Knox 11.38 21.82 265
231 South Putnam 11.30 33.74 156
232 Charlestown 10.54 32.22 175
233 Fremont 10.48 29.16 213
234 Bedford North Lawrence 10.41 29.46 208
235 Woodlan 10.24 32.88 167
236 Hammond Morton 9.95 30.93 190
237 Guerin Catholic 9.51 38.87 98
238 Seeger 9.25 18.73 283
239 Clinton Central 7.75 30.47 199
240 Knox 7.46 30.00 201
241 Tri-West 7.36 49.45 36
242 Faith Christian 7.34 8.79 314
243 Tri-Central 7.31 18.00 286
244 North Miami 6.53 32.79 170
245 Cloverdale 6.52 26.11 235
246 Cascade 5.58 33.85 154
247 Southwestern (Hanover) 5.26 23.01 257
248 Batesville 4.37 32.21 176
249 South Bend St. Joseph 4.21 33.71 157
250 John Glenn 3.85 23.85 251
251 South Spencer 3.84 36.24 125
252 Blackford 3.74 17.06 289
253 Indianapolis Lutheran 3.48 29.55 207
254 Rockville 3.37 11.42 310
255 Hebron 2.92 26.93 228
256 Tri 2.84 24.99 243
257 East Chicago Central 2.21 31.21 188
258 Howe School 2.03 35.03 140
259 Cowan 1.99 21.96 264
260 Scottsburg 1.59 16.45 294
261 North Harrison 1.19 27.50 223
262 Fort Wayne North Side 0.78 27.71 220
263 Eastbrook 0.77 26.70 231
264 South Newton 0.72 20.44 276
265 Hammond Clark 0.53 21.78 266
266 Indianapolis Arsenal Tech -0.23 30.88 191
267 Speedway -1.13 35.46 135
268 Western Boone -1.29 30.52 196
269 Tecumseh -1.30 18.85 281
270 Switzerland County -1.58 11.10 311
271 Union County -1.59 33.66 159
272 Westview -1.70 37.73 110
273 Northeastern -1.91 18.54 285
274 Whiting -2.63 26.59 232
275 North Judson -2.70 26.81 230
276 Hammond Bishop Noll -2.88 31.60 185
277 Indianapolis Arlington -2.98 16.91 290
278 Indianapolis Northwest -3.03 28.46 216
279 Frontier -3.37 23.64 253
280 Indianapolis Cardinal Ritter -4.31 27.37 224
281 Brebeuf Jesuit -4.68 32.42 171
282 Forest Park -4.76 24.04 250
283 New Washington -5.11 22.42 262
284 Paoli -5.13 29.24 211
285 North Vermillion -5.17 12.67 308
286 Whitko -5.47 33.37 162
287 Indianapolis Crispus Attucks -6.15 32.18 177
288 Indianapolis Marshall -6.15 32.18 178
289 Oldenburg Academy -6.90 25.66 237
290 Heritage -7.26 37.21 115
291 Providence -7.76 29.21 212
292 Indianapolis Manual -7.90 18.55 284
293 Randolph Southern -11.74 15.39 298
294 Culver Community -11.84 32.40 172
295 Evansville Bosse -11.91 21.19 270
296 Corydon Central -13.67 11.59 309
297 Caston -13.69 20.95 274
298 Mitchell -14.29 25.21 241
299 West Washington -14.79 19.93 279
300 Covington -14.92 16.88 291
301 Salem -16.30 10.49 312
302 Bremen -18.07 25.29 240
303 Indianapolis Broad Ripple -18.47 15.16 301
304 Taylor -21.39 26.39 233
305 Pioneer -22.90 14.87 302
306 Indianapolis Washington -23.74 12.78 306
307 Washington -24.77 20.76 275
308 Wood Memorial -24.92 12.68 307
309 Turkey Run -27.58 21.36 267
310 Providence Cristo Rey -28.13 15.37 299
311 Indianapolis Howe Community -29.36 15.61 297
312 Tri County -31.32 23.17 256
313 Wapahani -33.02 13.83 304
314 Blue River Valley -33.34 13.08 305
315 Gary West Side -33.43 34.08 150
316 Mishawaka Marian -48.10 19.98 278
         
Edited by maligned

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Always love your work on this.  Intersting that the top teams are the best youve seen.  Saw another post that had the list of teams that could have 4 or 3 state champs, which is difficult. That makes you ask the question, are the best teams  getting better and seperating themselves from the field more?  Or is this just an anamoly.  Anyway, the top teams are monopolzing the metal.  To quote the Rat "There arent many scraps left".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They're in the Team State procedures document that was posted early morning Saturday:

 

Edited by maligned

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great job.  Love it and its great for the sport and i will never be smart enough to understand all the ins and outs.

Its great motivation for our guys when they see several teams we have beaten ranked above us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed. A lot of work and great to see it made available.  Knightstown is a good example of being higher than several that have beaten them. It seems like some teams with higher SOS are at a disadvantage somehow. Not dinging Knightstown just an observation. Thanks for the time and effort putting these out!!!

Edited by RAJR
Spelling correction

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, RAJR said:

Agreed. A lot of work and great to see it made available.  Knightstown is a good example of being higher than several that have beaten them. It seems like some teams with higher SOS are at a disadvantage somehow. Not dinging Knightstown just an observation. Thanks for the time and effort putting these out!!!

Another school is Harrison thats weird.  They ended 9th this year in Genius.  They lost by 29 to Avon, but have an almost identical score.  Also lost, to Merrillville by 5, but 10 points ahead of them.  I know they had 30 matches to average in, and they ran the score up against median or below average teams.  So that might be whats bumping their score up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do the 32 team tournaments factor in with the strength of 31 dual meets? 

We snagged 5 dual wins against teams above us. The individual tournaments seem to be a weight chained to our ankle. 

I love these rankings; I stare at them for hours. I appreciate the system and want to know more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I noticed that several teams have ratings that are much higher than teams that beat them. Just a part of it I guess. 

Also... if you send a varsity 2 to wrestle a dual on your schedule... does that factor in? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Varsity 2 or B wouldnt affect a teams ranking.  The 2nd team would have its own rating, but just not reported here.  The match wrestled against varsity b would affect that teams rating and sos.  So its important to identify a team as JV when reporting a score, so not to mix teams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jcjcjc said:

Do the 32 team tournaments factor in with the strength of 31 dual meets? 

We snagged 5 dual wins against teams above us. The individual tournaments seem to be a weight chained to our ankle. 

I love these rankings; I stare at them for hours. I appreciate the system and want to know more.

No...each mini "competition" between you and 31 other teams in a large tournament is weighted at 30%. So the entire tournament performance is equivalent to roughly 9 duals (31 x 0.3)

 

4 hours ago, Wrestling Scholar said:

Another school is Harrison thats weird.  They ended 9th this year in Genius.  They lost by 29 to Avon, but have an almost identical score.  Also lost, to Merrillville by 5, but 10 points ahead of them.  I know they had 30 matches to average in, and they ran the score up against median or below average teams.  So that might be whats bumping their score up.

Yes, there are always a few schools that you can see that ran up the score against weaker opponents than other schools rated around them faced.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ahhhh

 

19 Duals= 19 duals

32 team tournament= 9.3 Duals 

8 team tournament: 2.1 Duals

7 team tournament=1.8 Duals 

 

My brain is catching up. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, maligned said:

 

Yes, there are always a few schools that you can see that ran up the score against weaker opponents than other schools rated around them faced.  

I know that many schools will run out some second and third string kids when wrestling a lesser team. It gives those kids a chance to get some varsity experience and allows your opponent to actually have a chance to get better as well (not just pinned in a few seconds). Really a win / win for both teams. 

I realize that there is no perfect system and this most likely is the best we got. I guess a good way to ensure that you make it to team state is to pound weaker teams every chance you can. Hate to see this, but see no way around it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mattyb said:

I know that many schools will run out some second and third string kids when wrestling a lesser team. It gives those kids a chance to get some varsity experience and allows your opponent to actually have a chance to get better as well (not just pinned in a few seconds). Really a win / win for both teams. 

I realize that there is no perfect system and this most likely is the best we got. I guess a good way to ensure that you make it to team state is to pound weaker teams every chance you can. Hate to see this, but see no way around it. 

I don't think putting out a second string kid affects the rating very much.   The data is pulled from over 3200 dual meets and multiple tournaments.  If you look at it, most teams have kids out injured, sick or just getting 2nd string experience.   I think the genius ratings measure the overall depth of a team throughout the whole season.

Anyway,  you guys (Avon) were in one of the highest rated sectionals with a (5) and you're regional is the only (6).   So your sectional and regional have maxed their Quota opportunities  and significantly improves your chances  scoring team state points,  and the only way you go guys don't make top 10 in team state scoring is to implode in the next two weekends,  which is very unlikely.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Wrestling Scholar said:

I don't think putting out a second string kid affects the rating very much.   The data is pulled from over 3200 dual meets and multiple tournaments.  If you look at it, most teams have kids out injured, sick or just getting 2nd string experience.   I think the genius ratings measure the overall depth of a team throughout the whole season.

Anyway,  you guys (Avon) were in one of the highest rated sectionals with a (5) and you're regional is the only (6).   So your sectional and regional have maxed their Quota opportunities  and significantly improves your chances  scoring team state points,  and the only way you go guys don't make top 10 in team state scoring is to implode in the next two weekends,  which is very unlikely.  

My observations were not directed to my teams chances. We have a ton of talent coming back. Pretty sure that we are going to make it again. My observations were just about the process. With this said, the wild card vote in really helps a good team that doesn't feel the need to pound much lesser teams. Again, I believe that the system is the best that we can get.. just bring up a point of interest.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Jcjcjc said:

Ahhhh

 

19 Duals= 19 duals

32 team tournament= 9.3 Duals 

8 team tournament: 2.1 Duals

7 team tournament=1.8 Duals 

 

My brain is catching up. 

normal tournaments are weighted times 0.4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Mattyb said:

I know that many schools will run out some second and third string kids when wrestling a lesser team. It gives those kids a chance to get some varsity experience and allows your opponent to actually have a chance to get better as well (not just pinned in a few seconds). Really a win / win for both teams. 

I realize that there is no perfect system and this most likely is the best we got. I guess a good way to ensure that you make it to team state is to pound weaker teams every chance you can. Hate to see this, but see no way around it. 

These ratings have nothing to do with the Team State qualification process other than helping us assign the Category levels for sectionals and regionals. You earn your place during the state tournament series. These ratings are for entertainment purposes only. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, maligned said:

These ratings have nothing to do with the Team State qualification process other than helping us assign the Category levels for sectionals and regionals. You earn your place during the state tournament series. These ratings are for entertainment purposes only. 

Come on, that's just untrue. They determine what regional 4th placer doesn't score for his team while a phantom fifth placer does.  

Incredibly misleading for you to say they have nothing to do with the qualification process.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, backtothemat said:

4 of the top 8 have to cruise through the Evv (aka TripleB's Dirty South) SS.

This year 6 of the top 12 class 3A teams are in the same SS.

Boom

Based on the Ratings per SS -- 

New Castle - 2, 4, 6, 12, 13, 16, 18, 21

East Chicago - 5, 9, 10, 11, 14, 15, 19, 23

Evansville - 1, 3, 7, 8, 17

Fort Wayne - 20, 22, 24, 25

     

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, bog190 said:

Come on, that's just untrue. They determine what regional 4th placer doesn't score for his team while a phantom fifth placer does.  

Incredibly misleading for you to say they have nothing to do with the qualification process.

These ratings do not reflect your qualification score...you're earning that during the state tournament series.   ...is what I meant. I think people may have gotten confused that these were somehow connected to what particular teams' scores will be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, maligned said:

These ratings do not reflect your qualification score...you're earning that during the state tournament series.   ...is what I meant. I think people may have gotten confused that these were somehow connected to what particular teams' scores will be.

Far from "for entertainment purposes only" but thanks for the clarification.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Malgned,  

Is there a difference between the way a genius rating is calculated vs how a Sagarin RPI rating is? Sagarin is what  NCAA uses and used to used in the BCS football bowl.  I know its similar, but just wondering if  any subtle differences.

 

By the way, im entertained by the genius.

Edited by Wrestling Scholar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess I wonder why team A is bellow team B when team A beat team B's starting varsity line up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

Sign in to follow this  

×