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maligned

Genius Ratings 2018

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The ratings are strictly a compilation of the score differences between you and everyone else thru the whole season. If you beat a team by 5 but they were better than you by 1 point per match in the rest of their 20 matches, their rating will be slightly higher than yours because there's no consideration for one specific event: only your full season performance.

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9 hours ago, maligned said:

The ratings are strictly a compilation of the score differences between you and everyone else thru the whole season. If you beat a team by 5 but they were better than you by 1 point per match in the rest of their 20 matches, their rating will be slightly higher than yours because there's no consideration for one specific event: only your full season performance.

One more point with this: these ratings are trying to capture "true quality", which is measured most effectively by overall point differential--not strict wins and losses. For example:

Team A beats Garrett by 3

Team A beats Wawasee by 3

Team B beats Garrett by 20

Wawasee beats Team B by 3

Knowing nothing else, who do you think wins a dual between Team A and Team B? Do you think Team A is better because they're 2-0 compared to 1-1, or is Team B better because they're +17 compared to only +6 overall in these duals? History in every team sport on the planet shows that the +17 compared to the +6 is a much better predictor of genuine quality than the 2-0 over the 1-1. Genius would have Team B favored over Team A by 3.5 points.

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11 hours ago, Wrestling Scholar said:

Malgned,  

Is there a difference between the way a genius rating is calculated vs how a Sagarin RPI rating is? Sagarin is what  NCAA uses and used to used in the BCS football bowl.  I know its similar, but just wondering if  any subtle differences.

 

By the way, im entertained by the genius.

I don't think you meant to say "RPI". That's the highly flawed rating that college basketball, baseball, and wrestling use in their tournament seeding processes. I think you mean just Sagarin ratings. 

In fact, there are several common-ish ways to arrive at points-based ratings. Although Sagarin doesn't make his methods public, the system I'm using here yields results in other sports that are very, very similar to Sagarin's results in two of the four points-based systems he publishes.

Mine starts with SRS (https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2015/03/srs-calculation-details/) and makes some adjustments for the specifics of wrestling results. I believe one of Sagarin's ratings uses SRS as a starting point also. SRS yields results very similar to Least Squares ratings, which Sagarin definitely uses as one of his four points-based ratings and which another famous ratings guy, Kenneth Massey, outlines here: https://www.masseyratings.com/theory/ls.htm

Both SRS and Least Squares will yield results in any sport very near the lines that Vegas will use. Oddsmakers start with these types of ratings to determine rough lines, then adjust slightly for injuries, trends, matchups, referees, and public perception to leverage the best chance to make money.

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1 hour ago, maligned said:

I don't think you meant to say "RPI". That's the highly flawed rating that college basketball, baseball, and wrestling use in their tournament seeding processes. I think you mean just Sagarin ratings. 

In fact, there are several common-ish ways to arrive at points-based ratings. Although Sagarin doesn't make his methods public, the system I'm using here yields results in other sports that are very, very similar to Sagarin's results in two of the four points-based systems he publishes.

Mine starts with SRS (https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2015/03/srs-calculation-details/) and makes some adjustments for the specifics of wrestling results. I believe one of Sagarin's ratings uses SRS as a starting point also. SRS yields results very similar to Least Squares ratings, which Sagarin definitely uses as one of his four points-based ratings and which another famous ratings guy, Kenneth Massey, outlines here: https://www.masseyratings.com/theory/ls.htm

Both SRS and Least Squares will yield results in any sport very near the lines that Vegas will use. Oddsmakers start with these types of ratings to determine rough lines, then adjust slightly for injuries, trends, matchups, referees, and public perception to leverage the best chance to make money.

That was one of the more of educational posts ive seen.   Just from lack of my knowledge,  I thought RPI was a general term for all ratings.  I know better now.   

Interesting that you point out that the Sagarin and Massey are good in your (knowledgeable) opinion,  but the RPI is "highly flawed" although the most relevant.   Its Ironic as you mentioned that the RPI is really important, as its used by the NCAA basketball committee in selection process and in wrestling, its the primary factor in choosing quotas of National qualifiers for the NCAA wrestling.     So in laymans terms, why is the RPI flawed?   And does the NCAA know this and should they be using one of these alternate methods?   Maybe the NCAA should be driving down to Vincennes and contract Maligned to run their ratings index for wrestling.  Seriously.

Anyway,  Illinois and Ohio have good wrestling and wrestlebacks, but they don't have a genius rating.  At least that I know of.

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A couple of questions:

 

Is their a factor that is used to account for variations or changes in lineup that may account for drastically different point differentials from one match to the next? (Also, how are B Team Results included, because this is the case with many B Teams) 

 

 

Is there anywhere else that uses this type of formula to rank wrestling teams? 


 

 

 

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