Full disclosure -- I coach at a small school in the Avon sectional. I appreciate all the hard work and time that has gone into making the IHSWCA Team State a top-notch event. Those who have taken the time to research and develop this system have done a tremendous job; however, I am not convinced that using data from the State Tournament Series for the previous three years is the most effective method to determine the strength of individual sectionals and regionals (and therefore the quota categories) for the current year. This method does not account for the sudden emergence of very strong teams (Brownsburg) or the decline of other teams in the paired sectional. I will use the Mooresville Regional as an example since it is the one with which I am familiar. I am sure there are other scenarios similar to this at other sites as well.
The Mooresville sectional was given a quota category of 6, meaning that the top 6 placers from Mooresville would likely qualify for the regional in an average sectional. This implies that the Mooresville sectional is extraordinarily difficult and should therefore dominate an average sectional. The Avon sectional was given a quota category of 4, meaning that it is simply an average sectional. You would think that the category 6 sectional would completely dominate the category 4 sectional. In the case of the Mooresville regional though, the opposite proved true. Here are some numbers from the Mooresville regional:
Regional Champions Avon -- 11 Mooresville -- 3
Regional Finalists Avon -- 16 Mooresville -- 12
SS Qualifiers Avon -- 29 Mooresville -- 27
Head-to-head Avon had the advantage 51-38
I am not trying to degrade the Mooresville sectional, there are many great wrestlers there. I am simply trying to show that it appears the IHSWCA quota formula missed the mark on this one. I know at least one instance where a 4th place finisher from the Avon sectional pinned a regional champ and another ss qualifier both from average quota regionals. This is a kid who may be a ss caliber wrestler, but according to the formula used to calculate Team State scores he is only a 4th place sectional finisher. There is a big difference between being a ss qualifier and a 4th place sectional finisher when you consider dual meet implications.
I don't know the answer, but I am willing to offer a suggestion. Would it possible and/or feasible to calculate quotas based on the results of the current year State Tournament Series? Maybe a point system could be developed where sectionals and regionals within each individual SS could be assigned a quota based on the number of athletes who win, place, or qualify for the State Finals. For example, a sectional with 4 State Finalists, 2 State placers and 1 State Champion would obviously provide a much more difficult path than one with 1 State Qualifier.
Again, I appreciate all the work that has gone into this system. I am just offering one possible tweak.