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Genius Ratings sneak peek


maligned

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The Genius ratings will be published later tonight or this weekend. (They're finished...just takes some time to get them into the system.)

 

Remember that Genius POTENTIAL is strictly score-based and uses the same type of algorithm that's used as the baseline in determining point spreads in all sports. It is a much more accurate predictor of true talent and future results than wins/losses based metrics. All dual meets in the IndianaMat system are used. Also, all tournament results are "converted" to dual meet scores and added into the ratings because of how reliable they are in predicting dual meet results. Duals are weighted much more than tournaments and are therefore the bulk of the determining factor in this rating.

 

Here's a sneak peek at the Top 30. The difference in any 2 teams' rating is their predicted score differential for a dual meet:

 

1.Perry Meridian 114.85

2.Brownsburg 112.63

3.Avon 104.62

4.Portage 103.87

5.Evansville Mater Dei 96.46

6.North Montgomery 93.09

7.Yorktown 92.07

8.Cathedral 90.86

9.Castle 89.45

10.Merrillville 88.29

11.Carroll 86.42

12.Penn 85.95

13.Columbus East 83.85

14.Chesterton 83.64

15.Bellmont 82.23

16.Carmel 82.00

17.Zionsville 80.36

18.Harrison WL 79.89

19.Prairie Heights 79.07

20.Hamilton SE 77.07

21.Floyd Central 77.02

22.Roncalli 76.66

23.Edgewood 74.46

24.Crown Point 74.08

25.Jeffersonville 71.88

26.Jimtown 71.64

27.Lowell 71.24

28.Warren Central 70.47

29.Oak Hill 69.13

30.Shenandoah 68.71

 

It's not always posted on this site, but we also compile a rating called Genius REWARD that considers only wins and losses. Scores don't matter at all. This rating is a less reliable indicator of your genuine quality and is less predictive of future match results, but it can appear to be a more intuitive "reward" for wins and losses in the context of your schedule, rewarding you for nice wins and penalizing a weak schedule. The algorithm used here is similar to a couple of the "computer ratings" used in the old BCS college football system.

 

1.Brownsburg 111.45

2.Portage 98.35

3.Perry Meridian 98.18

4.Avon 97.19

5.EMD 96.56

6.Yorktown 94.23

7.Merrillville 91.38

8.Carmel 89.97

9.Penn 86.65

10.Carroll 84.57

11.Castle 84.42

12.Warren Central 83.76

13.Indianapolis Cathedral 82.78

14.Columbus East 81.69

15.Prairie Heights 79.46

16.Zionsville 78.81

17.North Montgomery 78.32

18.Bellmont 77.90

19.Center Grove 75.83

20.Floyd Central 75.17

 

 

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To further explain the above two rating systems:

 

POTENTIAL only cares about your overall scoring--not specific dual meet results. For example, the TribleB's go 4-1, including beating the Gorillas, and finish the day +59 in total dual meet point differential. Meanwhile, the Gorillas go 3-2 and lose a 1-point match to the TripleB's, but finish +75 in total dual meet point differential. POTENTIAL is smart enough to know that the +75 vs. +59 totals for FIVE matches are more important indicators of true talent than the narrow victory by the TripleB's in only ONE match. POTENTIAL rates the Gorillas a little higher, predicting that their future performances this season will be better than the TripleB's.

 

REWARD only cares about winning and losing. In the above scenario, it only cares about the 4 and the 1 for the TripleB's and the 3 and the 2 for the Gorillas--totally ignoring the dual meet scores. Thus, it produces a fairly intuitive rating in terms of who beat whom so far, but does not do nearly as good of a job of telling us who will win future matches.

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If you go to the team area you can select the custom sorting and sort by genius rating. You can also select any of the criteria on the left such as semi-state, class, or IHSWCA Team state.

Gotcha...so, Coach Lynch, just click on "custom" in the team list, then click "Genius Rating" in the "sort by" list and "descending Z-A" in the order list. Then click on the class you want to the left of the school list and it will bring up an ordered ranking.

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Do you have a form that would show each teams trend? What teams are improving over the period of time you have been doing the genius rankings? Is that possible to put together?

You mean like year to year?

Finally North Montgomery gets the love they deserve. #FireDane

I agree that NM have been underrated, but Dane's rankings are mostly wins-losses based rather than predictive. You can see that the wins-losses metric here--REWARD--has them exactly the same as Dane--#17. Edited by maligned
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So .... how much does a team go up if they wrestle let's say ..... 3-4 Nationally Ranked Teams in a individual tournament but still get Team points for the Team Championship ? (SOS) . What's the Difference between Dual & individual when calculating this ? Is this just based on Duals ? Just a question

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So .... how much does a team go up if they wrestle let's say ..... 3-4 Nationally Ranked Teams in a individual tournament but still get Team points for the Team Championship ? (SOS) . What's the Difference between Dual & individual when calculating this ? Is this just based on Duals ? Just a question

Standard tournament scoring yields point differentials 3 times higher than duals. This means that a 30-point difference between Brownsburg and Avon in a tournament can be converted to a virtual 10-point dual win. When you wrestle a tournament, we consider your score vs. each other team's score as a mini "competition". But because those tournament results are a little less predictive of your future duals results than actual duals, we only weight each mini "competition" 30 to 40% of an actual dual. Genius POTENTIAL is calculated by taking all of your season point differentials and considering them in the context of your opponents' strength, your opponents' opponents' strength...and so on, interconnecting you with all other teams in the state. Out-of-state results are always compiled, but they really only affect the rankings if multiple Indiana teams wrestled the same out-of-state team or teams--creating points of connection between you and other Indiana teams.

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We'll publish team state qualification procedures this week. The assigned sectional and regional category levels are part of that document. There's definitely always a bit of movement from year to year.

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